In the stable coal prices and other policies continue to force, the market is expected to strengthen the bearish. May 17, “Economic Information Daily” reporter learned from the Qinhuangdao Coal Network, the latest issue of the Bohai Sea thermal coal price index to close at 593 yuan / ton, the chain down 3 yuan / ton, has been the eighth consecutive decline, Expanded.

This year, coal prices continue to be high, coal and electricity conflicts intensified, the National Development and Reform Commission frequently shot control. May Shenhua, China Coal took the lead in lowering the price of coal.

At the same time, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia and other major coal-producing areas began to implement 330 working days. Recently, the Development and Reform Commission issued “on further speed up the construction of coal mine capacity replacement work notice”, asked to increase the proportion of coal production capacity replacement, replacement progress has been determined, the future progress of advanced coal production capacity is expected to accelerate.

“In April, the national coal production of 294.53 million tons, an increase of 9.9%, the growth rate was significantly enlarged in the country to strengthen security and other relevant policies under the guidance of coal production release significantly, while the relevant ministries are also studying the introduction of poor imports of coal Related measures, and more measures, the coal prices will gradually return to a reasonable range. “Qinhuangdao coal network analyst Qi Bo analysis said.

In addition, due to the upstream areas, environmental monitoring intensified, are not allowed to open storage of coal, and deadline for rectification, but the open storage of coal to sell, making the rapid decline in coal prices, “is expected to gradually down the inventory to the middle reaches of the port and downstream power plants, So the recent thermal coal prices will plunge the situation. “Shen Wanhong source research reported.

From the demand side, April and May for the traditional power demand off-season. Qinhuangdao coal network monitoring data show that the six major coastal power plant inventory has been restored to more than 12 million tons, the number of available days rose to 20 days.

Watson Wanda futures analysis also pointed out that in May, after all, coal demand is off-season, especially in March after the “off-season is not light”, the latter part of the coal price is expected to go through a longer period of decline, the expected decline will continue to In mid-June, to be peak summer power plant began to prepare coal, coal demand will pick up.

In the past just “Spring ploughing and selling fertilizer” tug of war, many provinces and channel enterprises and agricultural production enterprises “defeated.” Among them, has always been favored by farmers in the East three provinces market more “Waterloo”, some dealers to reduce sales almost equal to 30% or more. In addition, according to industry sources, due to market downturn, some companies reluctantly will be transferred to the Northeast three provinces.

And the strange thing is, in a reporter interviewed a number of three provinces and farmers in the process of farmers, they feedback the local farmers with the total amount of fertilizer has not drastically reduced, the planting structure has not been a substantial adjustment. So, why business and dealer sales plummeted? This phenomenon, the reporter conducted an in-depth investigation.

Phenomenon: sales sharp drop 20% -50%, profits dropped!

Shenyang Jinqiu Real Agriculture Co., Ltd. General Manager Wang Yanmin with “unprecedented plain” to describe just past the spring plowing fat situation. “Although years ago, after the year were two batches of goods, but take a crop as a stubble before the sale of fat there is a small climax, this year is extremely flat on the end.” Wang Yanmin predicted, according to this year , The best annual sales will be more than 40,000 tons, which compared to last year will be reduced by about 34%.

And this phenomenon, Liaoning Gaoyuan Jinjie source of agricultural limited liability company general manager Xu Guilong is even more pessimistic. “Last year before the Spring Festival began to ship, and this year until the market in March to start in previous year sales of more than 10,000 tons, according to this sign, this year I am afraid to play on the sale of the fold.” According to Xu Guilong said that the local with him There are a few resembling resellers.

Channel sales were tragically “Waterloo”, agricultural production enterprises have not been spared. Jilin Huilong Fertilizer Co., Ltd. General Manager Chen Hu sigh, in recent years, especially in the first quarter of this year, the formal compound fertilizer and mixed fertilizer manufacturers in the three northeastern provinces of the living conditions are extremely difficult: “early raw material prices are relatively low But on the whole, most of the ex-factory prices are very low pressure, profit meager. “According to Chen Hu introduced, although the first quarter of Jilin in the first half of the year, the company’s profits, City Huilong fertilizer industry rely on mature outlets and grasp of the market, the performance does not drop increase. But indeed some agricultural production enterprises in the first quarter sales reduction of more than about 20%.

Reporters initially inferred, resulting in this year’s agricultural channels and manufacturers of sales decline in the reasons may be due to the Northeast three provinces to adjust the structure, as well as peasant fertilizer caused by a sharp drop. However, through interviews found that this judgment does not stand very well. According to Liaoning and Heilongjiang farmers say, most of the local counties and cities of corn acreage has not been a huge reduction. Farmers have not plummeted fertilizer, but only a limited reduction. This can not help but wonder, those who decline in the performance of dealers and manufacturers of sales, where to go? How is it not change it?

Deep digging: who is squeezing the channels and the living space of the business?

According to the reporter to understand, the new business main body climbing, land transfer and custody business scale, foolishness group serious outbreak, food prices downturn and planting structure adjustment and other issues, this year farmers recognized the important impact of agricultural market.

Among them, the rapid increase in the cultivation of large, co-operatives, the number of family farms, and they directly to the manufacturers bargain model, the most pressure to increase the channel operators. According to Liaoning Anshan Zhongtai fertilizer distribution office to allow observation, although so far, the local real scale of the new business is not too much, but from this year’s development trend, very rapid. At the same time, a large area of land management business is also forming. I would like to let this year, a friend of Taian County, breathtaking 4,000 acres of land. The land supply of these land, as well as from the kind of income to the work, by the land management company package. An acre of land to friends 400 dollars. In addition, there is a Guangdong company this year in Italy Fuyuan County contract 100 million mu of rice, agricultural products are also directly related with the agricultural production enterprises. Will let the emotion, the involvement of foreign capital and the rise of big, so that more and more difficult to do channel operators.

In addition, due to a serious outbreak of this year’s flicker group led to regular manufacturers and channel operators by the impact of the phenomenon, but also become the most agricultural farmers Tucao point. “In the first quarter of this year, the light in the Gongzhuling investigated and dealt with more than 10.” According to an industry source, this year in the East three provinces have a kind of (18-15-12), but carefully found only 50 kg of mixed fertilizer, 80% are amino acid particles, that is to say , Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium and sulfur and other elements of nutrients only 20%. But the people do not understand, immersed in the less spent more than 20 dollars to buy and the content of formal mixed fertilizer like the joy. In addition, according to Wang Yanmin said that these small manufacturers of the distribution speed is also very fast: “local places are not regular logo small manufacturers, they turned the tricks to cheat farmers with fertilizer this year we went to the grassroots distribution when found , These fat has long been quietly paved into a lot of villages. This is really give us the impact of the formal channel is not a little leeway.

In addition, the food price downturn and planting structure adjustment on the adverse effects of agricultural sales can not be ignored. “The original price of corn is not high, let the people do not love farming, the results of this year, Liaoning is also drought, farmers this year’s harvest more heart drums in previous years will generally catch up with urea, this year probably also hung.” Liaoning open eight trees Town Xia Jiacun growers Xu Hualong said that this year’s cheap fertilizer sales in the local can, but the big brands because the price is no advantage, by the impact of great. In addition, for the planting structure adjustment, Heilongjiang Jixi City co-owner Yang Sihua said that some of the cold areas of the northeastern part of the corn area is relatively large, the original acres of fertilizer with 0.6-0.7 tons of fertilizer, soybean varieties, With 0.2-0.3 tons of fertilizer, (to verify whether to send cool) This is indeed some parts of the dealer sales have an impact.

“Now the agricultural business can be said to be tasteless, abandoned the pity. Fought so many years, I could not bear to give up, but do not give up also do not earn any money. This is not a person I feel, a lot of people are Have the same feeling. “Xu Guilong feeling.

Measures: the market is difficult, how to break through the dilemma!

Will let the words, not far from the future, purely focused on “low buy high and sell” agricultural distributors, will die. Modern agriculture needs advanced production technology + advanced agricultural products. And when the agricultural technology services to become the standard of agricultural channels, Xu Guilong that the contents of the competition will be upgraded to the scope of services, as well as the length of service time.

For the new business entities across the middle channel business this problem, Chen Hu said that as a manufacturer, do not want to benefit for a moment and over the local dealers, unless the dealer’s operating capacity is indeed a problem, will take the initiative to dock large households. We hope that relying on dealers docking downstream market, through planning activities together to jointly develop the market. For enterprises how to break the market, Chen Hu believes that to continue “innovative marketing model, upgrade product category, enhance technology, improve service capabilities.”

In addition, for the flicker group and logo does not regulate the impact of small manufacturers, Chen Hu said that with the land transfer and custody business development, the future of the land will be more professional and young. This is absolutely positive for the development of formal enterprises and channels. Wang Yanmin said that the off-season, many companies will be free to teach farmers how to distinguish between true and false fertilizer. While calling on the Government to continue to increase crackdown efforts, so that the flicker groups and illegal enterprises nowhere to hide.

“Although this year I think the market is the most difficult to do a year, but I think the blacksmith also need their own hard! Many aspects of the bit, and get the market is not a big problem.” Chen Hu told reporters.

2017 “the Belt and Road Initiatives” International Cooperation Summit Forum will be held May 14, 2017 – May 15 held in Beijing. Another international conference will be held in Beijing, environmental protection storm has become the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei production enterprises of the public criticism. In the near future two sessions, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region’s production enterprises to take a “one size fits all” measures to shut down, which there are accidental injury situation, the pesticide industry has been a huge impact. And immediately come to the area along the way, but also what measures?

Beijing prohibits the transport of dangerous chemicals

In order to meet the high-profile international forum, in order to ensure the safety and smooth traffic of Beijing road, according to the “People’s Republic of China Road Traffic Safety Law,” the relevant provisions, decided from May 12, 2017 to 2017 May At 24:00 on the 17th, all day to prohibit the delivery of dangerous chemicals (including highly toxic chemicals) vehicles in the administrative area of ​​Beijing road driving.

Increase environmental inspection and inspection efforts

According to the Ministry of Environmental Protection website news, the Ministry of Environmental Protection on May 9 informed the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding areas to strengthen the investigation of air pollution control, 23 inspectors on the 8th supervision of 301 enterprises (units) and found that 236 enterprises Environmental problems, accounting for about 78.4% of the total inspection. Inspection team to inspect the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, can not be stable discharge standards, excessive emissions of enterprises will be discontinued, exceeding the top row of corporate emissions penalty.

Hebei province to carry out environmental enforcement focus on strengthening action

According to the Hebei Provincial Environmental Protection Department issued the news, Hebei Province, related enterprises to inspect (discontinued) for about 10 days. As follows: In order to cooperate with the province’s air quality attack on the action, to promote the provincial government “on the strong promotion of air pollution comprehensive management of the views” and 18 special programs to effectively implement the study decided to carry out in the province for 10 days Of the environmental law enforcement to strengthen the action, the relevant matters are informed as follows -

1, check the scope: Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Langfang, Baoding, Cangzhou, Hengshui, Xingtai, Handan and other eight air pollution transmission channel city and Dingzhou, Xinji City.

2, inspection methods and time: in May 8, 1717 – May 17 to provincial, city, county (city, district) linkage law enforcement, the provincial Environmental Protection Office set up enforcement inspection team, Hebei Province, air pollution control and supervision Work in the city inspection team, the city organization of the city and the county (city, district) law enforcement officers to take the investigation and dark investigation and daily inspection and occasional surprise checks combined to strengthen the focus of investigation, focus on investigating key environmental Illegal;

3, the main content: to increase the intensity of law enforcement, and severely punish the atmosphere of environmental violations, the city’s environmental protection departments to steel, coking, cement, glass, electricity, casting, perennial operation of coal-fired boilers and other elevated sources, emissions V0Cs key industries, “Business gathering area as the focus, strict investigation and punishment of excessive emissions, improper management facilities, online monitoring fraud and other environmental violations, in particular, to increase the discharge can not be stable, May 8 to 17 during the period will be suspended for rectification; On the 10th after the emergence of excessive emissions, all of which will immediately ordered to stop production remediation, and severely dealt with, the top grid punishment; for the standard hopeless, stealing row of industrial stalls and small workshops, scattered rural “industrial compound” To “two broken three clear” requirements; the majority of enterprises have not yet received a notice, on the further implementation of the situation, will follow up in a timely manner.

Overall, this “the Belt and Road Initiatives” Summit period, the measures of environmental protection measures compared to the two sessions, obviously a lot of reason. During the two sessions, the implementation of a unified stop production, limited production measures, in the production of Beijing and Tianjin in a number of environmental standards in accordance with the production of enterprises accidental injury phenomenon. The restrictions, the proposed increase is to increase supervision and supervision efforts, can be stable discharge standards of enterprises do not stop production behavior.

According to statistics, since the beginning of last year, titanium dioxide prices rose more than 76%. And as a leader in titanium dioxide dragon python Bai Li recently also on the price trend of the position, specifically:

Titanium dioxide price forecast: titanium dioxide prices rose more than 76%

May prices of titanium dioxide

From the end of 2015, by the raw material prices and environmental costs “double increase” the impact of the domestic titanium dioxide industry set off a wave of continued price increases. Today, the development of titanium dioxide industry was wind and water, the price rose again and again round, surging from the tide of rising prices in the achievements of titanium dioxide business, but also led to the downstream countless individuals struggling.

According to the reporter to understand, including the town of Jiangsu Titanium, Panzhihua City, Haifeng Xin Chemical Co., Ltd., Yunnan Metallurgical New Titanium and other enterprises almost at the same time announced price increases. From January to May this year, this is the fifth round of titanium dioxide prices, titanium dioxide prices since the beginning of last year has been the overall increase of more than 76%.

According to public statistics, 2016 ending price of 15,300 yuan / ton, while the beginning of the price of only 10,900 yuan / ton, the annual increase of up to 40.36%, up nearly 5,000 yuan per ton.

In early February this year, Chemours, the world’s largest company, announced that it has upgraded all grades of Ti-Pure Titanium from North America, Canada, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Europe, Middle East and Africa since March 1, 2017 White powder price. Among them, the Asia-Pacific region raised 150 US dollars / ton; North America and Canada raised 0.06 US dollars / lb; Latin America, Eastern Europe and other raised 200 US dollars / ton; Western Europe and Central Europe and other raised 200 euros / ton.

Subsequently, Huntsman (Huntsman) also announced that it raised its global sales of titanium dioxide (titanium dioxide) pigment prices. Among them, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America raised 235 euros / ton or 250 US dollars / ton, the Asia-Pacific raised 160 US dollars / ton, the price increase from April 1, 2017 from the entry into force; North America raised 0.07 US dollars / lb, Effective March 1, 2017.

With the foreign titanium dioxide giant Komu, Huntsman have to adjust the price of the product, which seems to indicate that the domestic price of titanium dioxide is about to enter a new round of price increases.

Titanium dioxide prices rise reasons

Why is the price of titanium dioxide so crazy? The so-called titanium dioxide known as titanium dioxide, is a dye and pigment (white powder). Titanium dioxide in industrial production is a more important raw materials, widely used in coatings, plastics, rubber, cosmetics, ceramics, electronics, medicine and other industries.

South China Institute of Intelligent Innovation Zeng Haiwei that the state supply side of the reform and environmental protection and other factors out of a group of small scale, low efficiency titanium dioxide production enterprises. Therefore, titanium dioxide enterprises will gradually return to the rational, healthy and orderly development of the state.

It is easy to see that titanium dioxide prices behind the market is the inevitable result of healthy development. According to the reporter learned that, as early as 2015, titanium dioxide prices continued to decline, many companies are hard to find good, and some enterprises can not withstand the decline in prices eventually out of the industry. Zhongyu information analyst Zhu Lin in the “China Sankei Shimbun” reporter said that only in 2015 year time, foreign shut down 400,000 of the production capacity, the domestic also withdrew nearly 300,000 of the production capacity, these removed Production capacity together a total of 700,000 to 800,000.

“In the environmental pressure, the domestic enterprises in the production has been in control of production capacity, which also led to the manufacturers of stock tight, which will cause prices continue to rise.” Zhu Lin believes that upstream and downstream supply and demand is also an important push up momentum. From the upstream, titanium dioxide raw material titanium prices continue to rise, from the beginning of 2016 520 yuan rose to 1850 yuan, up more than 2 times; from the downstream demand side, titanium dioxide is mainly used for paint, and Paint production in 2016 prices are steadily rising, the upstream supply plus the downstream demand together caused by 2016 titanium dioxide prices all the way up.

Data show that in 2016, titanium dioxide exports amounted to 720,500 tons, a substantial increase of 33.82% over 2015. January-February 2017, the domestic titanium dioxide exports reached 11.15 million tons, compared with the same period last year increased by 15.31%.

From the analysis of the industry can be clear, the upstream raw materials, downstream prices rose, exports continue to support the growth of titanium dioxide prices.

Insiders believe that the increasing cost of logistics costs, but also makes the cost of titanium dioxide enterprises to increase the pressure, therefore, manufacturers only through the way titanium dioxide price increases in order to maintain the status quo.

After the first trading day, Shanghai Rubber 1709 contract rose 3.5%, breaking the previous two weeks of consolidation trend, stand in 15,000 points in one fell swoop. And since then the macroeconomic downturn pressure, manufacturing PMI data is not ideal; financial regulatory trend, capital costs rise; international oil prices continued to fall and fundamentals and other factors together, Hujiao continued to fall, has fallen below 14000 mark.

Annual supply of large probability loose

Since the end of last year to the beginning of this year, Thailand suffered severe floods, tapping progress slowed down. According to statistics, January-February Thailand’s natural rubber production of 725,800 tons, down 13.9%, but the Thai government immediately to sell to the market to increase supply. From the transaction situation, the first round of throwing in January because the glue can not properly tapping, spot shortage and smooth turnover, but then several rounds to the end of the flow, which from the side shows the supply is not as good as imagined. The Thai government has said that by the end of May will be completed before the remaining 107,000 tons inventory auction, if the successful storage, then the market sentiment will cause further pressure.

According to ANRPC’s latest forecast, this year in addition to Indonesia, the main producing countries are expected to increase the main production, the annual supply of large probability loose. The recent Thai-producing areas gradually cut, the domestic production area will also be fully into the tapping period, the future supply side will gradually heavy volume.

Free trade in bonded areas increased

As of early May, Qingdao Bonded Area inventory totaled 249,800 tons, compared with mid-April increased by 29,700 tons, an increase of 13.49%. Since mid-February, bonded area stocks began to show a rapid upward trend, the cumulative cumulative rate of nearly 5 years since the fastest, and the growth rate did not slow down the trend. This is mainly the tire factory inventory at a high level, pre-demand is a lot of overdraft, the current new orders less, some factories began to take the initiative to reduce the operating rate, slow down the consumption of raw materials. And in November last year after the domestic natural rubber imports increased significantly in April this year, imports of natural rubber and synthetic rubber 58 million tons; January-April imports of 235 tons, up 30.3% over the same period last year. The current upstream and downstream industry chain stocks are at a high level, in a large number of imports and inventory consumption in the context of slow, is expected to continue to rise in the bonded area inventory.

Heavy truck sales are high or difficult to maintain

1 – April China’s heavy truck market to achieve sales of 387,000, an increase of 79.64%. This year, heavy truck sales soared for the following four reasons: First, since the fourth quarter of last year, the manufacturing industry to enter a new round of inventory cycle, coal and other commodities and upstream raw materials make up the logistics makes the demand for logistics and transportation, , Driven by heavy truck production and sales of rapid growth. Second, in August last year, the new national standard promulgated, significantly reduced the maximum load of the semi-trailer, which brought new capacity demand to stimulate heavy truck sales. Third, this year will become the infrastructure year, the provinces and cities in the fixed assets investment is expected to be more than 60 trillion yuan, and a large number of projects started at the beginning of the year, March and April are the peak of heavy truck sales. Fourth, last year, heavy truck sales surge makes some car prices difficult to complete orders on time, so part of the sales arrangements at the beginning of this year.

But heavy truck sales high growth or difficult to maintain. First of all, with the passage of time, last year’s rule of the New Deal brought about by the marginal effect will gradually weaken, in the relevant order gradually completed, follow-up logistics heavy truck is stable growth is still doubt. The second half of the beginning of the excess pressure will gradually appear, and since mid-January, China’s road logistics and freight index continued downward trend, while oil prices all the way up, has risen to 7,000 yuan / ton of the year high, heavy truck costs Overloaded freight will also drag some heavy truck sales. Finally, from the historical sales point of view, China’s heavy truck market sales over the years was “N” shape, March for the annual highs. April China’s heavy truck sales chain has been 10.2% decline in the second half if no new policy stimulus, sales will be more optimistic.

In short, in the absence of favorable subject matter to stimulate the case, Hujiao center of gravity will be further dropping.