Macro: The US non-agricultural employment population increased by 157,000 in July, refreshing the new low since March 2018, but the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, and the salary increase remained unchanged. The US dollar index fluctuated strongly and the commodity sector showed differentiation. March copper futures on the London Metal Exchange closed up 0.61% to $6176.5/ton; March aluminum futures closed down 0.49% at $2027.5/ton. On the domestic front, the central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward sales from 0 to 20%, and the RMB strengthened against the US dollar. In addition, ICBC issued documents to branches in the near future, explicitly requiring more infrastructure, shantytown and other projects. Reserves, the demand side should not be excessively pessimistic. Shanghai copper 1809 closed up 0.63% to 49,520 yuan / ton; Shanghai aluminum 1809 closed up 0.10%, reported 14405 yuan / ton.
The fundamentals are divided into varieties: short-term upstream copper strikes have formed a favorable support for copper prices, superimposed on the domestic spot end, a slight increase in the fundamentals. The technical surface, the short-term copper price is supported in the vicinity of 49,000, and the probability of shock recovery is expected to increase. Big.
News: The Shandong government issued a company with exceptionally good environmental behavior to avoid the implementation of peak production. The impact of environmental protection and limited production on electrolytic aluminum production capacity is smaller than expected. In addition, the traditional off-season has a certain drag on aluminum prices, and the bullish factors mainly come from the market. For the second half of the year, the demand side will be strong, and the aluminum price should not be bearish. It is expected that the probability of shock is stronger.
| PVA |