Price trend

Recent domestic PA66 market trends. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, on March 17th, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA66 was 20500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -2.38% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week, the market for PA66 weakened, and spot prices remained stagnant after falling. In terms of supply, the overall monthly load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently around 65%, unchanged from last week. Enterprise operations continue to be biased towards destocking, with general inventory pressure and relatively abundant on-site supply. On the upstream side, the raw material hexamethylene diamine fluctuated in a narrow range, while on the adipic acid side, due to the weakness of pure benzene, the load was increased before, and the market was under pressure before finishing operation. PA66 raw material side has poor support for spot goods. In terms of demand, the situation is weak and difficult to change. Terminal enterprises just need to follow up on their purchases and maintenance. Buyers generally have strong resistance to high-priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation market in the short term.

Aftermarket Forecast

The spot price of PA66 fell this week. The raw material market is relatively soft, weakening the support for PA66 cost side. The load of PA66 enterprises remained stable, and the overall inventory position was average. Demand side delivery is weak, and it is expected that PA66 may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Trade name: hydrochloric acid

Latest price (March 16th): 190.00 yuan/ton

On March 16th, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid rose significantly, increasing by 14 yuan/ton or 7.95% compared to March 15th, and a year-on-year decrease of 44.32% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the market of upstream liquid chlorine has increased significantly, with increased cost support. The market of downstream polyaluminum chloride has declined slightly, and the market of ammonium chloride has consolidated at a high level. The willingness to purchase downstream is generally low.

Recently, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid has fluctuated slightly, with an average market price of around 200 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the price of flake caustic soda was weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 3733.33 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 3500 yuan/ton. The price fell 6.25%, down 15.32% year on year. This week, the market remained weak.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the survey data of the Business Agency, the domestic caustic soda price fell this week. The average market price in Shandong is about 800-870 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of 32% of the mainstream liquid caustic soda in Hebei is about 850-1150 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the site is weak. The overall supply of caustic soda is relatively sufficient, the downstream demand is less than expected, the intra-field trading atmosphere is weak, and there is lack of favorable factors to support, and the downstream is cautious.

The analysts of the Business Agency believe that the market for caustic soda is weak, the market trading atmosphere is general, the downstream demand is weak, and the wait-and-see mentality is dominant, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is general. The operators are cautious and the price center continues to decline. The supply of low-price goods in the market has increased without the support of favorable factors. In general, the short-term or weak operation of the price of caustic soda depends on the downstream market demand.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose. As of the 13th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8637.5 yuan/ton, up 1.92% from the price of 8475 yuan/ton on the 6th, down 5.6% year on year.

Supply side: stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

In the near future, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated steadily, and the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated stably. At present, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is about 60%, the supply of goods is normal, the delivery of phthalic anhydride has improved, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen.

Cost side: the price of orthobenzene market rises

The price trend of domestic ortho-phenyl rose. As of the 13th, the price of ortho-phenyl was 8500 yuan/ton, and the price trend of this week rose by 2.41%. The ortho-phenyl supply was normal, and the plant operation in the field was stable, but the port inventory declined. The rise of ortho-phenyl price brought some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride rose.

On the demand side: the trend of DOP market is volatile, and procurement is based on demand

The price trend of downstream DOP market fluctuated, with a slight decline of 0.6% this week. At present, the domestic DOP price is 9960 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have started to operate steadily, and the demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand. The mainstream price of DOP is 9900-10000 yuan/ton. The demand of plasticizer industry is weak, and the price of phthalic anhydride is low due to the fluctuation of DOP price, but the overall price rises slightly due to the support of raw materials.

In the future, the price trend of ortho-xylene is mainly rising in the short term, but the market of downstream plasticizer industry is fluctuating, the supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the demand is general. It is expected that the market price trend of ortho-xylene phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell first and then rose this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market fell from 7300 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7100.00 yuan/ton on March 8, down 2.74%. Then it rose to 7266.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 2.35%. Overall, the price of isobutyraldehyde fell 0.46% this week. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 48.58% year-on-year. The isobutyraldehyde commodity index on March 12 was 36.89, which was the same as yesterday, down 65.06% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 22.48% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotations of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose and fell each other this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde fell first and then rose this week. The price fell from 7516.60 yuan/ton on March 4 to 7334.60 yuan/ton on March 7, a decrease of 2.42%, and then rose to 7464.60 yuan/ton on March 10, an increase of 1.77%. On the whole, the propylene price fell by 0.69% this week. The year-on-year decline was 18.60%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, from 11200.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10866.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.98%. The market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late March may be mainly volatile. The upstream propylene market fell slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. The market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream has a downward trend, and the purchasing enthusiasm in the downstream is general. The isobutyraldehyde analyst of the Business Club believes that the short-term isobutyraldehyde market may suffer from small fluctuations and falls under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other factors.