Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of zinc fell first and then rose after the shock adjustment in February. As of Feb. 28, the price of zinc ingot was 22006.67 yuan/ton, down 523.33 yuan/ton, or 2.32 percent, from 22530.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In February, the price of zinc fell first and then rose. Zinc market struggled and adjusted concussively.

II. Market Trend Analysis

In terms of products:

In February, the price of zinc ingot in LME market was adjusted by price fluctuation. As of February 28, the closing price of zinc in LME market in London was 2750 US dollars/ton, which was 26 US dollars/ton higher than the opening price of zinc in early February. The price fluctuation adjustment of zinc price resulted in a slight increase in spot zinc price. In February, the stock of zinc futures in LME market in London dropped sharply. As of February 27, the stock of zinc futures was 67 825 tons, which was 113200 tons higher than that in early February. Inventory has fallen sharply, which is good for zinc market.

On February 28, the closing price of zinc futures in Shanghai futures market was 21885 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton from the opening price of 22325 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and in February, the price of zinc futures fell sharply, which had a negative impact on the spot zinc market. In February, the zinc futures inventory in Shanghai futures market increased sharply, and as of February 28, the zinc futures inventory increased sharply, resulting in a negative impact on the zinc market.

data statistics

According to data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG), the global zinc supply shortage was 384,000 tons in 2018 and 442,000 tons in 2017. According to a report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global supply of zinc in 2018 was in excess of 48.5 million tons, while the supply shortage in 2017 was 438,000 tons. Overall, the supply of zinc increased in 2018, and the supply of zinc gradually changed from short supply to over demand. The growth of zinc supply has a negative impact on zinc city.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, a business analyst, believes that after the Spring Festival of 2019, the supply of zinc in China has been concentrated and the stock of zinc ingots in futures market has soared, which has a big negative impact on zinc market. On the demand side, with the recovery of enterprises and the gradual start of infrastructure projects after the festival, the demand for zinc ingots has gradually warmed up, but the demand for zinc ingots has obviously not kept pace with the increase in supply, and the zinc ingot Market is bright and bright. Obviously, in the global zinc market in 2018, there will be a shortage of supply to excess supply. In 2019, the supply of zinc will remain high, but the macroeconomic weakness, the demand of zinc market has not improved significantly. In the future, the excess supply of zinc market may increase, the pressure of zinc price decline will increase, and the adjustment of zinc price fluctuation in the future market may be greater. In the long run, the global economy will rebound slightly but not optimistically in 2019. The macroeconomic benefits of zinc market are limited. The rebound of zinc market is insufficient. The space for zinc price to rise is limited. There is still room for zinc price to rise in March. However, the price of zinc ingots will rise or remain low. The price of zinc ingots may be adjusted by shocks between 2000 and 23000.

According to AzerNews, Kazakhstan’s Trend News Agency reported through Kazakh media that Kazakhstan’s energy minister, Kanat Bozbayev, recently banned the import of gasoline from Russia by rail for three months.

Earlier, at an extended meeting of the Senate Committee on Economic Policy, Kazakhstan’s Deputy energy minister, Polat Aksurakov, said: “Our policy is to build strategic reserves first. Today, we are trying to reach the level of at least 300,000 tons of 92-octane gasoline. Because we can’t export anywhere, our gasoline production is excessive, and there are more than 350,000 tons of gasoline in the tank.

It is noteworthy that Kazakhstan’s gasoline production in January 2019 was 378,900 tons, a sharp increase of 30.9% over January 2018.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the cobalt price after the festival continued the downward trend in the earlier period. As of February 22, the quotation of cobalt market was 301666.66 yuan/ton, down 23333.34 yuan/ton from February 1, 2003 to February 1, 325000.00 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan/ton from the beginning of this week, down 7.18% from February, when the price of cobalt continued to be depressed and the price of cobalt fell sharply.

II. Market Analysis

Trend analysis

According to the economic operation of China’s automobile industry published by China Automobile Industry Association in January 2019, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 91,000 vehicles and 96,000 vehicles in January respectively, up 113% and 138% respectively from the same period last year. New energy vehicles kept increasing at a high speed, and the demand for cobalt was basically guaranteed. Statistics show that cobalt production in Democratic Congo increased by 43.8% to 106,400 tons in 2018. In 2019, the international cobalt mining volume maintained growth, the supply of cobalt ore increased, and the market was in a state of oversupply.

International Cobalt Price

On February 22, MB low-grade cobalt quoted $15.75-17.5 per pound, and high-grade cobalt quoted $15.6-16.8 per pound. The quotation fell sharply. International cobalt prices have fallen sharply, which is negative for domestic cobalt market.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

To sum up, Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business associations, believes that cobalt prices have fallen sharply after the festival, but there is limited space for the fall of cobalt prices, and the future cobalt prices may remain stable. The long-term bottom range of cobalt price is between 20 and 300,000 yuan/ton. Now the market cobalt price has fallen below 300,000 yuan/ton, and the space for reduction of cobalt price is limited. In 2019, cobalt mining continued to expand and cobalt supply grew rapidly. However, in terms of demand, Smartphone Production and sales declined, while new energy vehicles increased, but it was difficult to offset the decline of smartphones. The current situation of cobalt supply over demand remained unchanged, which made a negative impact on cobalt prices. But at the same time, there are still positive factors in the cobalt market, which may lead to a sharp rise in cobalt prices again. In the smartphone field, the promotion of 5G technology and the renewal of mobile phones may increase, which will lead to the recovery of cobalt demand and the rise of cobalt price. With the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, the increase of cobalt demand for new energy vehicles is bound to exceed the impact of mobile phones on the reduction of cobalt demand in the future. The political situation in Congo is uncertain, which poses risks to the supply of cobalt. The tax policy of Congo leads to the increase of the cost of miners. Miners play with the Congo government by reducing output. The overall international situation is changing and the trend of cobalt price is difficult to determine. Generally speaking, the decline rate of cobalt price in the future market is bound to slow down. At this stage, it is a stage of market game. It is difficult to determine whether the price will rise or fall, but the falling space is limited. It is difficult for cobalt price to fall below the psychological level of 250,000 yuan/ton. At the same time, the rising power of cobalt market is not sufficient. 350,000 yuan/ton is a high level that cobalt price can hardly touch at this stage.

grade 

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of February 25, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 14625 yuan/ton, and the overall market continued to explore.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregate MDI market continues to explore. North China and East China Wanhua negotiated 13500-13800 yuan/ton, Shanghai negotiated 13300-13500 yuan/ton, South China Wanhua negotiated 13600 yuan/ton and Shanghai negotiated 13400-13600 yuan/ton. The market learns that Cosco’s latest ex-factory execution is 13400 yuan/ton, the ring ratio is increased, the cost support is strengthened, and the market spot is limited, the business is reluctant to sell and bullish, Wanhua listing is about to be launched, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, in the short term, the aggregated MDI market continues to move up, focusing on the guidance of enterprise volume and price news.

On the market side, North China Polymerization MDI market offer is firm. Wanhua listing will be launched soon, the market is more wait-and-see atmosphere, but due to less spot market, middleman offer remains firm, terminal follow-up shortage, market follow-up is mainly small orders. East China Poly MDI market offer is firm. The new moon listing of the main enterprises is coming soon. The operators are bullish on the future market, but the terminal follow-up is limited and the market follow-up is insufficient. South China Polymeric MDI market offers are scarce. Spot market is scarce, middlemen are reluctant to sell at low prices, downstream just need to follow up limited, market orders are difficult to release.

Industry chain: In terms of raw materials, East China aniline Market has been reorganized and operated. Sinopec’s pure benzene listing has been raised, and its cost support has been enhanced. However, downstream purchasing is just in need. Actual promotion is limited, and stable shipment is the main factor.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: On the positive side, fewer enterprises supply in February, the industry sells at low prices; individual enterprises plan to strictly control the amount of goods outside; in February, the main enterprises listed up, cost support strengthened. On the short side, there are many stockpiles in the downstream in the early stage, and the purchasing is limited; the downstream just needs to recover slowly. Analysts of business associations aggregate MDI expect that in the short term aggregate MDI market interval consolidation is the main.

The Technoinvest Coalition has again postponed the start of mining and processing projects on the basis of Russia’s largest rare earth metal deposit (Zashikhinskoye), this time to the end of 2023.

These provisions have been postponed since 2014.

It was planned to start construction in 2016 with an annual output of 1 million tons of iron ore, and be completed in 2018.

The construction of these projects will help to meet Russia’s 100% demand for tantalum raw materials and a considerable portion of niobium.

The reserves of Zashikhinskoye deposit in Irkutsk area are estimated to be 33.5 million tons, with high Nb and Ta contents.