1、 Market Review: Weak and bearish, with light trading volume
According to the data, the potassium nitrate market overall showed a weak and bearish trend with light trading this week.
Price trend: On November 6th, the benchmark price of potassium nitrate was 4425.00 yuan/ton. From the beginning of this week to mid week (November 6-9), the market price remained flat at 4425.00 yuan/ton. Entering the second half of this week, due to the overall correction of the potassium fertilizer sector, market prices have generally decreased. On November 10th, prices fell by 0.28%, and by November 11th, the benchmark price had fallen to 4412.50 yuan/ton.
Monthly performance: Compared with the beginning of this month, the current price has decreased by 0.28%. Although the decline is not significant, the overall trend is clearly weak.
Market mentality: Currently, the downstream has limited acceptance of high priced goods, and the purchasing mentality is extremely cautious. Market operations mainly focus on replenishing inventory for essential needs, with weak trading volume.
2、 Technical analysis: Short position arrangement, clear downward signal for sustained decline
Combining price trend charts with spot market analysis tools, the current potassium nitrate market is showing a very weak downward trend in terms of technical aspects:
1. Price falls below and moves away from the support of the moving average: From the latest price trend chart, it can be clearly seen that the yellow line representing the price of the day fell below the 5-day moving average and 10 day moving average at the beginning of the week and continued to move downwards.
2. The moving average system is arranged in a bearish pattern: In the current chart, the 5-day line, 10 day line, and 20 day line are arranged from top to bottom, and their directions all diverge downward. This standard bearish pattern is a strong signal of a downward market trend.
The 10 day moving average has been consistently below the 20 day moving average this week, and the distance between the two is gradually increasing. This indicates that the moving average continues to be negative, and the market is in a clear downward or deep adjustment channel, with bearish forces dominating in the short term.
3、 Comprehensive evaluation and future prospects
From both fundamental and technical perspectives, the potassium nitrate market is unlikely to see any improvement in the short term.
Location assessment: According to the recent price position table, the price on November 11th is already in the “low” range of the entire cycle of 10 days, 20 days, 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, and even one year. This indicates that the market is not only weak in the short term, but also in a downward or bottom oscillation phase in the medium to long term, with an extremely low overall center of gravity.
Supply and demand and mentality: Currently, the potassium fertilizer sector as a whole has entered a correction cycle. Traders have pessimistic expectations for the future market and are relatively conservative in their operations, afraid to stock up in large quantities.
Market outlook: Against the backdrop of strong downward signals from the technical side and weak downstream demand dominated by rigid demand, it is expected that the potassium nitrate market will continue to maintain a weak consolidation or slight downward trend in the short term. The market lacks obvious positive stimuli, and it is recommended to closely monitor the overall trend of the potassium fertilizer sector and the start-up of downstream demand for compound fertilizers and other end products.
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