Favorable conditions in July boosted the sharp rise in LNG prices

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG on July 27 was 4870 yuan / ton, up 1120 yuan / ton compared with 3750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 29.87% in the month, up 97.7% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In July, the domestic LNG off-season market continued to rise, with an increase of about 30% in the month, almost doubling from the same period last year, and it was in the traditional off-season performance of consumption. The liquid price of this month increased mainly by the cost increase, the decrease of market supply, and the increase of high temperature weather demand. Meanwhile, the rising tone continued to boost, and the multiple positive superposition supported the domestic LNG price to rise sharply. The liquid price of various regions increased by more than 1000 yuan in the month, and the center of gravity moved up sharply. Now the liquid price in various parts of China has risen to more than 4500 yuan / ton. Shandong, Henan, Xinjiang and other places have exceeded 5000 passes and the sword finger is 6000. Recently, there are heavy rain in many places, which affect logistics in some regions. The market supply continues to decrease, the inventory of manufacturers is not under pressure, and the rising psychology of price rise is still the same. As for the current situation, the domestic LNG market is easy to rise and fall. At present, the price of domestic liquid and imported gas has been increased to some extent, including 4680-4900 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 4750-5050 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 4850-4950 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 4780-4880 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5000-5210 yuan / ton in Henan, 4950-5200 yuan / ton in Hebei Province, 4600-5000 yuan / ton in Sichuan Province, and about 4500-5700 yuan / ton of air intake.

region Specifications July 27th July 1st Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 4680-4900 3450-3800 + 1230/+1100

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 4750-5050 3670-3800 + 1080/+1250

Shanxi liquified natural gas 4850-4950 3600-3800 + 1250/+1150

Ningxia liquified natural gas 4780-4880 3680-3850 + 1100/+1030

Henan liquified natural gas 5000-5210 3670-3850 + 1330/+1360

Hebei liquified natural gas 4950-5200 3750-3950 + 1200/+1250

Sichuan liquified natural gas 4600-5000 3500-3900 + 1100/+1100

The price of LNG increased, which led to the increase and decrease of downstream products:

Methanol, July 26, methanol reference price is 2585.00, compared with July 1 (2555.00), it is up 1.17%, and the factory quotation of enterprises in the Middle East of Shandong Province is stable around 2550-2600 yuan / ton; Dongying, Zibo and other surrounding industries in early Zhou state of mind partial to watch, pay attention to the price dynamics in Northwest China. The factory quotation of enterprises in southern Shandong Province was stable to 2600 yuan / ton, and the regional commencement fluctuated in a narrow range. The local delivery of Linyi was 2570 yuan / ton, and the demand of downstream was not good.

Liquid ammonia, recently, the domestic liquid ammonia market continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business agency, liquid ammonia has been in high consolidation from June to early July after a big rise in May. Since mid July, the liquid ammonia market started again, and continued to rise, with a strong increase. According to the monitoring of the business society, liquid ammonia rose 6.72% in the last two weeks (July 12-22). At present, the market price range in Shandong is 4500-4800 yuan / ton, and some quotations have broken through the 4800 mark, reaching the highest level in history. The soaring price of liquid ammonia is the result of the double effects of high cost and tight supply and demand.

Urea, on July 26, the reference price of urea was 2810.00, up 0.36% compared with July 1 (2800.00). The price of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas has increased slightly in recent years, and the cost support is strengthened. From the aspect of demand, there are a few fertilizer dressing phenomena in North China and East China, and the agricultural demand is general; Downstream compound fertilizer, rubber plate factory, melamine enterprises can start, mostly follow up with the use of low and appropriate amount. From the aspect of supply: the unit maintenance of urea enterprises is still in the near future, the start-up recovery is slow, the daily production is still less than 160000 tons, the supply end is tight, and the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also kept in a lower position. International: on the evening of July 13, India issued a new round of import bidding, which has boosted the mentality of domestic market. Overall, the support of urea cost is strengthened, downstream demand is weakened and urea supply is tight.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of liquefied natural gas of business society believe that: at present, there are shutdown and maintenance of liquid plants such as Hongxing, Dazhou Huixin and other liquid plants in Ningxia, and the rain in some areas, the market supply has been tightened, the inventory of manufacturers is not under pressure, the sales pressure is not large, the rising psychology of price rising is still high. It is expected that the domestic liquid gas market will not decrease in the short term, and the price may continue to rise.