Since the beginning of August, the price of polycrystalline silicon has continued to rise due to tight supply. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of August 7, the price of polysilicon has increased by 13.67%. At present, the domestic market quotation of polysilicon solar grade primary material has reached 55000 yuan / ton, and the imported material has reached 58000-62000 yuan / ton.
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Since August, many domestic polysilicon units are still in the maintenance period. Since July, the market supply pressure has been effectively alleviated. At present, with the impact of poor transportation and more maintenance devices, the market supply is more tense. According to statistics, as of August 6, there are 4 polysilicon manufacturers still in the maintenance period, and the manufacturers mainly carry out line by line maintenance or equipment maintenance, especially centralized maintenance and repair in Xinjiang. Domestic supply is down 15-20% from the normal level. It is worth noting that due to the local supply imbalance caused by the epidemic situation in Xinjiang, the strict road control in Xinjiang, the transportation cost of polysilicon has risen sharply, and the labor cost has increased sharply, which largely supports the high price of polysilicon. In addition, in terms of import sources, the price of imported silicon materials also continued to rise, further impacting the domestic market. Due to the lack of overseas supply and the depreciation of the US dollar, the price of imported materials has increased significantly, which has increased by more than 5000 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month. On the whole, tight supply is the direct reason for the soaring price of polysilicon.
From the demand side, the concentrated release of downstream silicon wafer capacity also contributed to the upsurge of polysilicon market. Since July, the downstream has continued to warm up compared with may and June. With the gradual reduction of silicon material inventory of upstream and downstream manufacturers, the market supply is tight. After entering August, the momentum does not change, and the demand for silicon wafers rises. Most silicon wafer manufacturers continue to release new production capacity in the second half of the year, and the demand for polycrystalline silicon has increased. The supply of upstream polysilicon manufacturers has only decreased but not increased, and the supply is in short supply As a result, the price of silicon materials continued to rise. However, the rapid rise of PV upstream and midstream costs also has a serious impact on the terminal cells. According to the industry reaction, the price of polycrystalline cells has not increased significantly, and the cost pressure is high. Now the price has approached the cash cost of manufacturers. Because the current market is mainly driven by domestic rigid investment demand, the data of China Photovoltaic Industry Association shows that from January to June, China’s newly installed photovoltaic power generation capacity was 11.5 GW, an increase of 0.88% year-on-year. Affected by the overseas epidemic situation and the increasingly complex international trade situation, the export volume of photovoltaic modules continued to decline. From January to may in 2020, the export of main products of photovoltaic modules dropped. Among them, the export value of silicon chip was $879 million, the export value of battery chip was $504 million, and the export value of module was US $6.249 billion, a total of US $7.633 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12%.
In the later stage, the business club believes that the polysilicon uplink is mainly due to the decrease of supply. In August, there are still enterprises in the maintenance period. Under the influence of Xinjiang epidemic situation and enterprise review, the market supply will continue to be tense in the whole August. It is expected that polysilicon will still have upward space in the short term.
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