First, the price trend

The propane market price has been continuously lowered this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propane market was 5,629.89 yuan / ton, the average price of weekends was 5,494.44 yuan / ton, the weekly decline was 2.34%, and the price was 12.63% higher than the same period of last year.

Second, the analysis of influencing factors

Product: The domestic propane market price continued to decrease this week. The overall trading atmosphere was weak. As of October 19, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical propane is not quoted, Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. propane is not quoted. The ex-factory price of propane in the supply and marketing company of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group is 5,850 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of propane in Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 5,550 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of propane in Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical is 5,600 yuan/ton. Propane of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. The ex-factory price is 5,550 yuan / ton, Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group propane ex-factory price is 5,550 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price of propane of Sinopec Qingdao Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. is 5,500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: The price of domestic LPG market was weaker this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic LPG market was 5,000 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price was 4,860.62 yuan/ton. The weekly decline was 2.69%, and the price increased by 9.85% compared with the same period of last year. This week, the domestic propylene market first stabilized and fell. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic propylene market price was 10,192 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price was 9,873 yuan/ton. The weekly decline was 3.13%, and the price rose 21.66% over the same period of last year. October Saudi CP: Propane $ 655 / ton rose 55 from last month; butane 655 / ton rose 20 from last month. The spot is equivalent to the cost of propane 5219, butane 5217.

This week, the domestic propane market was exhausted and continued to decline. The liquefied gas market has fallen sharply, driving the propane market to follow suit. The increase in the amount of imported resources has led to ample domestic supply, and the downstream is dominated by a wait-and-see attitude. International crude oil and international current position both fell, the enthusiasm for downstream purchases was not high, and the market mentality continued to be sluggish. With the decline in prices, the low-cost volume has slightly improved, and the downstream just needs to replenish. However, the overall atmosphere of the market is still not ideal, and manufacturers’ inventory and sales pressures are still there.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business companies, in the 42nd week of 2018 (10.15-10.19), the commodity prices rose by 25 in the chemical sector, and the top 3 commodities were acrylic acid (4.61%) and sulfuric acid ( 3.83%), phthalic anhydride (East China) (3.49%). There were 24 kinds of commodities with a decrease in the chain, and 3 products with a drop of more than 5%, accounting for 4.2% of the monitored products in the sector; the top 3 products were acetone (-6.63%) and polysilicon (-5.56%). , styrene (-5.35%). This week’s average price increase was -0.18%.

Third, the market outlook

Propane analysts of the business community believe that: the current refinery shipments of poor stocks rose to a high level, coupled with the weak operation of international crude oil, bad market mentality. As the end of the month approached, CP’s expected downward revision in November also had some constraints on the market. However, the cost of imports is still high, and there is not much room for manufacturers to fall. It is expected that the market will stop falling and stabilize.

On October 11, the price of metallic cobalt in the domestic non-ferrous metal spot market fell. The average price of cobalt was 47,7125.00 yuan/ton, which was down by 5,750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.19% and a year-on-year increase of 10.04%.

On October 11, the price of metal cobalt in major domestic manufacturers was temporarily stabilized. The average price of cobalt ex-factory was 52,5000.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.

On October 10th, the cobalt commodity index was 173.70, which was the same as yesterday. It was 27.29% lower than the highest point of 238.91 points (2018-04-15) in the cycle, which was 148.71% higher than the lowest point of 69.84 on July 5, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

On October 11, the domestic price of cobalt was down, and the price of cobalt powder in Shanghai was temporarily stabilized, and the actual transaction price fell. On October 11, the domestic cobalt price of Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center was 474,000-494,000 yuan/ton, the price of cobalt price fell by 2,000 yuan/ton, and the stock of October 11 was 433.75 tons. The supply of cobalt is at a high level. In terms of demand, the cobalt market has a certain transaction, but it is still on demand. The high supply growth and low demand growth have led to the weakening of cobalt prices. The downside risks remain. The stock market new energy sector and the technology sector have recently owed their performance. Jia, the prospects for new energy battery demand are bearish, and the demand for cobalt is bad.

In view of the market outlook, a small amount of transactions in the cobalt market, cobalt prices rose in general, and because the cobalt supply and demand did not change significantly, the cobalt price is difficult to maintain, the Congo gold imposes tariffs on the cobalt mine, the cobalt mine import cost is at a high level, and the cobalt price has limited space. The domestic cobalt price still has a downside risk. In September, the new energy auto industry performed poorly. The cobalt market demand was lower than expected, which caused a big negative for the cobalt price. It is expected that the cobalt price will be stable after a small decline.

First, the price trend

According to business data monitoring, zinc prices fluctuated this week. As of September 21, the average price of zinc ingots was 22690.00 yuan / ton, compared with the price of zinc 21672.50 yuan / ton last weekend, the price rose by 1062.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.91%; compared with the price of 21,492.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, the price rose by 1197.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.57%, down 12.97% year-on-year. The performance of the zinc market picked up this week, and the price of zinc fluctuated.

Second, the market trend analysis

Product aspects:

On September 21, the LME market in London closed at a price of US$2,468/ton, which was a price of US$2,313/ton from the beginning of September (September 17). The price rose by US$155/ton, and the price of zinc rose sharply. On September 21, Shanghai futures market futures zinc closing price was 22,415 yuan / ton, compared with the opening price of 21,480 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, the price rose 935 yuan / ton. Futures zinc prices rose sharply, and the zinc market rose. This week, the inventory of zinc ingot warehouse receipts in Shanghai futures market fell. On September 21, the inventory of zinc ingot warehouse receipts was 5,581 tons, which was 6635 tons lower than the inventory receipts at the beginning of this week. The inventory decreased by 1255 tons. The zinc market transaction was warmer and had a positive impact on the zinc ingot market. .

Data statistics

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Monday, China’s zinc production in August fell to a low since October 2012. Due to weak profits and environmental protection measures, zinc production in August decreased by 7.9% from the same period of the previous year to 431,000 tons. . The cumulative output in the first eight months was 3.7 million tons, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year. The supply of zinc in August decreased, which had a positive impact on the rise in zinc prices.

Global zinc market demand

A report released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on Tuesday showed that the global zinc supply gap widened to 32,500 tons in July. From January to July 2018, the global zinc market was short of 42,000 tons, compared with a shortage of 253,000 tons in the same period last year.

According to a report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on Wednesday, the global zinc market supply shortage was 351,000 tons from January to July 2018, and the supply shortage was 448,000 tons in 2017. From January to July, the inventory increased by 26,000 tons, and the Shanghai stock increased by 21,000 tons.

The data of the International Lead and Zinc Research Group and the World Bureau of Metal Statistics show that there is still a small shortage in the international zinc market in 2018, but the shortfall is significantly lower than the previous year’s gap, and the supply shortage has been alleviated, and the zinc supply and demand relationship has been greatly improved.

Macroeconomics

Recently, the approval of projects such as UHV and rail transit in many places has been reopened, and a large number of infrastructure projects have started construction intensively, and supporting policies have also entered the stage of intensive introduction. The increase in the construction of infrastructure projects will definitely drive the sharp increase in demand for zinc ingots. The demand for zinc in the market will increase, and the domestic zinc market is promising.

International policy

The Trump administration said on Monday that it would impose tariffs on about 200 billion US dollars of Chinese goods, and the tariffs will come into effect on September 24. As one of the measures to pressure China to change its business practices, the Sino-US trade war has escalated. The deterioration of the macroeconomic environment has created a negative impact on the non-ferrous metals market, and the zinc market has a downside risk.

Third, the outlook outlook

Bai Jiaxin, a business analyst, believes that the United States imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, and the Sino-US trade war has escalated, which has adversely affected the international macroeconomic environment and affected the rise of the zinc market. However, China has recently approved a number of infrastructure projects, infrastructure. The large-scale start-up of the project has alleviated the deterioration of the international economy, driving demand for non-ferrous metals to rise, and the zinc market is bullish. It can be seen from the international statistics that the supply gap in the zinc market has been alleviated in 2018, supply and demand have been basically stable, and the zinc price has increased in general. The zinc price in the market is affected by demand. It is expected that the zinc price in the market will rise slightly.

First, the price trend

According to the data of the business community, the market price of acrylic acid tends to be stable this week, and the downstream purchases are more on-demand. The market is stable in trading and the concentration of goods is high. The mainstream price of the primary market is about 9000-9200 yuan/ton. Single business space is limited.

Second, the market analysis

Product: Jinan Century Tongda Chemical Co., Ltd. has a stable price of acrylic acid. Pu acid 8300 yuan / ton, refined acid 9300 yuan / ton; Nantong Runfeng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. acrylic acid prices are stable. Pu acid 8600 yuan / ton, refined acid 9100 yuan / ton. The specific transaction price, the actual single talk. Recently, the price of acrylic raw materials has remained stable, and the market is mainly based on digesting inventories.

Industry chain: Domestic propylene (East China) prices rose linearly this week, hitting a new high in the year, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was good. At present, the mainstream market turnover is 9550-9650 yuan / ton. The overall upstream and downstream stocks are low, close to the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the downstream stocking sentiment is high, and the market demand is still strong.

Third, the market outlook

Acrylic analysts in the business community believe that the domestic acrylic acid supply is stable, the downstream maintains inventory purchases, and the price stabilizes. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will stabilize in the short term.

International oil prices have turned from rising to falling. Cloth oil is currently down nearly 0.3% to $77.88. WTI crude oil is currently down 0.55% to $68.39. Earlier, according to the Russian Tass news agency, Russian Energy Minister Novak said that the OPEC+ meeting may discuss oil production increased by 1 million barrels per day.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that at the upcoming Algiers meeting, OPEC+ may discuss options to increase oil production by more than 1 million barrels per day.

Novak said: “I think we have the opportunity to discuss any situation of the situation, we need to consider the situation and the most convenient action.”

He said that in August, our implementation rate of production cuts was 108%. In other words, we have not even fully resumed production. We will discuss this situation and see what happens in the fourth quarter of demand and projected supply, taking into account the actions of the OPEC+ countries and the countries that are not part of the agreement. ”

According to the Tass news agency, 16 countries have been invited to participate in the OPEC+ ministerial meeting held in Algiers on September 23.

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said in an interview in Dubai on Sunday that a historic crude oil supply agreement between Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil-producing countries at the end of 2016 is necessary to become a permanent agreement. He said that although crude oil consumption “begins to face some unfavorable factors”, crude oil demand is “strong.” Barkindo did not elaborate on these disadvantages.

Wall Street has previously mentioned that OPEC’s latest monthly report pointed out that the global oil supply will remain stable until 2019, but global crude oil demand growth may slow down.

OPEC pointed out that the trade situation is tense, the central bank tightening monetary policy and the financial problems of some emerging market countries “have challenged the current global economic growth trend.” “Monitoring the uncertainty of monetary and financial markets is crucial.”