1、 Price trend
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic xylene market has been stable this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3510 yuan / ton, down 0.57% month on month.
2、 Analysis and comment
Xylene price trend this week is generally stable. Port inventory continued to fall, but it was still high. As of the end of last week, the port inventory in East China was about 134000 tons, down about 9000 tons compared with last week, so the pressure to go to the warehouse still exists. There are over supply, low operating rate of downstream PX producers, weak gasoline blending demand, tepid demand for isomerized xylene, and inactive market transactions. The upstream raw material naphtha continued to rise, the downstream product paraxylene fell, and the marginal profit margin of MX industry remained low. According to CFR calculation, the price difference of px-mx narrowed to about $93 / T. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3600 yuan / ton. The market continued to pay attention to the impact of the geopolitical situation on the supply of crude oil due to the new coronavirus epidemic, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on the supply of crude oil, the continued spread of the overseas epidemic delayed the impact of economic restart on the demand for crude oil, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.
Upstream, crude oil: at the beginning of this week, affected by the hurricane, a large number of refining facilities in the Gulf of Mexico coastal area were closed, and oil prices rose strongly. In the middle of the week, the impact of Hurricane transit was less than expected, and US crude oil and Brent crude oil rose sharply and fell back. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $1.305/barrel to close at $44.875/barrel, up 3% from last week. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. The future market will pay close attention to the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil between $42-46 / barrel. The future crude oil demand outlook and oil price trend mainly depend on the global epidemic trend and the orderly recovery of various countries’ economies. Meanwhile, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the linkage with the US dollar index and the stock market, and how oil producing countries and oil companies adjust their production are also important factors affecting oil prices.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
Downstream, in PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4600 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price was about 517 US dollars / ton, FOB Korea and 535 US dollars / ton CFR China, down about 14 US dollars / ton compared with last week. It is expected that the short-term PX market will be a small correction. In terms of PTA market, this week’s market price fell back. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3574 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 447 US dollars / ton CFR China. PTA price is expected to maintain a stable trend next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation was stable, with the price of 4400 yuan / ton. The external price of o-benzene was about 530 US dollars / ton, FOB Korea and 545 US dollars / ton CFR China, up about 20 US dollars / ton and 10 US dollars / ton respectively compared with last week. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will rise slightly next week.
3、 Future forecast
Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the continuous spread of the global second epidemic on the economic restart of crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation of the Middle East and China and the United States, and the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil due to the economic restart, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan. Overall, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.
| PVA |