Poor demand, falling cost, continued weakness of polyester staple fiber

Spot price: spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber continued to fall this week (11.21-11.25). According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7462 yuan/ton on November 25, down 1.19% from Monday and up 2.90% from the same period last year.



Futures market: the main force of short fiber futures ended lower in shock this week. On Friday, the staple fiber PF futures contract closed at 6634, down 4.90% from the closing price last week. The settlement price is 6620 yuan. This week, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell 4.64% and closed at 5138, while the main ethylene glycol futures rose 1.32% and closed at 3928.


Concern about the weak prospect of crude oil demand in the future and the continuous interest rate increase in the United States, it is rumored that OPEC+may discuss increasing crude oil production. EIA data shows that the growth of U.S. distillate oil and gasoline inventories last week exceeded expectations, and oil prices were depressed this week. The main force of US oil futures fell 2.29% to close near US $78.4 per barrel (as of 15:15 on the 25th Beijing time). The fall in crude oil price has weakened the support for PTA cost. PTA’s new production capacity is about to be tested, and the accumulated storage is expected to rise. The high inventory of the downstream polyester factories will not be changed, and the large factories may jointly reduce production. The demand is poor, and the PTA price will maintain a downward pattern this week. The falling crude oil price has weakened the support for ethylene glycol cost, and the downstream demand has remained sluggish. However, due to the impact of poor efficiency, the unplanned maintenance of ethylene glycol has increased recently, and the operating rate remains low. In the case of a large decline in the previous period, the price of ethylene glycol was also at a relatively low level. Ethylene glycol futures prices rebounded slightly this week. The stocks of staple fiber manufacturers continued to increase this week, and some large factories reduced production. The orders of downstream yarn mills and weaving mills are not good, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is declining, the demand for raw materials continues to be weak, Duowei holds the rigid demand for procurement, the production and sales of staple fibers continue to be sluggish, and the price continues to fall. This week, the prices of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn remained weak, and the sales were light. The buyers just needed to talk about goods delivery, and the overall inventory was slow.


In the future, the center of the cost of staple fiber raw materials has moved down, the characteristics of the downstream off-season are obvious, and the demand continues to be weak. It is expected that after December, the phenomenon of textile enterprises giving annual leave in advance will further increase, and staple fiber may continue to accumulate. Short term or weak fluctuation trend of staple fiber price. Pay attention to raw material price trend, plant dynamics and downstream orders.