According to preliminary statistics from China Customs, in July 2018, China exported 2.13 million tons of various mineral fertilizers and fertilizers (excluding ammonium chloride, potassium nitrate and organic and organic fertilizers), a year-on-year decrease of 19.3%; the export value was US$650 million, Reduced by 3.6%.

From January to July, China exported 11.712 million tons of mineral fertilizers and fertilizers, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%; the cumulative export value was 3.279 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%.

In terms of fertilizer imports, China imported a total of 540,000 tons of various fertilizers in July 2018, with an import value of US$171 million. As the new annual joint import of potash fertilizer has not reached an agreement, the import of potash fertilizer has decreased, and the total amount of various fertilizer imports in the month hit a new low in the year. From January to July, the cumulative import was 6.098 million tons, an increase of 16.7% over the same period of last year; the cumulative import value was 1.671 billion US dollars, an increase of 26.1%.

According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, in the first seven months, China imported 621 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 0.7%. The average import price was 446.4 yuan per ton, down 11.1%; crude oil was 261 million tons, an increase of 5.6%, and the average import price was 3219.9 yuan per ton, up 23%; coal 175 million tons, an increase of 15%, the average import price was 564.4 yuan per ton, down 3.4%; natural gas 49.43 million tons, an increase of 34.3%, the average import price rose 13.3%.

On August 6, the PX Commodity Index was 66.40, which was the same as yesterday. It was down by 35.16% from the highest point of 102.40 points (2013-02-28) in the cycle, which was 45.77% higher than the lowest point of 45.55 on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the domestic market price of para-xylene remained at 8,300 yuan/ton, the on-site installation of Pengzhou Petrochemical was overhauled, and the Urumqi petrochemical plant was started at 50%. The Tenglong aromatics plant has been in operation, other devices are temporarily operating stably, and the domestic paraxylene market is normal. The operating rate of PX devices in Asia is less than 70%. On August 6, the closing price of the paraxylene market in Asia increased by US$9/ton, and the closing price was 1108.5-1110.5 USD/ton FOB Korea and 1127.5-1129.5 USD/ton CFR China, USA WTI crude September futures closed up $0.52, or 0.76%, on Monday (August 6), at $69.01 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures closed up $0.54, or 0.74%, at $73.75 a barrel on Friday. The downstream PTA market was affected by the delay in resumption of production due to equipment maintenance. The PTA supply was slightly tight or continued. By the end of the 6th, the domestic PTA operating rate was around 73%, the PTA price continued to rise, and the average price in East China was 7300 yuan/ton. From the near mention, coupled with the downstream production and sales maintained relatively high level of smooth operation, PTA is still in a balanced state of small de-stocking, it is expected that the PX market price will be slightly higher in the later period.

First, the price trend:

According to data from business companies, the price of ortho-benzene increased sharply on August 6. The price of o-xylene on August 6 was 7,753.50 yuan/ton, which was 500 yuan/ton higher than the price of o-xylene (OX) on the previous trading day on August 3, which was 7063%/ton, up 26.57% year-on-year.

Second, the market analysis:

Product:

In August, the inventory of phthalic acid in East China Port remained at a low level. On August 6, the inventory of Huadong Port was around 30,000 tons. The price of phthalate external disk continued to rise. On August 3, the European market for o-xylene market was quoted at US$980.00/ton FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp. The price of phthalene was up by US$10/ton compared with the previous trading day. The offer rose by $52/ton. The price of phthalate external disk rose sharply, the cost of imported ortho-benzene increased, the price of imported ortho-benzene increased, and the price of benzene in the port area increased significantly. The price of benzene in the port soared, prompting the domestic price of o-xylene to rise, and the growth of benzene was full.

Industry chain:

Mixed xylene prices rose last week, and the cost of o-xylene increased. On August 3, the price of mixed xylene was 6,539.23 yuan / ton, which was priced at 6,396.15 yuan / ton from the beginning of the week (July 30). The price rose by 2.24%. The price of mixed xylenes has risen, and the cost of o-xylene has risen, which has contributed to the rise in the market for ortho-benzene.

Third, the market outlook:

The data analysis of the neighboring xylene data analysts of the business community believes that the price of the adjacent benzene external disk has risen sharply, and the price of the neighboring benzene in the port has risen sharply, which has promoted the rise of the domestic benzene market. The price of mixed xylene in domestic benzene raw materials has risen, and the cost of o-benzene is still high, which is good for the benzene market. The port’s benzene stocks are at a low level, and the market’s soaring voice is highlighted. Influenced by the changes in the RMB exchange rate and the trade war, the quotation of the phthalonitrile external disk is unlikely to decline in the short term, and the neighboring benzene is better than the benzene. The benzene growth in the market is full of momentum. It is expected that the rise of phthalene in the market may increase.

Macro: The US non-agricultural employment population increased by 157,000 in July, refreshing the new low since March 2018, but the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, and the salary increase remained unchanged. The US dollar index fluctuated strongly and the commodity sector showed differentiation. March copper futures on the London Metal Exchange closed up 0.61% to $6176.5/ton; March aluminum futures closed down 0.49% at $2027.5/ton. On the domestic front, the central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward sales from 0 to 20%, and the RMB strengthened against the US dollar. In addition, ICBC issued documents to branches in the near future, explicitly requiring more infrastructure, shantytown and other projects. Reserves, the demand side should not be excessively pessimistic. Shanghai copper 1809 closed up 0.63% to 49,520 yuan / ton; Shanghai aluminum 1809 closed up 0.10%, reported 14405 yuan / ton.

The fundamentals are divided into varieties: short-term upstream copper strikes have formed a favorable support for copper prices, superimposed on the domestic spot end, a slight increase in the fundamentals. The technical surface, the short-term copper price is supported in the vicinity of 49,000, and the probability of shock recovery is expected to increase. Big.

News: The Shandong government issued a company with exceptionally good environmental behavior to avoid the implementation of peak production. The impact of environmental protection and limited production on electrolytic aluminum production capacity is smaller than expected. In addition, the traditional off-season has a certain drag on aluminum prices, and the bullish factors mainly come from the market. For the second half of the year, the demand side will be strong, and the aluminum price should not be bearish. It is expected that the probability of shock is stronger.