Cost side support still exists, and aniline price is stable with small movement (June 20-24, 2022)

1、 Price trend



According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, aniline was stable and small this week. On June 17, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12500 yuan / ton; On June 24, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12300-12500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.21% over last week and an increase of 16.4% over the same period last year.


2、 Analysis and comment


On the cost side, pure benzene: crude oil weakened, pure benzene in the external market continued to decline, and the support of external news was weak. Domestic pure benzene port inventory continues to increase and supply increases. However, the downstream products suffered a loss in profits, and some units shut down with reduced economy, weakening demand. This week, pure benzene continued to decline, the price difference between SINOPEC pure benzene and local refining enterprises widened, and the prices of Sinopec plants in Shandong and Hebei fell significantly affected by the northern market. On Friday (June 24), the price of pure benzene was 9200-9800 yuan / ton (the average price was 9559 yuan / ton), which was 3.29% lower than that of last week and 20.84% higher than that of the same period last year.


Nitric acid: the price of domestic nitric acid rose this week. On June 17, the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2883.33 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 2933.33 yuan / ton, up 1.73% from last week and 26.62% from the same period last year.


The price of pure benzene fell, but the cost side support remained, and aniline rose along with the cost side. The delivery of aniline from the factory is acceptable and the price is firm.


3、 Aftermarket expectation


In terms of cost and pure benzene, there is still a possibility of decline in the external market. The domestic supply of pure benzene increases, the downstream demand weakens, and the pure benzene market sentiment is empty, so there is still a possibility of decline.


In terms of nitric acid, the delivery of nitric acid is acceptable, and the enterprise has no inventory pressure. It is expected that the price of nitric acid will tend to be strong.


The downstream is about to enter the off-season, the demand has weakened, and aniline inventory has accumulated. However, the short-term cost support still exists, and the trend of aniline is expected to be stable temporarily. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline prices.