In September, aluminum prices first strengthened and then weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 26, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20783.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76% compared to the market average price of 20636.67 yuan/ton on September 1.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 20000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
Recent favorable factors
Aluminum inventory in the previous period decreased (warehouse receipts decreased)
According to the data released in the previous issue, on September 26, 2025, the aluminum futures warehouse receipts were 63230 tons, a decrease of 1178 tons compared to the previous period.
Electrolytic aluminum inventory remains relatively low
On September 25th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumer areas in China was 614000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the social inventory of 620000 tons on September 4th, and a decrease of 23000 tons from the social inventory of 637000 tons on September 22nd. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased first and then decreased during the month. In the early stage (9.4-9.22), the inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, partly due to the high operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum and sufficient supply. On the other hand, although the peak consumption season of “Golden September” has arrived and some downstream enterprise orders have improved, the overall demand growth may not have fully absorbed the newly added supply, resulting in a slight increase in inventory. As the holiday approaches, the demand for replenishing inventory in the market has increased this week, while social inventory has decreased.
The inventory of aluminum bars in the market has decreased (inventory reduction)
As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of aluminum bars in mainstream consumption areas in China has dropped to 123000 tons, a significant decrease of 12000 tons from last Thursday. This is mainly due to the increase in market automobile transportation, the continuous low operation of warehouse arrival volume, and limited supply side increment; As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream processing enterprises have started pre holiday stocking, leading to a month on month increase in outbound volume of 0.41 million tons to 4.75 million tons. On September 26th, the total inventory of aluminum bars in China (51500 tons in Guangdong and 26500 tons in Wuxi) was 78000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from the previous period.
Recent bearish factors
The spot price of alumina has fallen (average price has decreased)
Recently, the spot price of alumina has shown a downward trend, with an average price decrease. On September 26th, the spot price of domestic alumina partially fell, with prices in the southern region of China ranging from 3080 to 3130 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous trading day; The price of alumina per ton in East China is between 2910-2950 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous trading day; The prices of alumina in the southwest and northwest regions remained unchanged from the previous trading day. Since September, the spot price of metallurgical grade alumina in China has continued to decline, with a decrease of over 2.5% compared to the end of August and a decrease of nearly 20% compared to the same period last year.
Future forecast
Raw material side: The operating capacity of alumina is at a high level and continues to accumulate inventory, with limited cost support for aluminum prices.
Downstream demand side: As the peak season in China gradually approaches, the demand for aluminum ingots in stock has improved, and the operating rate of primary processing enterprises has increased month on month.

Overall, the upward space for aluminum prices has narrowed, but the trend is mainly based on the actual demand landing downstream, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate in the short term.

In September, the overall price of polyester filament showed a gradual decline trend. As of September 28th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6500-6800 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7800-8100 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6800-7000 yuan/ton.
Insufficient cost support: Although OPEC’s October production increase plan is lower than expected, the restart of some PTA maintenance facilities has increased supply pressure, resulting in a decline in spot prices and a slight decrease in ethylene glycol prices. The weakness of the raw material side makes polyester filament lack the driving force for cost increase.
Weak demand performance on the demand side: The recovery of demand during the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” peak season is relatively weak. Although the operating rate of downstream weaving enterprises has rebounded, it is still declining compared to the same period last year. The inventory of raw fabric is high, and the total number of new orders has not significantly increased. Purchasing is mainly based on small orders for essential needs, and the production and sales data of polyester filament are light.
There is significant pressure on the supply side: despite mainstream production companies collaborating to reduce production in the early stages, the industry’s operating rate remains relatively high at 91.3%, indicating a high supply pressure. And over time, some companies have limited willingness to continue large-scale production cuts based on cash flow and market share considerations, and the supply side’s support for prices has gradually weakened.
Inventory pressure rises: Throughout the first and middle of September, the market was shrouded in high inventory. As of September 18th, the factory inventory of POY, FDY, and DTY reached high levels of 20.6 days, 28.8 days, and 31.5 days, respectively. In order to alleviate inventory pressure, polyester factories have to continue offering discounts and promotions. Due to sustained low production and sales, the inventory pressure of polyester filament factories continues to increase. To alleviate inventory pressure, some companies have chosen to offer discounts and promotions, further suppressing market prices.
Market sentiment is cautious: Against the backdrop of no substantial positive developments in costs, demand, and supply, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and industry concerns about the “long-term decline” have intensified. The low trading enthusiasm of both buyers and sellers has also made it difficult for prices to rise significantly.
Business Society believes that short-term prices will remain weak and fluctuate. Currently, downstream weaving enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm, mainly focusing on replenishing inventory for essential needs. The production and sales rate of polyester filament factories is sluggish, and inventory pressure continues to rise. Meanwhile, the prices of upstream raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol have fluctuated weakly, further weakening cost support. In addition, the market is increasingly concerned about the accumulation of inventory during the National Day holiday, and companies have a strong willingness to sell their inventory. They may continue to offer discounts and promotions to suppress prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and slightly declining recently (9.17-9.23). As of September 23, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 14883 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% from 15091 yuan/ton on September 17. On the one hand, the high prices of natural rubber raw materials have fallen, which has weakened the support for the natural rubber market; On the other hand, downstream suppliers restock according to their immediate needs before the holiday, but they are cautious about inquiries from high priced sources, resulting in significant market resistance and a slight decline in natural rubber prices. As of September 23, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 14800~15050 yuan/ton.
As of September 23, the price of Thai glue was 55.30 baht/kg, a decrease of 1.60% from 56.20 baht/kg on September 17. In the early stage, the production of natural rubber raw materials in the market decreased due to natural factors. In September, with the improvement of weather conditions, the supply of raw materials has recovered, and the high level of natural rubber raw materials has slightly fallen, which has slightly weakened the support for the natural rubber market.
Recently (9.17-9.23), downstream tire production has slightly increased, providing essential support for the natural rubber market. As of September 18th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 7.5%; The production of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly decreased to around 6.5%.
Market forecast: The current high and firm prices of raw materials both domestically and internationally, as well as stable downstream tire production and consolidation, provide support for the Tianjin rubber market. The Tianjin rubber port inventory has slightly decreased, and with the arrival of the peak season, it is expected that the natural rubber market will fluctuate and rise in the later period.

Last week (September 15-21, 2025), the demand fatigue did not change, and there was no significant improvement in the demand of the end market. Downstream factories held onto rigid procurement from multiple sources, and the trading atmosphere on site was flat; The weekly closing price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam has been lowered to 9078 yuan/ton. The high-speed spinning and slicing market for PA6 chips is mainly deadlocked, with weak cost support. The market price of nylon fiber is mainly consolidating, and the price continues to be weak and stable.
Nylon filament prices remain weak and stable
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of nylon filament remained weak and stable last week (September 15-21, 2025). As of September 21, 2025, DTY (premium product) of nylon filament in Jiangsu region; 70D/24F) quoted 14320 yuan/ton; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) quoted 12050 yuan/ton; The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is quoted at 14900 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous period.
Weak and small movements on the raw material side
In terms of cost: Last week (September 15-21, 2025), the spot market price of caprolactam fell weakly during the week. The weekly closing price of Sinopec caprolactam was 9078 yuan/ton (interest free for six-month acceptance). The nylon PA6 chip market was mainly weakly consolidated, with stable price trends and weak cost support. As of September 21, 2025, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 88795 yuan/ton, mainly due to weak price consolidation, with a weekly decline of 0.12%. During the week, the market price of high-speed spun nylon PA6 chips remained weak, stable, and fluctuating, with weak cost support being the main factor.
Supply and demand: During the week, the operating rate of some nylon filament manufacturers’ facilities decreased, and the overall market supply was sufficient. However, the industry inventory level still showed an increasing trend, and the supply side performance was poor; The demand in the end market is weak, and some downstream manufacturers have reduced production or switched production, resulting in a decrease in demand for nylon filament. It is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, and many parties are following suit with rigid demand. Many industry players are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.
Future forecast
Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, the expectation for pure benzene is weak, and slice manufacturers have low enthusiasm for purchasing caprolactam. It is expected that the caprolactam market will remain weak and mainly consolidate at a low level in the short term; In terms of nylon PA6 chips, cost support is limited, and the supply level of PA6 chips in the market may continue to improve. Downstream market demand is weak, and it is expected that the market price of nylon PA6 chips will weakly decline.
Supply and demand: Traditional market demand is expected to improve in September, and the trading atmosphere will also improve. Therefore, it is expected that there may be an increase in demand for nylon filament market next month. However, under the current inventory pressure, some nylon filament manufacturers may have the possibility of reducing their production capacity, while the industry continues to release new production capacity, resulting in overall supply pressure remaining relatively high.
Overall, the upstream raw material caprolactam spot market and nylon PA6 chip market will continue to operate weakly, with a lack of cost support, high supply pressure, and difficulty in improving downstream market demand. Follow up on demand will be the main focus, and good news will not appear. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will continue to be weak and stable, with weak price consolidation as the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of polyester staple fiber was adjusted narrowly and weakly this week (September 15-19). As of September 19, the average market price of polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6459 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% from the beginning of the week.
In the crude oil market, on the one hand, Russia and Ukraine have triggered potential supply risks, especially concerns about the supply of crude oil from a certain European country have once again increased. Coupled with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, international oil prices have risen recently, supporting PTA costs. As of September 18th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.26 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $66.92 per barrel.
The PTA factory’s plan to restart the equipment has been postponed, and the overall demand side has not changed much. The cost side support is still acceptable, and the domestic PTA market is mainly experiencing narrow fluctuations this week. As of September 19th, the average market price of PTA in East China was 4631 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.01% from the beginning of the week. PTA processing fees are still at a low level for the year, and the current operating rate of the domestic industry is around 76%. Recently, there are expectations of a restart of domestic facilities, but some PTA factories have added maintenance plans for October and November, which is positive for market sentiment.
On the demand side, without clear direction guidance, most yarn factories adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and the overall market trading is flat, with prices temporarily stable, and actual transactions mostly following the market. The traditional peak season is not prosperous, the terminal performance is lukewarm, the order situation is generally lower than expected, and the market’s wait-and-see sentiment is spreading.
Business analysts believe that in the short term, cost support is still acceptable, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is hindered, and the market lacks substantial positive support. The price of polyester staple fiber may show a downward trend.