Price Trend
According to the monitoring data of business associations, the cobalt price after the festival continued the downward trend in the earlier period. As of February 22, the quotation of cobalt market was 301666.66 yuan/ton, down 23333.34 yuan/ton from February 1, 2003 to February 1, 325000.00 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan/ton from the beginning of this week, down 7.18% from February, when the price of cobalt continued to be depressed and the price of cobalt fell sharply.
II. Market Analysis
Trend analysis
According to the economic operation of China’s automobile industry published by China Automobile Industry Association in January 2019, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 91,000 vehicles and 96,000 vehicles in January respectively, up 113% and 138% respectively from the same period last year. New energy vehicles kept increasing at a high speed, and the demand for cobalt was basically guaranteed. Statistics show that cobalt production in Democratic Congo increased by 43.8% to 106,400 tons in 2018. In 2019, the international cobalt mining volume maintained growth, the supply of cobalt ore increased, and the market was in a state of oversupply.
International Cobalt Price
On February 22, MB low-grade cobalt quoted $15.75-17.5 per pound, and high-grade cobalt quoted $15.6-16.8 per pound. The quotation fell sharply. International cobalt prices have fallen sharply, which is negative for domestic cobalt market.
3. Prospects for the Future Market
To sum up, Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business associations, believes that cobalt prices have fallen sharply after the festival, but there is limited space for the fall of cobalt prices, and the future cobalt prices may remain stable. The long-term bottom range of cobalt price is between 20 and 300,000 yuan/ton. Now the market cobalt price has fallen below 300,000 yuan/ton, and the space for reduction of cobalt price is limited. In 2019, cobalt mining continued to expand and cobalt supply grew rapidly. However, in terms of demand, Smartphone Production and sales declined, while new energy vehicles increased, but it was difficult to offset the decline of smartphones. The current situation of cobalt supply over demand remained unchanged, which made a negative impact on cobalt prices. But at the same time, there are still positive factors in the cobalt market, which may lead to a sharp rise in cobalt prices again. In the smartphone field, the promotion of 5G technology and the renewal of mobile phones may increase, which will lead to the recovery of cobalt demand and the rise of cobalt price. With the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, the increase of cobalt demand for new energy vehicles is bound to exceed the impact of mobile phones on the reduction of cobalt demand in the future. The political situation in Congo is uncertain, which poses risks to the supply of cobalt. The tax policy of Congo leads to the increase of the cost of miners. Miners play with the Congo government by reducing output. The overall international situation is changing and the trend of cobalt price is difficult to determine. Generally speaking, the decline rate of cobalt price in the future market is bound to slow down. At this stage, it is a stage of market game. It is difficult to determine whether the price will rise or fall, but the falling space is limited. It is difficult for cobalt price to fall below the psychological level of 250,000 yuan/ton. At the same time, the rising power of cobalt market is not sufficient. 350,000 yuan/ton is a high level that cobalt price can hardly touch at this stage.
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