The first half of this year, the domestic iron ore imports and prices Qi Fei, and domestic mines will continue to pressure?
First, six months of iron ore imports and exports go up
| PVA |
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 94.7 million tons of iron ore in June, up 3.36% from 91.5 million tons in May. China’s iron ore imports have increased substantially for two consecutive months. Stone imports grew 16.01% year on year.
Over the past year, a total of six months of imports of more than 90 million tons, 2017 exclusive four times (June, May, March, January), 2016 2 times (November, September), of which 2017 In March, China imported iron ore reached a peak of 95.56 million tons.
In the first half of this year, China’s total imports of iron ore 539 million tons, up 9.3% over the same period last year. If imports in the second half of this year, then this year’s imports will easily break through 1 billion tons, will also be the second consecutive year more than 1 billion tons, and may even refresh the previous year’s history (1.024 billion tons).
Imports of iron ore in the same time, iron ore import prices are also rising.
According to the General Administration of Customs data, this year, although iron ore prices fell by 19%, but compared with last year, China’s iron ore import prices in June increased by 23.6%, the first six months, iron ore imports are Price rose 55%.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
Second, the domestic mines continue to pressure
June 30, domestic iron ore 62% grade dry iron ore concentrate tax price of 486.06 yuan / ton, the chain rose 0.25 yuan per ton, but still higher than the import of iron ore 40.89 yuan / ton; the average price of the month 483.95 yuan / ton, higher than the import iron ore 70.88 yuan / ton.
China’s foreign mining favors the world’s three major miners feel happy. Despite the overall decline in iron ore prices this year, both the BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale, their production line from mid-June began to accelerate.
From the domestic mine monthly investment situation, metallurgical and mining investment in fixed assets has been a sharp decline for 37 months, from January to May, fixed asset investment fell 24.5%, all industrial categories in the largest decline in investment in the industry, – in February just to stabilize the signs of investment confidence, the basic fight back to the prototype, reflecting a serious shortage of market confidence. Of which private investment will be 36.7% year on year, private investment accounted for 63.9% of total investment, accounting for the same period last year dropped 12.3 percentage points.
At present, due to the cost of domestic mines to consider, the resumption of mining investment and risk are relatively large, is expected to late the domestic production will be basically stagnant, the output down to 8-9 million tons interval, the second half of the mineral change range Small, will continue to pressure.
Third, the iron ore market in the second half of the three major trends
1, steel procurement slow pace of procurement
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
In the market downturn in 2013-2015 period, due to cost control considerations, steel refineries continued to decline in the scale, but with the 2016 market rebound, steel plowing efforts increased, superimposed market speculation, the number of days spent on imported ore A substantial increase to 35 days of high, which also led directly to the Spring Festival after the steel stock to continue to suppress the pressure on the stock price, the Hong Kong deposit pressure continued to accumulate.
In view of the current low prices, high inventory, the second half of the steel industry will be stabilized.
From January to May, China’s crude steel production increased by 4.4%, net exports fell 29.1% year on year, crude steel apparent consumption grew 9.1%, iron ore consumption grew 5.1%.
As iron and steel production to maintain a high level, the overall demand for iron ore remained stable, steady decline.
2, high-grade ore and lump ore demand is better
With the supply side of the reform to promote the first half of the steel industry profits remained at a high level, high profit state lasted for nearly three years, the market demand for ore increasingly high concentration of ore.
From the mainstream of PB powder, lump ore price difference and profit contrast can be found on the spread and the positive correlation between steel profits increased significantly after 2015, due to backward low-end production capacity out, and shut down the increase in the number of blast Production efficiency and molten iron production have become the main way to profit of steel mills, and the demand for grade and quality is better, and the relative price of lump ore is obviously improved.
3, the amount of scrap to enhance
After a comprehensive inventory of the steel, the steel supply gap is mainly supplemented by the new electric arc furnace production. Electric arc furnace is the main raw material for the production of scrap, so the electric arc furnace production will re-stimulate the demand for scrap, and to the process of production capacity of the blast furnace shut down the corresponding reduction in the amount of ore in the second half of the two steelmaking raw materials between the show Long relationship.
From the historical data, scrap and ore prices are highly correlated, but the volatility of scrap prices is lower than the ore, and relatively lagging behind, with the bar steel ban, scrap prices in the first half was also weak.
But from June scrap prices began to buck the trend, the cumulative increase of 14%, which can determine the electric furnace production capacity has begun to reflect, with the progress of production is expected, the latter part of the scrap will be further scarce, compared to the production capacity reduction Of the amount of ore is difficult to consume in the alternative capacity, the overall domestic demand for ore will drop slightly.
Fourth, the conclusion
Comprehensive consideration, the second half of the supply of ore will gradually increase, and the basic high-grade ore, the basic needs of maintaining a weak trend of stability, steel mills on the lack of subsidies, still maintain on-demand procurement strategy. So the supply increased, the demand decreased slightly, the supply and demand balance will continue to expand.
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