First, the price trend
According to business data monitoring, zinc prices fluctuated this week. As of September 21, the average price of zinc ingots was 22690.00 yuan / ton, compared with the price of zinc 21672.50 yuan / ton last weekend, the price rose by 1062.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.91%; compared with the price of 21,492.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, the price rose by 1197.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.57%, down 12.97% year-on-year. The performance of the zinc market picked up this week, and the price of zinc fluctuated.
Second, the market trend analysis
Product aspects:
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On September 21, the LME market in London closed at a price of US$2,468/ton, which was a price of US$2,313/ton from the beginning of September (September 17). The price rose by US$155/ton, and the price of zinc rose sharply. On September 21, Shanghai futures market futures zinc closing price was 22,415 yuan / ton, compared with the opening price of 21,480 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, the price rose 935 yuan / ton. Futures zinc prices rose sharply, and the zinc market rose. This week, the inventory of zinc ingot warehouse receipts in Shanghai futures market fell. On September 21, the inventory of zinc ingot warehouse receipts was 5,581 tons, which was 6635 tons lower than the inventory receipts at the beginning of this week. The inventory decreased by 1255 tons. The zinc market transaction was warmer and had a positive impact on the zinc ingot market. .
Data statistics
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Monday, China’s zinc production in August fell to a low since October 2012. Due to weak profits and environmental protection measures, zinc production in August decreased by 7.9% from the same period of the previous year to 431,000 tons. . The cumulative output in the first eight months was 3.7 million tons, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year. The supply of zinc in August decreased, which had a positive impact on the rise in zinc prices.
Global zinc market demand
A report released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on Tuesday showed that the global zinc supply gap widened to 32,500 tons in July. From January to July 2018, the global zinc market was short of 42,000 tons, compared with a shortage of 253,000 tons in the same period last year.
According to a report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on Wednesday, the global zinc market supply shortage was 351,000 tons from January to July 2018, and the supply shortage was 448,000 tons in 2017. From January to July, the inventory increased by 26,000 tons, and the Shanghai stock increased by 21,000 tons.
The data of the International Lead and Zinc Research Group and the World Bureau of Metal Statistics show that there is still a small shortage in the international zinc market in 2018, but the shortfall is significantly lower than the previous year’s gap, and the supply shortage has been alleviated, and the zinc supply and demand relationship has been greatly improved.
Macroeconomics
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Recently, the approval of projects such as UHV and rail transit in many places has been reopened, and a large number of infrastructure projects have started construction intensively, and supporting policies have also entered the stage of intensive introduction. The increase in the construction of infrastructure projects will definitely drive the sharp increase in demand for zinc ingots. The demand for zinc in the market will increase, and the domestic zinc market is promising.
International policy
The Trump administration said on Monday that it would impose tariffs on about 200 billion US dollars of Chinese goods, and the tariffs will come into effect on September 24. As one of the measures to pressure China to change its business practices, the Sino-US trade war has escalated. The deterioration of the macroeconomic environment has created a negative impact on the non-ferrous metals market, and the zinc market has a downside risk.
Third, the outlook outlook
Bai Jiaxin, a business analyst, believes that the United States imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, and the Sino-US trade war has escalated, which has adversely affected the international macroeconomic environment and affected the rise of the zinc market. However, China has recently approved a number of infrastructure projects, infrastructure. The large-scale start-up of the project has alleviated the deterioration of the international economy, driving demand for non-ferrous metals to rise, and the zinc market is bullish. It can be seen from the international statistics that the supply gap in the zinc market has been alleviated in 2018, supply and demand have been basically stable, and the zinc price has increased in general. The zinc price in the market is affected by demand. It is expected that the zinc price in the market will rise slightly.
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