The domestic acetic acid market is in a weak consolidation situation, with low raw material methanol prices and insufficient cost support. Acetic acid enterprises have no inventory pressure and maintain active shipments. Downstream performance is average, with low capacity utilization rate and limited demand for acetic acid. The main focus is on purchasing according to demand when entering the market. The market trading atmosphere is light, and under the supply and demand stalemate, the price trend of acetic acid is weak.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 16, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 3133.33 yuan/ton, 1.05% lower than the price of 3166.67 yuan/ton on June 10, and 2.59% lower than the beginning of the month. As of June 16th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the week were as follows:

Region/ June 9th/ June 16th/ Price fluctuations

South China/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3025 yuan/ton/ -50

North China/ 2850 yuan/ton/ 2850 yuan/ton/ 0

Shandong region/ 2900 yuan/ton/ 2850 yuan/ton/ -50

Jiangsu region/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 2900 yuan/ton/ -100

Zhejiang region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3000 yuan/ton/ -100

The upstream raw material methanol market first fell and then rose. As of June 16, the average price in the domestic market was 2074.17 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 0.04% compared to the price of 2075.00 yuan/ton on June 10. Futures prices rose, while raw coal prices first fell and then rose, bringing benefits to the methanol market. Downstream is in the traditional off-season, with weak demand performance. The methanol market is stagnant and consolidating, and the spot price of methanol is fluctuating.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is operating weakly. As of June 16th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the price of 5225.00 yuan/ton on June 10th. Upstream acetic acid prices have fallen, acetic anhydride costs have decreased, acetic anhydride enterprises are operating normally, market supply is sufficient, downstream demand is average, market trading is weak, and acetic anhydride prices have declined.

In the future market forecast, acetic acid analysts from Business Society believe that due to the maintenance of acetic acid plants in some regions, the supply of acetic acid in the market remains rational. However, due to the recovery of maintenance manufacturers’ plants in the later stage, there is an expectation of an increase in market supply, while the downstream production capacity utilization rate is low. Downstream products maintain on-demand tracking, and demand support is insufficient. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the acetic acid market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up situation.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from June 2023 to present, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China has remained stable and slightly fluctuated, with a main price of around 14471 yuan/ton on the 1st and 14400 yuan/ton on the 12th, with a phased decrease of 0.49%.

As shown in the figure, the polyacrylamide market in China continued to decline slightly in the second quarter of 2023, with an increase in weekly decline in April. In May, the decline narrowed to price parity and then continued to decline again. Since June, the decline has continued to slightly increase. Manufacturers in China’s main production areas have normal production and sufficient supply, but downstream demand is average, and purchasing enthusiasm is poor. The situation of strong supply and weak demand continues.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the acrylonitrile market has experienced a slight fluctuation and decline since June. As of June 12th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 8137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.65% from 8625 yuan/ton on the first day. The low consolidation of raw material propylene prices has weak support for acrylonitrile, and the downstream atmosphere is weak. The prices have decreased and the start of production has slightly declined; The supply side is relatively loose. But with the increase of parking companies, the downward trend of acrylonitrile has decreased.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the acrylic acid market has been fluctuating and declining since June. On the 1st, high-quality acrylic acid in the East China market reported around 6050 yuan/ton, but on the 12th, it fell to 5900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.48%. Recently, raw material prices have fluctuated in a narrow range, with average cost support. Some factories and equipment on the supply side have adjusted their load, resulting in a slight decrease in industry operating rates. Downstream inquiries are generally enthusiastic, with weak demand and a weak focus on market negotiations. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has risen since June. Among them, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China on June 1st was 4416 yuan/ton, and on June 12th it was 3728 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 15.58%. Recently, the trend of the domestic liquefied natural gas market has been dominant, with a strong market sentiment towards high prices. The bidding price for raw gas has increased, resulting in a positive cost side effect. It is expected that domestic liquefied natural gas prices will continue to rise in the short term..

Future Market Forecast: Since June, raw materials have been weak, fuel liquefied natural gas has been rising in stages, and the cost of polyacrylamide has been slightly supported compared to the previous period. However, the market supply is sufficient, and the prosperity of the water treatment industry remains low. Downstream demand is not good, and market transactions are poor. Regarding the future market, analysis suggests that polyacrylamide will continue to be stable, moderate, and weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the domestic market price of Isobutyraldehyde fell sharply this week. This week, the average price of Isobutyraldehyde in the domestic mainstream market fell from 7166.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6566.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 8.37%. Weekend prices fell by 57.27% year-on-year. On June 11, the Isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 33.33, unchanged from yesterday, down 68.43% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 10.66% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side, the quotation of Isobutyraldehyde mainstream manufacturers fell slightly this week, and the inventory was low.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of Isobutyraldehyde fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 6270.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6255.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.24%. A year-on-year decrease of 21.12%. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of Isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of Neopentyl glycol fell slightly, from 10200.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9800.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week, a decrease of 3.92%. Neopentyl glycol market declined slightly, and downstream demand was weak, which had a negative impact on Isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of Isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late June may fluctuate and fall mainly. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream Neopentyl glycol market declined slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business agency believe that the short-term Isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a slight shock and decline, mainly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the Isobutyraldehyde market.

Price trend of domestic Sodium metabisulfite

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Sodium metabisulfite in China dropped sharply this week. The average price of industrial Sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2250.00 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 2033.33 yuan/ton, down 9.63%.

Pressed by the continuous weakness of upstream raw material prices, in June, Sodium metabisulfite manufacturers significantly reduced the ex factory price, driving the market price of Sodium metabisulfite down sharply this week, falling to around 1900-2200 yuan/ton as a whole, with most prices concentrated around 1900-2000 yuan/ton. The market price dropped significantly, the wait-and-see attitude of downstream trade entities of Sodium metabisulfite increased, and the increase of new orders of enterprises was limited, mainly to complete orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to external quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been quoted are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the manufacturer’s final pricing. For more information, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

In May, the price of domestic soda ash dropped sharply, falling by 20% in the month. In June, the price of soda ash continued to decline, falling by 6.25% as of June 9. The price of sulfur rose slightly in June, rising by 3.7% in the month. In general, the cost of upstream raw materials continued to decline, and the continued decline in cost will further suppress the price of Sodium metabisulfite market in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the cost of raw materials has dropped significantly, and downstream purchases and sales have become more cautious. Under the pressure of many bad news, it is expected that the domestic Sodium metabisulfite market price will continue to operate under pressure in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of June 6, 2023, the factory price reference of domestic industrial Dimethyl carbonate was 4633 yuan/ton, which was 67 yuan/ton higher than that of June 1, 2023 (the reference price of Dimethyl carbonate was 4566 yuan/ton), or 1.46% higher.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since June (6.1-6.7), the overall domestic market of Dimethyl carbonate has shown a slight upward trend. In June, the downstream demand of the domestic dimethyl carbonate market has improved, and the trading atmosphere in the market has improved. The better demand has driven the focus of the Dimethyl carbonate market to operate slightly. Dimethyl carbonate factories and suppliers in some regions have raised the shipping price of Dimethyl carbonate by 100-200 yuan/ton. As of June 7, the domestic market price of Dimethyl carbonate is around 4500-4900 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the overall trading and investment atmosphere of Dimethyl carbonate in the domestic market is mild, the supply side of Dimethyl carbonate is relatively stable, and the downstream demand side is generally stable and slightly increased. The Dimethyl carbonate data engineer of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic Dimethyl carbonate market will be more stable and stronger, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.