Cobalt prices stopped falling and rebounded in March

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt price on March 13th was 218800 yuan/ton, which decreased and then increased compared to the cobalt price of 218600 yuan/ton on March 1st, with an increase of 0.09%; The cobalt price has increased by 0.55% compared to 217600 yuan/ton on March 6th. During the Spring Festival, during the off-season of the automotive market, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China decreased year-on-year; After the end of the holiday, construction resumed, domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles increased, global production and sales of new energy vehicles increased, demand rebounded, and cobalt prices fell first and then rose in March.

Domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased

According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in February, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 464000 and 477000 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 16% and 9.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to February, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.252 million and 1.207 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 29.4%, and a market share of 30%.

The China Passenger Car Association released an analysis of the national passenger car market for February 2024. In terms of wholesale sales, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 447000 units in February, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% and a month on month decrease of 35.0%. In terms of retail sales, the new energy vehicle market sold 388000 units in February, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6% and a month on month decrease of 42.1%.

In February, the sales of new energy vehicles decreased year-on-year, and the demand for cobalt in the market decreased. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased year-on-year, and the demand for cobalt in the market increased. The Ministry of Commerce has shown significant results in promoting the “100 City Linkage” Automobile Festival and the “Thousand Counties and Ten Thousand Towns” New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season, with continuous efforts in promoting consumption policies in multiple regions, stimulating more demand for car purchases. The sales of new energy vehicles are expected to increase, and the demand for cobalt in the future is expected to rebound.

Rising sales of power batteries

According to data released by South Korean research firm SNE Research, in January 2024, the global registered installed capacity of electric vehicle batteries was approximately 51.5 GWh, an increase of 60.6% compared to the same period last year.

According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in February, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 43.6GWh, a decrease of 33.1% month on month and 3.6% year-on-year. From January to February, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 108.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%. In terms of sales, in February, the total sales of power and other batteries in China were 37.4 GWh, a decrease of 34.6% month on month and 10.1% year-on-year. Among them, the sales of power batteries were 33.5 GWh, accounting for 89.8%, a decrease of 33.4% month on month and 7.6% year-on-year. From January to February, the cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China reached 94.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%; Among them, the cumulative sales of power batteries were 83.9GWh, accounting for 88.8%, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 31.3%. In terms of vehicle installation volume, in February, China’s power battery installation volume was 18.0 GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1% and a month on month decrease of 44.4%. Among them, the installation volume of ternary batteries was 6.9 GWh, accounting for 38.7% of the total installation volume, a year-on-year increase of 3.3% and a month on month decrease of 44.9%. From January to February, the cumulative installed volume of power batteries in China was 50.3GWh, a year-on-year increase of 32.0%; The cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries is 19.5Wh, accounting for 38.9% of the total installed capacity, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 60.8%.

In February, the production, sales, and installed capacity of power batteries in China decreased significantly compared to the previous month, while the installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased significantly compared to the previous month, with a slight year-on-year increase; The production, sales, and installed capacity of power batteries increased significantly year-on-year from January to February. The global electric vehicle battery installation volume increased significantly year-on-year from January to February, leading to an increase in demand in the cobalt market.

According to a report released by market research company Rho Motion, global sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles increased by 3% year-on-year in February 2024, reaching 800000 units. In February, sales in the European market increased by 12% year-on-year, while sales in the US and Canada markets increased by 31%. However, sales in the Chinese market decreased by 12%. Global electric vehicle sales have increased year-on-year, which is favorable for the demand in the cobalt market.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at Business Society, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased year-on-year, while the production, sales, and installed capacity of power batteries have also increased year-on-year. The installed capacity of ternary batteries has also increased year-on-year, and the global production and sales of electric vehicles have also increased year-on-year, leading to an increase in demand in the global cobalt market. Overall, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased year-on-year, with an increase in demand for cobalt and a recovery in demand. In March, cobalt prices first fell and then rose. In the future, demand is expected to recover, and cobalt prices are expected to slowly rise.

1、 Price trend

The downstream market demand is sluggish, and the pressure on potassium chloride to sell has increased. This week, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of potassium chloride has dropped from 2675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2600 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.80% and a year-on-year decrease of 32.47%.

2、 Market analysis

According to data statistics, the final price of 60% potassium in Qinghai over the weekend is around 2700-2860 yuan/ton, with limited new transactions. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2350-2400 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2500-2600 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2300 yuan/ton. The prices of mainstream potassium chloride distributors have slightly decreased during the week.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has slightly declined this week, dropping from 7330 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7300 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.41%, and a year-on-year decrease of 19.78% over the weekend. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5112.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5087.50 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.49%. The weekend price fell 14.45% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride continues to be sluggish, with manufacturers mainly purchasing on demand.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to late March, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of salt lakes and Zangge potassium chloride are temporarily stable, but new transactions are limited. The downstream market for potassium chloride continues to decline, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. Recently, international potassium fertilizer has also shown a weak trend. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

Product Name: PVC

Latest price: 5596 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On March 11th, the PVC spot market price fell, and the overall market trading situation was average. The futures price fell, affecting the confidence of the spot market. Downstream procurement was relatively cautious. The spot market prices have decreased, and the advantage of point pricing has increased.

It is expected that in the short term, the PVC spot market in North China will slightly consolidate and operate within the range.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 2190 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average market price was 2040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.85%, a decrease of 26.62% compared to the same period last year. On March 7th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 105.13, a decrease of 2.56 points from yesterday, a decrease of 44.41% from the highest point in the cycle of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 66.48% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been weak this week. The prices of soda ash in Central China are consolidating, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash around 1900-2100 yuan/ton. The prices of soda ash in Central China are consolidating, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash around 1900-2100 yuan/ton. Data shows that the operating rate of caustic soda this week was around 91%, and the production of caustic soda this week was around 740000 tons.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of glass has slightly declined, with an average market price of 21.97 yuan/square meter at the beginning of the week and 21.39 yuan/square meter on the weekend, a price drop of 2.64% and a year-on-year increase of 14.94%. Glass downstream is purchased on demand.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 9th week of 2024 (2.26-3.1), there were a total of 4 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 1 product that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include hydrochloric acid (5.88%), calcium carbide (1.15%), and caustic soda (0.99%); The main commodities falling are: light soda ash (-2.23%) and baking soda (-0.16%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.85%.

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of pure alkali is weak and the supply of spot alkali plants is fluctuating at a high level, and the inventory of enterprises continues to accumulate. In terms of downstream demand, procurement is not active, and multi-dimensional support is needed to replenish inventory. It is expected that there will be weak operating conditions for caustic soda in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Plasticizer DBP prices continue to decline

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 7th, the DBP price was 9425 yuan/ton, a continuous decrease of 2.33% compared to the DBP price of 9650 yuan/ton on February 29th. The raw material n-butanol has significantly decreased, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, DBP costs have decreased, downstream manufacturers have not recovered well, downstream customers have average purchasing enthusiasm, plasticizer demand is weak, and DBP prices have fluctuated and fallen.

The price of n-butanol has dropped significantly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 7th, the price of n-butanol was 7933.33 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 6.85% compared to February 29th, when the price of n-butanol was 8516.67 yuan/ton. Entering March, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong continued its downward trend from February as a whole. The low-end price of n-butanol is still acceptable for trading, but the overall atmosphere on the market is limited in boosting. The overall supply of n-butanol in Shandong region is loose, and many n-butanol factories are actively offering discounts for shipments. The overall transaction center of n-butanol is constantly moving downwards, and the price of n-butanol has dropped significantly; DBP cost support has decreased.

Isooctanol prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 7th, the quotation for isooctanol was 12300 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.11% compared to February 29th at 12437.50 yuan/ton. The production of isooctanol has resumed, and the supply of isooctanol has increased; The shipment situation of isooctanol factories is average, with downstream low-priced transactions still acceptable, while high priced isooctanol shipments are poor. The focus of isooctanol transactions has shifted downwards, downstream demand is weak, isooctanol prices fluctuate and fall, and the cost of plasticizer DBP has decreased.

Limited downstream demand for new additions

The downstream PVC market is still operating well, and the bulk material orders are generally accepted. The global economic situation has a significant impact on the demand for PVC paste resin. With the recovery of the global economy, especially the growth of emerging markets, the demand for PVC paste resin has correspondingly increased. At present, the PVC factory has received orders until April, with limited new orders in the later period. However, overall production has improved compared to last year, and the overall performance of the bulk materials is still average. After the epidemic, the PVC paste resin market orders have been weak, the overall demand in the PVC market is average, the PVC market situation is weak, and the demand for plasticizer DBP is weak.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials: n-butanol has dropped significantly, isooctanol prices have fluctuated and fallen, and DBP raw material costs support has decreased; Plasticizer enterprises resume production, with sufficient supply of DBP; The downstream PVC market is weak, with weak demand for plasticizer DBP, and overall weak supply and demand for DBP. In the future, there is still downward pressure on raw materials such as n-butanol and isooctanol, and the cost support for plasticizer DBP is decreasing; The supply of plasticizer DBP manufacturers in the future is difficult to increase, and downstream PVC demand is expected to rebound. The cost of plasticizer DBP in the future will decrease, supply will decrease, and demand will increase. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DBP in the future will be weak and consolidate.