Price trend of pure benzene in 2019
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the overall trend of pure benzene in 2019 is fluctuating. As of December 19, the average price of mainstream pure benzene production enterprises was 5760 yuan / ton, up 1360 yuan / ton or 30.91% compared with 4400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 4).
The lowest average price of the listing price of pure benzene enterprises in the whole year is from April 3 to April 8, with a price of 4200 yuan / ton; the highest average price is from September 18 to September 22, with a price of 5870 yuan / ton, with a price difference of 1670 yuan / ton.
From the above figure, there are four obvious rising stages of pure benzene.
First stage up and down:
The average listing price of pure benzene enterprises rose from 4400 yuan / ton at the beginning of January (January 4) to 4930 yuan / ton at the highest price on February 26, an increase of 12.05%. From March 4 to April 4, it reached the lowest price of 4200 yuan / ton, down 14.81%
In January and February, the port inventory of pure benzene was higher than 200000 tons, and the downstream product profit was high, the unit operation rate was good, and the demand for pure benzene was good.
Affected by the water incident on March 21, the safety committee of the State Council issued an emergency notice to comprehensively carry out the centralized investigation and treatment of potential safety hazards of hazardous chemicals. Some chemical enterprises are temporarily shut down due to the impact. The downstream aniline production involves nitrification reaction, there are many enterprises with limited production and stop, and the demand for pure benzene is limited.
Second stage up and down:
On June 10, the listing price of pure benzene enterprises rose rapidly. On June 10, the average price of 4436 yuan / ton rose to the highest price of 5240.2 yuan / ton on July 19, an increase of 18.13%. From July 26 to August 12, it reached the lowest price of 5025 yuan / ton, down 4.11%
In the middle of June, the domestic pure benzene port inventory began to drop sharply, and the downstream styrene was good to stimulate, so the price of pure benzene began to rise. By July, there was a supply gap of pure benzene in the United States, which resulted in a huge price gap between the United States and South Korea. A large number of South Korean sources turned to the United States for arbitrage, resulting in a sharp drop in the export of pure benzene to China, stimulating domestic prices to continue to rise.
In the later period, the external market weakened and the downstream market was weak, which brought negative impact.
Third stage up and down:
The third phase of the increase followed the end of the second phase. On August 14 (average price: 5025 yuan / ton), it rose to the highest price of 5870 yuan / ton on September 18, an increase of 16.82%. From September 22 to October 31, it reached the lowest price of 5260 yuan / ton, down 10.39%
The port inventory of pure benzene continued to decline, and the spot supply of pure benzene market was tight. In addition, the Saudi incident in September triggered a sharp rise in crude oil, which led to a sharp rise in pure benzene.
At the end of September, the impact of Saudi Arabia incident subsided, crude oil and external market fell; and the downstream environmental protection inspection, some factories stopped production and limited production, just in short supply, the market fell back. After the festival, the supply of hydrogenated benzene increased, and the coking industry continued to break through the new low, which had a great impact on pure benzene.
The fourth stage of growth:
December 8 (average price 5300 yuan / ton) began to rise, as of December 20, the price was 5760 yuan / ton, up 8.68%.
The port inventory of pure benzene broke through a new low and kept below 100000 tons. The market negotiation atmosphere improved, the spot supply of pure benzene was tight, and the price picked up.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
Crude oil soars in 2019:
As of December 20, 2019, the annual increase of international oil price is more than 30%.
Brent oil price rose 35.41% in the first quarter, fell 2.71% in the second quarter, rose 2.01% in the third quarter and rose 10.78% in the fourth quarter. The year-round increase was 34.39%.
WTI oil prices rose 32.19% in the first quarter, 2.92% in the second quarter, 3.28% in the third quarter and 11.97% in the fourth quarter. The year-round increase was 32.54%.
In 2019, the international oil market is under the background of Sino US trade war and oil economic slowdown. OPEC’s production reduction has been twists and turns, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have deepened. From the perspective of the future market, there are two major factors affecting the international oil price in 2020: 1. The implementation of OPEC + production reduction; 2. The actual decline of crude oil demand brought about by the global economic cooling. We should also continue to pay attention to the possible variables in the global trade environment.
In 2019, pure benzene port inventory continued to decrease:
At the beginning of 2019, the port inventory of pure benzene was about 200000 tons, and by December 20, 2019, the port inventory of pure benzene was about 82000 tons, a decrease of 118000 tons, or 59%.
In the first quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene increased. At the beginning of the quarter, the port inventory was about 200000 tons, and at the end of the quarter, it was about 247000 tons. In the first quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene increased by 47000 tons, or 23.5%.
In the second quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene decreased, about 211000 tons at the end of the quarter. In the second quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 36000 tons or 14.57%.
In the third quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene decreased significantly, with 147000 tons at the end of the quarter. In the third quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 64000 tons or 30.33%.
In the fourth quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene continued to decline, and the port inventory at the end of the quarter was about 82000 tons. In the fourth quarter, pure benzene port inventory decreased by 65000 tons, a decrease of 44.22%.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
Downstream consumption of pure benzene:
In the past five years, the downstream products of pure benzene have developed rapidly, such as styrene and caprolactam, aniline and adipic acid, and phenol ketone. As the largest downstream of pure benzene, styrene is widely used in the production of plastics and other products, and its end products are mostly used in the field of people’s livelihood. With the continuous development of domestic economic situation, the demand for styrene is increasing day by day, which promotes the domestic styrene production capacity to expand year by year, and the demand for pure benzene will continue to increase. In 2019, the downstream aniline plant will be shut down permanently, and the demand for pure benzene will decrease to some extent, but the overall demand is relatively stable.
Future forecast:
In 2020, the price of pure benzene mainly focuses on crude oil, external pure benzene and downstream demand. At present, crude oil is supported by OPEC’s deepening production reduction and the improvement of Sino-U.S. trade relations. The demand for downstream styrene and other products is strong, the production capacity is likely to continue to increase, and the demand for pure benzene will continue to increase. So at present, it is very difficult for the price of pure benzene in 2020 to appear the situation in the first quarter of 2019. In the later stage, the price will continue to maintain a high level of shock or rise.
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