1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic PVC spot market continued its downward trend from the previous month in April. As of April 30th, the average price of PVC in China was 4679 yuan/ton, with a monthly price drop of 4.70%.
2、 Market analysis
This month, the PVC spot market continued its downward trend from March, with a deepening decline and almost no rebound throughout the month. The trend was slightly flat in the latter half of the month, with the decline mainly slowing down.
Specifically, on the one hand, due to the low levels of upstream crude oil and weak ethylene prices, coupled with the suppression of the futures market, the spot PVC market is generally experiencing a bearish trend. On the other hand, there is a certain pressure on supply and demand, and the spot market has not yet escaped the downward channel. There is basically no rebound trend after a decline in the market during the month, and the operating rate continues to be high. Production continues to increase, and there is a slight surplus of supply. At present, there is no signal of bottoming out and stabilizing in the market. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of April 30th, the mainstream price range of PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4650-4800 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since April, the price of calcium carbide has risen, mainly concentrated at the beginning of the month, and the market has stabilized in the middle and late of the month, with price range adjustments. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price increase of calcium carbide since March has been 5.1%. Overall, calcium carbide lacks positive guidance and has limited support. With the weak performance of downstream PVC market, the price of calcium carbide may not stabilize and improve in the near future.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts from Shengyi Society believe that PVC supply and demand will remain weak in the short term, mainly due to the sustained high operating rates of manufacturers, as well as high inventory levels in both enterprises and the market. On the cost side, it is difficult for the upstream price of calcium carbide to increase, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in May 2025, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.
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