According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall PTA market in China maintained a weak trend this week (July 14-18). As of July 19, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% from the beginning of the week. In the second half of the week, the price slightly increased due to the boost of crude oil.
The domestic PTA supply remains stable, with no new changes in equipment, and the overall operating rate of the industry is around 80%. Among them, the 2 million ton plant of Yisheng Hainan reduced its load on July 1st due to some reasons, and increased its load on July 6th. In June, the 4.5 million ton plant of Fuhai Chuang and the 2.5 million ton plant of Dongying Weilian were still shut down.
The international crude oil market is currently characterized by loose supply and poor demand, coupled with the overall easing of the geopolitical situation compared to the previous period, which has limited support for oil prices and mainly led to fluctuating adjustments. As of July 17th, the settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $67.54 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.52 per barrel.
The terminal has entered a seasonal off-season, with insufficient demand support and hindered procurement enthusiasm. Downstream polyester factories have once again released statements of production reduction, which is bearish for the market mentality. Currently, the industry’s operating rate is at 86%, and under the pressure of losses, plans are being made to implement a 10% production reduction. The demand in the weaving industry has been affected, with high inventory, shortage of orders, and losses leading to a continued decline in load to below 56%.
Business analysts believe that the traditional off-season terminal negative feedback continues, and the buying and selling atmosphere in the PTA spot market is flat. The expectation of PTA capacity expansion combined with downstream polyester production reduction is expected, and the PTA market price fatigue range is expected to consolidate.
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