Cobalt prices stopped falling and rebounded in March
According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt price on March 13th was 218800 yuan/ton, which decreased and then increased compared to the cobalt price of 218600 yuan/ton on March 1st, with an increase of 0.09%; The cobalt price has increased by 0.55% compared to 217600 yuan/ton on March 6th. During the Spring Festival, during the off-season of the automotive market, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China decreased year-on-year; After the end of the holiday, construction resumed, domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles increased, global production and sales of new energy vehicles increased, demand rebounded, and cobalt prices fell first and then rose in March.
Domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased
According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in February, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 464000 and 477000 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 16% and 9.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to February, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.252 million and 1.207 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 29.4%, and a market share of 30%.
The China Passenger Car Association released an analysis of the national passenger car market for February 2024. In terms of wholesale sales, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 447000 units in February, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% and a month on month decrease of 35.0%. In terms of retail sales, the new energy vehicle market sold 388000 units in February, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6% and a month on month decrease of 42.1%.
In February, the sales of new energy vehicles decreased year-on-year, and the demand for cobalt in the market decreased. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased year-on-year, and the demand for cobalt in the market increased. The Ministry of Commerce has shown significant results in promoting the “100 City Linkage” Automobile Festival and the “Thousand Counties and Ten Thousand Towns” New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season, with continuous efforts in promoting consumption policies in multiple regions, stimulating more demand for car purchases. The sales of new energy vehicles are expected to increase, and the demand for cobalt in the future is expected to rebound.
Rising sales of power batteries
According to data released by South Korean research firm SNE Research, in January 2024, the global registered installed capacity of electric vehicle batteries was approximately 51.5 GWh, an increase of 60.6% compared to the same period last year.
According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in February, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 43.6GWh, a decrease of 33.1% month on month and 3.6% year-on-year. From January to February, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 108.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%. In terms of sales, in February, the total sales of power and other batteries in China were 37.4 GWh, a decrease of 34.6% month on month and 10.1% year-on-year. Among them, the sales of power batteries were 33.5 GWh, accounting for 89.8%, a decrease of 33.4% month on month and 7.6% year-on-year. From January to February, the cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China reached 94.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%; Among them, the cumulative sales of power batteries were 83.9GWh, accounting for 88.8%, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 31.3%. In terms of vehicle installation volume, in February, China’s power battery installation volume was 18.0 GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1% and a month on month decrease of 44.4%. Among them, the installation volume of ternary batteries was 6.9 GWh, accounting for 38.7% of the total installation volume, a year-on-year increase of 3.3% and a month on month decrease of 44.9%. From January to February, the cumulative installed volume of power batteries in China was 50.3GWh, a year-on-year increase of 32.0%; The cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries is 19.5Wh, accounting for 38.9% of the total installed capacity, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 60.8%.
In February, the production, sales, and installed capacity of power batteries in China decreased significantly compared to the previous month, while the installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased significantly compared to the previous month, with a slight year-on-year increase; The production, sales, and installed capacity of power batteries increased significantly year-on-year from January to February. The global electric vehicle battery installation volume increased significantly year-on-year from January to February, leading to an increase in demand in the cobalt market.
According to a report released by market research company Rho Motion, global sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles increased by 3% year-on-year in February 2024, reaching 800000 units. In February, sales in the European market increased by 12% year-on-year, while sales in the US and Canada markets increased by 31%. However, sales in the Chinese market decreased by 12%. Global electric vehicle sales have increased year-on-year, which is favorable for the demand in the cobalt market.
Overview and Outlook
According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at Business Society, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased year-on-year, while the production, sales, and installed capacity of power batteries have also increased year-on-year. The installed capacity of ternary batteries has also increased year-on-year, and the global production and sales of electric vehicles have also increased year-on-year, leading to an increase in demand in the global cobalt market. Overall, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased year-on-year, with an increase in demand for cobalt and a recovery in demand. In March, cobalt prices first fell and then rose. In the future, demand is expected to recover, and cobalt prices are expected to slowly rise.
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