1、 Price trend
The domestic BDO market continued to decline. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic BDO market price at the beginning of the week was 8700 yuan / ton, and the average domestic BDO market price at the end of the week was 8366 yuan / ton. The price fell 3.84% in the week, 9.46% month on month, 6.00% year-on-year.
2、 Market analysis
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This week, the domestic BDO market continued to rock bottom. With the price of raw calcium carbide moving up significantly, the cost side support is obvious, BDO production profits are greatly squeezed, and the production enterprises have no intention to yield profits. From May 26 to 27, Mercer and Tunhe announced that BDO settled 8430 yuan / ton in East China and 8530 yuan / ton in South China in May, 8400 yuan / ton in East China and 8500 yuan / ton in South China in June; Henan energy and Shaanxi chemical settled 8250 yuan / ton in East China and 8350 yuan / ton in South China in May, 8200 yuan / ton in East China and 8300 yuan / ton in South China in June. Compared with the previous month, they all fell sharply, which made the air atmosphere more attractive to the industry. The downstream price is obviously depressed.
In terms of devices, the restart time of Dongyuan, Ronghe and Ronghe is uncertain this week; hecian plans to restart at the beginning of June; MEC’s load is 50%, and the whole line will be shut down for maintenance from June 3 to June 30; Tianye’s phase I 30000 ton device will be shut down for maintenance on May 18, and it is expected to restart in the middle of June, and the restart time of other devices will be determined; Tunhe’s phase I 50%, and phase II will be shut down; Xinye’s catalyst will be replaced in the evening of March 25 It is planned to restart at the end of June; Sinopec’s load is reduced to about 50%; black cat’s load is about 50%, and maintenance is planned in June; Kaixiang’s two units are in full load operation; Panjin Dalian’s maintenance plan in June; Guotai’s maintenance plan in early June at the end of May.
In terms of raw materials, methanol, the overall methanol market this week showed a downward trend, and the delivery atmosphere was general. In the first half of the week, the turnover was light, and in the second half of the week, the main olefin factories in Ningxia increased their efforts in the external procurement, while the inventory pressure of the factories in the north and south of Shaanxi was slightly relieved. At the beginning of the week, the delivery of goods in Guanzhong area was not good, the factory’s secondary adjustment quotation fell to 1400-1430 yuan / ton of ex warehouse spot exchange, the factory’s inventory was running at a high level, and the business owners held a bearish attitude towards this, and the trading atmosphere in the second half of the week was still stalemate.
Calcium carbide: in recent years, the domestic calcium carbide market is in short supply. Since May 10, the ex factory price in Wuhai has been increased by 300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream transaction price is 2600 yuan / ton. Driven by the rapid price increase, the early production of calcium carbide devices is planned to start or increase the load. At present, some calcium carbide furnaces are still in the opening stage, and there are commodity quantities put on the market in succession.
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Downstream demand: PBT: normal operation of Kaixiang device; Meiyuan, Shandong weijiao; one line of Kanghui, followed by or reopened; Yizheng Chemical fiber load of about 60%; Wuxi Xingsheng load of 3-40%; Tunhe device current load of 50%; Changshu Changchun load of 50%. Meizhou Bay operates normally.
3、 Future forecast
Raw material calcium carbide rose sharply, BDO production profit changed from profit to loss, and production enterprises mostly held a mentality of stop and stabilize, so many main factories planned to stop maintenance in June, aiming to achieve the purpose of keeping the price. However, the demand side has not improved significantly, and the cost and inventory pressure are concerned, and the downstream industries maintain the rigid demand to bargain hunting. Although the on-site operating rate of BDO starts to decline next week, the early inventory is to be digested, and the shipment is still the current key work. BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will continue to decline next week, but there is limited space to focus on downstream construction and device maintenance.
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