441# silicon price trend
Price analysis of this month
Recently, the price of metal silicon has made rapid progress. On August 27, the average price of metal silicon in the domestic market still rose. As of the 27th, the national metal silicon quotation was 23700 yuan / ton, an increase of about 4100 yuan / ton or 21.38% over last Friday; It rose 20.23% month on month. According to the data analysis of business society, metal silicon has been in the rising channel in recent three months. Especially since August, metal silicon has jumped to a new high, with an increase of 8.38% in the first week, the most active increase at the end of the month and an increase of 15.89% in the last week.
In terms of index, the metal silicon commodity index on August 26 was 159.11, up 1.98 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 131.37% from the lowest point of 68.77 on September 25, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
Market analysis of this month
On the whole, silicon metal kept breaking new records in August. At the beginning of the month, the silicon plant was optimistic about the future market and had a strong willingness to support the price. The superposition of market sentiment stimulation promoted the continuous rise of silicon price; In the middle of the month, the supply of raw materials is tight, the South hydropower has not been effectively alleviated, and the merchants are reluctant to sell; At the end of the month, the silicon price soared and sat firmly at the 20000 mark, with an average daily rise of more than 1000 yuan.
Raw material side: thermal coal increased by nearly 30% compared with the previous month. This month, Sichuan, Yunnan and other places continued to suffer from limited production. Most silicon plants are facing the situation of insufficient power supply and difficult operation. There are also early warning conditions for the supply of each unit in Yili and Shihezi regions of Xinjiang; In addition, the process of safety rectification and resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is slow, the output has also decreased, and the operating rate is not high in some areas due to environmental protection inspection.
Demand side: according to the customs data, the metal silicon export in July 2021 totaled 62900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 42.7%, and the metal silicon export from January to July 2021 totaled 465700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 44.9%. The market price of organosilicon DMC has been raised for many times. On the 27th, the average price in the domestic market was 35166.67 yuan / ton. The high price “competitive sales” mode of organosilicon DMC also boosted the confidence of spot traders. Downstream customers are worried that the supply of metal silicon in the later stage is in short supply. Under the condition of existing profits, the downstream demand is strong and the tolerance of high silicon price is high.
Inventory side: the social inventory of metal silicon increased slightly, but the accumulated inventory was less than expected. According to the statistics of business society, the social inventory of Huangpu port, Kunming and Tianjin Port was 48000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons compared with last week, with a slow growth rate.
Future forecast
At present, the rising price of power coal has the most far-reaching impact on the production cost and supply capacity of metal silicon. The supply and demand of metal silicon is in a tight balance. However, the demand side reform in power supply leads to power restriction in the main producing areas, and the bad raw material cost may continue to affect the supply of metal silicon. In conclusion, the high price adjustment of metal silicon in the short term is the main.
| PVA |