1、 Price trend
According to the data of the block list of business associations, toluene fluctuated in a narrow range this week, and the price was weak to maintain stability. On April 4, the price of toluene was 5461 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (April 11), the price was 5452 yuan / ton, down 9 yuan / ton or 0.16% from last week.
2、 Analysis and comment
This week, Sinopec’s Toluene price adjustment range is – 100 / 0 (yuan / ton). Toluene stocks at ports in East China fell this week. At present, the downstream demand is stable. The trend of toluene mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil. Crude oil continues to fluctuate, and the guidance is weak. Toluene lacks clear upward momentum and runs weakly and stably in the week. In terms of external market, as of April 9, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $680 / T, up US $2 / T or 0.29% from April 2, and the price of imported toluene from East China was US $703 / T, flat from April 2.
Crude oil, this week’s crude oil long short game, price shocks. Good news: US commercial crude oil inventory fell, China and US economic data were strong; bad news: OPEC + decided to gradually increase crude oil production, and the epidemic situation in Europe and other places was severe. On April 1, Brent rose 0.08 USD / barrel, or 0.13%; WTI fell 2.13 USD / barrel, or 3.46%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China continued to decline this week, with domestic goods at 16250 yuan / ton, down 2.9% from last week and up 68.62% from the same period last year. The domestic market has been reorganized and operated, the factory’s supply is tight, the downstream inquiry is increasing, the terminal’s overall willingness to receive goods is weak, and the demand for goods is mainly rigid.
In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week was stable compared with last week, with the price at 6400 yuan / ton, up 48.84% year on year. The operation of domestic p-xylene units is stable as a whole, Sinopec and private enterprises are in normal operation, the on-site operation rate is more than 90%, the on-site supply is normal, and the goods are in good condition. As of April 9, closing prices in Asia were 786-788 USD / T FOB Korea and 804-806 USD / T CFR China.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.
In April, some refineries entered the spring inspection, the market supply of unit maintenance decreased, and the industry expected the toluene supply to be tight in April. However, the follow-up of downstream demand is still weak, and the wait-and-see sentiment of cargo holders is strong. It is expected that toluene will still follow the fluctuation of crude oil in the short term. Focus on the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene unit spring maintenance dynamic, toluene late arrival and downstream demand change on toluene price.
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