Liquefied natural gas prices continue to bottom (9.01-9.24)

Price Trend

The average price of liquefied natural gas was 2973.33 yuan/ton in early September, and 2863.33 yuan/ton in the end of September 24, showing a downward trend of 3.7%. Prices fell 36.72% over the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: According to the data of business associations, as of September 24, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Ordos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 2870 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia Etok Qianqi Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 2850 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Zizhou LNG Plant of Shaanxi Luyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 2900 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Guanghui LNG Development Co., Ltd. is about 2300 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Qinshui New Olympics in Shanxi is 3100 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Shaanxi Zhongyuan LNG Co., Ltd. is 2870 yuan/ton. The Qinghua Energy Group in Xinjiang has the LNG price of 2870 yuan/ton. LNG Company Limited is priced at 3200 yuan/ton. Fluid prices vary from place to place and are generally at a low level.

Market analysis: In September, the liquefied petroleum gas market declined as a whole. In early September, affected by the northwest gas restriction, and some manufacturers have overhaul, the overall supply declined, boosting the liquefied natural gas market, LNG prices stopped falling and rebounded all the way up, reaching a peak of 3056.67 yuan/ton on the 4th, and the market is optimistic. However, 10 days after the end of the restriction, the market returned to normal supply, the liquor factory adjusted according to its own situation, the market atmosphere of LNG faded, major manufacturers to prepare for the pre-festival storage, have lowered the price of liquids, the market returned to its previous decline. At the end of the Mid-Autumn Festival, LNG power was restored and factory inventory was generally on the high side. In order to stimulate shipments, prices were lowered one after another. Near National Day, the upstream bidding is difficult, the mood of pre-festival warehouse is obvious, coupled with the high-speed restriction soon, major manufacturers continue to reduce prices and interest shipments, and some manufacturers due to the lower level in the early stage, price increases, but the overall trend is still weak. At present, the downstream demand is weak, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the situation of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and there is no good signal in the market for the time being.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are four kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices on September 23, 2019. The top three commodities are methanol (0.55%), MTBE (0.51%) and fuel oil (0.43%). There are 8 kinds of commodities that have declined annually. The first three products are liquefied gas (-3.52%), coking coal (-0.87%) and liquefied natural gas (-0.57%). The average daily rise and fall was -0.28%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Liquefied Natural Gas analysts of business associations believe that the National Day holidays are approaching, in order to avoid poor transportation during the holidays and increase inventory, factories mostly promote sales before the holidays, and the domestic liquefied natural gas market is expected to maintain a steady downward trend in the short term.