Zinc price trend
According to the data monitoring of business agency, the trend of zinc price in September showed an “n” shape adjustment, and the overall zinc market price fluctuated lower. As of September 30, the average price of zinc was 19723.33 yuan / ton, which was 4.21% lower than 20590.00 yuan / ton on September 1.
China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index
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According to the data of China’s National Bureau of statistics, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s index (PMI) was 51.5% in September, up 0.5% from the previous month. The manufacturing boom picked up, and the supply and demand sides rebounded simultaneously. The new export order index and import index in September were 50.8% and 50.4%, respectively higher than 1.7% and 1.4% of the previous month, and rose above the prosperity and drought line for the first time since this year. The import and export index rose above the critical point, the international market demand partially recovered, the import and export of manufacturing industry further improved, the domestic supply and demand rose synchronously, the domestic economic environment recovered, and the domestic zinc market supply and demand rose simultaneously, which was good for the zinc market.
Domestic zinc ingot production
Date output of the month (10000 tons) cumulative output (10000 tons) year on year increase (%) cumulative growth (%)
August 2020 53.9 410.9 5.1 4.3
July 2020: 52.4-356.9 – 0.2-4.6
June 2020 52.304.8 1.2 7.7
May 2020: 51.4 252.7 4.5 9.1
April 2020 51.7 201.3 7.3 10.7
March 2020 48.9 149.5 4.7 11
February 2020 — 104 — 12.9
December 2019 60.7 623.6 19.5 9.2
November 2019 59.4 569.2 13.1 9
October 2019 54.8 512.3 8.3 9.4
September 2019 54.8-458.3-18.9-9.5
August 2019 52.8 403.4 18.9 8.2
It can be seen from the statistical table of domestic zinc output that domestic zinc output rose sharply in August on a month on month basis, and the zinc concentrate processing fee remained high in September. The domestic zinc concentrate processing enterprises had sufficient production power, and the domestic zinc ingot supply was sufficient. The downward pressure of zinc Market was great.
Zinc import data
According to the latest customs data released by the General Administration of customs, in August 2020, the import of refined zinc was 46600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.08%, and a month on month increase of 5.89%. The total export of refined zinc was 1600 tons, that is, the net import of refined zinc in August 2020 was 45000 tons. From January to August 2020, the total import volume was 313400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29.13%. In August 2020, 410700 physical tons of zinc concentrate were imported, 138000 physical tons were increased by 50.7% compared with July, and 161000 physical tons were increased by 64.7% compared with August 2019. From January to August 2020, the total import volume was 2.713 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 749000 tons or 38.1%. The import volume increased significantly, the domestic zinc market supply increased, the zinc market oversupply increased, and the downward pressure of zinc market increased.
Analysis, review and Prospect
According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, September is the peak season for traditional production, known as “gold, nine silver and ten”. In September this year, the domestic economy continued to warm up, the demand for zinc market rose slowly, and the demand for winter storage of smelter production was expected to rise in the near future. On the supply side, domestic zinc production rose, zinc concentrate imports increased significantly, refined zinc imports rebounded, and zinc market supply increased significantly. The overall supply and demand of zinc market have both recovered, and the rising power of zinc price is insufficient. At the time of the U.S. election, the risk aversion psychology of the market increased, the decline of stock market and futures market dragged down the spot market, the foreign epidemic continued to rise without obvious improvement, which affected the resumption of production and work, and the decline of global economic recovery expectation affected the zinc market. Generally speaking, both supply and demand of domestic zinc market are picking up, while the negative pressure of international zinc market is greater. The rising power of zinc market is insufficient and the downward pressure is greater. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate and fall in the future.
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