1、 Trend analysis
According to the nickel price monitoring of business agency, on the 18th, the average price of nickel spot market was 181966.67 yuan / ton, down 2.77% from the previous trading day and up 22.84% year-on-year.
Under the pressure of the strength of the US dollar, the trend of LUNI nickel fell back and closed down 2.56% the following week. With the resurgence of the domestic epidemic, the market liquidity has weakened, the nickel supply has turned to a surplus pattern, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is poor. Friday’s data showed that the credit data of China, the world’s No. 1 metal consumer, in July was significantly revised back, and the decline of new bank loans exceeded expectations, and metal prices were under pressure. In addition, the strong exchange rate of the US dollar also exerts pressure on metal prices. It was rumored that the nickel will be collected and stored, but it is expected that the nickel collection and storage will be small and the impact will be small.
In terms of fundamentals, the current nickel industry chain is weak as a whole, and the supply side has poor profits due to excess supply. In August, the domestic ferronickel output is expected to continue to decline, the domestic pure nickel spot premium is slightly expanded, and the import profit is narrowed. On the demand side, it is preliminarily predicted that the output of 200 and 400 series stainless steel will continue to decline in August, and the output of 300 series stainless steel will rise slightly on a month on month basis, but it is still lower than that of the same period on a year-on-year basis. Moreover, the power restriction in East China in August may continue to affect the production of stainless steel.
Forecast: the nickel price is greatly affected by macro factors, and the fundamentals are weak as a whole. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to fluctuate in a wide range in the short term.
| PVA |