In July, domestic polycrystalline silicon ended the weak consolidation market of the previous few months, and the price rose by a breakthrough. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of polycrystalline silicon rose by 5.70% this month. As of the end of the month, the domestic price of primary polysilicon materials was in the range of 40000-45000 yuan / T. the main reason is that the market supply is tight, especially in some areas, such as Xinjiang, affected by the epidemic, traffic restrictions lead to poor transportation, the cost of polysilicon in large factories rises, and the downstream demand gradually stabilizes, with a certain recovery.
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In July, some domestic polysilicon manufacturers were still in the maintenance period, so the supply pressure was significantly relieved compared with the previous month, and the supply in some markets was tight. According to statistics, as of July 30, there were 4 polysilicon manufacturers still in the maintenance period. The manufacturers mainly carried out line by line maintenance or equipment maintenance, and the domestic and domestic supply pressure was not great. In addition, due to the recent epidemic situation in Xinjiang, the external transportation of large polysilicon factories in Xinjiang was blocked, and the cost increased. Overall, the supply of fundamentals is tight. So there has been a sustained rebound in prices. Moreover, the price of imported silicon materials has also increased, further impacting the domestic market. On the whole, the price of polysilicon has generally increased by 2000-4000 yuan / ton this month.
From the perspective of terminal demand, the general rigid demand still exists, and it is warmer than that in June. With the gradual reduction of silicon material inventory of upstream and downstream manufacturers and the tightening of market supply, on the contrary, the demand for silicon wafers is rising. The operating rate of monocrystalline silicon enterprises maintains full production, and the newly expanded capacity is released on schedule. The demand for monocrystalline silicon continues to rise. At the same time, the demand for polycrystalline silicon is also associated with the boost of market demand It goes up, pushing up prices. However, from the point of view of terminal cells, it is also questionable whether the upstream silicon material price can continue to rise. According to the industry reaction, the price of polycrystalline battery chips has not been significantly increased, and the cost pressure is high. Now the price is approaching the cash cost of manufacturers. Some manufacturers of polycrystalline cells have begun to plan to overhaul and stop production. This is from home on the one hand, and more importantly, it is brought by the epidemic Under the influence of the new global epidemic situation, the export of main products in January to may in 2020 will decline, of which the export value of silicon chip, battery chip and module will be 879 million US dollars, 504 million US dollars and 6.249 billion US dollars respectively, totaling 7.633 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 12%.
In the later stage, the business club believes that the current price of polysilicon continues to rebound, mainly due to the reduction of supply, and the cycle of polysilicon de stocking has basically come to an end. It is expected that there will still be enterprises in the maintenance period in August, with the impact of the epidemic situation in Xinjiang superimposed, and the supply pressure is expected to be tight in August. However, the market can continue to rebound is also more difficult. At present, the demand for polysilicon mainly comes from domestic rigid demand. Foreign demand is still weak, and the overseas epidemic situation is still relatively severe. The export data of photovoltaic modules in June has not been released, which may still fall compared with the previous level. It still needs time to improve the external demand. It is estimated that polysilicon is currently bottoming out and stabilizing, and whether it can continue to rise in the future remains to be further observed.
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