The price of ethylene glycol fell in March
The price of ethylene glycol will decrease in March 2025. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of March 31, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4521.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% from the average price of 4681.67 yuan/ton on March 1.
On March 31, 2025, the basis of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol spot contract was relatively high, and the transaction price range for this week’s contract was between 4470-4504 yuan/ton (excluding collective transactions). This week’s spot contract basis quotation is+42 to+46, next week’s spot contract basis quotation is+51 to+53, and April’s spot contract basis quotation is+65 to+67.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 4220-4250 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of March 31st, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China is 524-528 US dollars/ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia is 536 US dollars/ton.
Port inventory fluctuated horizontally in March
From January to mid February, there was a significant accumulation of ethylene glycol inventory in the port, and in March, the port inventory fluctuated horizontally. On March 27, 2025, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 680000 tons, an increase of 8800 tons compared to the total inventory of 671200 tons on March 3; Compared to December 30, 2024, the total inventory was 397300 tons, an increase of 282700 tons.
The main reasons for the weak downward trend of ethylene glycol in March are as follows:
In March, due to the decline in raw material prices, coal to ethylene glycol production was boosted by profits, resulting in unexpected spring inspections and delayed maintenance of some parts.
The estimated arrival volume at the port in March is around 650000 tons, and the import supply is also relatively sufficient.
Under the high production of downstream polyester, the demand increase is limited, and the terminal expectations are weak, resulting in negative feedback on the expected raw material ethylene glycol.
The main reasons for the expected rebound in ethylene glycol prices in April are as follows:
Recently, international crude oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the drag of cost has slowed down. Coupled with the significant decline in ethylene glycol, the downward space has narrowed.
Starting from April, the planned maintenance volume for spring inspections has increased, and the expected domestic supply of ethylene glycol has weakened.
There is a maintenance plan in April, and it is expected that the production of ethylene glycol from synthetic gas will be around 550000 tons in April.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market in March was in a consolidation operation, and the price adjustment range of most brand products was relatively narrow. As of April 1st, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 763.33 yuan/ton, which has increased or decreased by 0.62% compared to the price level at the beginning of March.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
At the end of February and the beginning of March, the geopolitical conflict in Eastern Europe eased, and the news of oil producing countries’ plans to increase production also affected the trend of PP’s upstream crude oil. In late March, some potential negative factors were digested, and oil prices rebounded from low levels. However, due to the negative transmission of crude oil in the early stage and the drag of lower than expected trading, the spot price of propylene broke through and fell during the month. The price of propane mainly fluctuates with crude oil, while inventory is relatively low, and overall it is operating steadily. Overall, the PP raw material market in March showed mixed ups and downs, providing moderate support for PP costs.
Supply side:
After the increase in domestic PP enterprise load in March, there was a pullback, and the market supply remained generally abundant. Overall, the industry’s overall load level has decreased by about 1% to 76% compared to the beginning of the month, and the domestic weekly average production has returned to nearly 730000 tons by the end of the month. The interval is in the stage of capacity implementation blank, and some enterprises have reduced their load to varying degrees due to maintenance tasks within the month. In terms of the future market, there have been mutual occurrences of maintenance and resumption of work recently. Domestic supply is generally abundant and stable. The supply side’s support for PP spot prices has flattened.
In terms of demand:
In March, the demand side of PP slowly improved, with on-site insurance holding essential needs. In terms of plastic weaving, the consumption level of terminal enterprises has generally stabilized. The demand for PP in fields such as architecture and agriculture is slowly increasing with the warming temperatures. Buyers tend to maintain production through scattered small orders in their purchasing operations. Although there has not been a significant increase in new orders in the market, the benefits are due to factors such as policies, which continue to release consumer willingness. Overall, the demand side performance of PP in March was decent, but due to the background of weak overseas macroeconomics and the impact of US tariffs, there was a significant breakthrough in export resistance.
Future forecast
In March, the domestic PP market prices remained stable with slight increases. From a fundamental perspective, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average, with slight fluctuations in industry supply, strong demand support in consumption, market supply-demand competition, and a temporary balance between long and short positions. In the short term, the PP market is moving moderately, and the price trend may continue to consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market will rise in March 2025, with an average price of 17005 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17225 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 1.29%.
On March 30th, the Business Society Lead Index was 105.44, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 21.32% from the highest point of 134.01 points (November 29, 2016) during the cycle, and an increase of 41.28% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
On a macro level, in early March, the news of the United States imposing tariffs continued to have an impact on the market, leading to increased concerns and subsequently suppressing the trend of non-ferrous metal futures. At the same time, the convening of China’s “Two Sessions” has brought a series of policy measures aimed at promoting consumption.
In March, both the supply and demand sides of the lead market showed a growth trend, and did not encounter any significant negative factors. During this period, heavy pollution weather warnings in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region and its surrounding areas were lifted, easing environmental pressure. Environmental inspections are currently underway in the Anhui region, which has had a certain impact on the supply of lead in the market. In addition, the newly built recycled lead production capacity in Jiangsu has been put into operation as planned, providing additional supply to the market, resulting in periodic fluctuations in lead market supply.
The electric bicycle and automobile markets are actively promoting the “trade in” promotion activity, which has driven the sales of some complete vehicles and their supporting batteries to recover, thereby alleviating the concerns of production enterprises about the off-season market. The production of lead-acid battery enterprises remains relatively stable as a result. After the drop in lead prices, some companies seized the opportunity to make bargain hunting purchases, but overall, the market’s purchasing willingness remains relatively flat.
Overall, from the perspective of spot supply, the production of primary lead and recycled lead is expected to show a downward trend, especially considering that delivery brand enterprises are about to undergo equipment maintenance, the supply of lead ingots in mainstream production areas will decrease. Therefore, refineries may maintain a high price strategy when shipping. Pay attention to changes in supply in the short term.

price trend
In March, nickel prices rose to the mid to low level of the year and fluctuated.
According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on March 16th, nickel prices reached a monthly high of 134991 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.11% from the beginning of the month and a new high in nearly five months; At the end of the month, it fell back to 132066 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 3.81%.
Macro positive support
The signal of domestic economic recovery is clear: the two sessions set targets for GDP growth of 5% and CPI of 2%, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in February (50.2)
Overseas policy disturbance: The cooling of US inflation strengthens expectations of interest rate cuts, but the market expects US tariffs on copper to reshape trade flows
Catalysis of sudden mining events
The conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to the shutdown of the world’s third-largest tin mine, and sentiment in the non-ferrous sector is heating up
Indonesia’s nickel mine policy implements measures such as foreign exchange control and resource tax rate hike, intensifying supply side competition
Dual line game of supply and demand
Supply pressure still exists
Global explicit inventory continues to accumulate: On March 28th, LME nickel inventory increased by 5340 tons per month to reach 200304 tons, while Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 872 tons per month to 26799 tons
The price of nickel ore in Indonesia has slightly increased, and if policies such as tax reform are implemented, it may raise the cost of the nickel industry chain
Demand resilience is evident
Stainless steel field: In March, stainless steel prices first rose and then fluctuated at a high level. As of the end of March, the spot price of stainless steel was 12628.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.51% from 12200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a year-on-year increase of 0.55%. Infrastructure investment provides support, and demand is expected to moderately recover in the second quarter
New energy track: The trend towards high-end and export-oriented ternary batteries is clear, and the demand for nickel is structurally stable
Electroplating and alloys: Demand is relatively stable, buying at low prices and taking on urgent needs.
Future prospects
Short term nickel prices may maintain a strong range of fluctuations, with a focus on:
The final implementation pace of Indonesian policies
→ Inventory turnover during peak season for new energy vehicle consumption
Changes in overseas macro liquidity expectations

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in China was 6760 yuan/ton on March 1st, and 6760 yuan/ton on March 27th. The market price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in China has remained stable this month.
2、 Market analysis
This month, the phosphoric acid market has fluctuated with ups and downs, mainly operating in a volatile manner. In the first half of this month, the domestic phosphoric acid market remained stable with small fluctuations, and prices in some regions fell. The phosphoric acid market mainly digests early-stage orders, with limited market transactions. In mid month, the market for phosphoric acid rose. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, leading to an increase in cost support. Phosphoric acid companies have followed suit with the price increase of raw materials. At the end of this month, the market price of phosphoric acid fell. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and cost support has weakened. The phosphoric acid market is mainly cautious and cautious, with prices slightly falling.
As of March 27th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-6900 yuan/ton, in Sichuan region it is around 6700-6900 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan region it is around 6600-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6600-7300 yuan/ton.
Raw material yellow phosphorus market. This month, the market price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell. In the first half of this month, the price of yellow phosphorus continued to rise. The supply of yellow phosphorus in the market is tight, and manufacturers have raised prices, resulting in low market inventory. At the end of this month, the price of yellow phosphorus fell. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with downstream demand for replenishment and cautious procurement. It is expected that the short-term yellow phosphorus market will remain stagnant, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.
3、 Future forecast
The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the phosphate market has been stable with a weak trend in recent days. At present, the stable price of raw material yellow phosphorus is the main focus, and the phosphoric acid market remains cautious, with a balanced supply and demand in the market. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will remain stable and stable in the short term.