Price Trend

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been tidied up slightly. As of August 15, the price of butadiene was 1,090 yuan/ton, up 18.85% annually and down 21.72% year-on-year, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The domestic butadiene market is slightly consolidated. Although the supplier price has not been significantly adjusted for the time being, some business offers are relatively strong, but the downstream inquiry intention is weak, and sporadic negotiations are mainly low-end. Fushun Petrochemical announced its export plan, together with a certain amount of other export manufacturers, the expected increase in market supply is obvious; however, the downstream rubber market is weak, some private enterprises parked, the supply and demand fundamentals weakened, and the business mentality is empty.

On the market side, the butadiene market in East China is mainly consolidated. Although the downstream inquiry intention is not high, there is no obvious supply pressure in the region for the time being. The middlemen mainly wait and see for stable prices. The delivery of high-quality products to the offer is maintained at 10600-10700 yuan/ton, and the actual single negotiation is low-end. The market atmosphere of butadiene in North China is weak, the downstream inquiry atmosphere is low, the news of rubber market and terminal demand market is empty, and the turnover of foreign manufacturers is not good, which brings drag on the mentality of the merchants. The price of high-grade products is about 1,015 yuan/ton, which is negotiated separately.

Installation: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 # long-term shutdown; 1 # and 2 # total 120,000 tons/year plant normal operation; Zhenhai refinery and chemical 165,000 tons/year plant normal operation, mutual supply is the main, a small amount of export; Liaotong Petrochemical 120,000 tons/year butadiene plant normal operation, bidding export trading range 9510-9518 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical 160,000 tons/year plant is in normal operation, and there is no export for the time being. The 100,000-ton/year oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Silbang, Jiangsu, stopped on July 29 and plans to restart.

3. Future Market Forecast

Although the short-term supply price of Sinopec is high, and domestic manufacturers have no obvious inventory pressure, the downstream trend of synthetic rubber is weak, and there is no lack of parking information for private enterprises, and the market supply and demand is weak. Fushun Petrochemical Restart Export, together with the rest of the northern manufacturers to maintain normal volume, the region is abundant in spot, business community butadiene analysts predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market is not lack of downward expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to the latest prices and turnover of manufacturers.

I. The price trend of epichlorohydrin:

The market for epichlorohydrin has fallen, according to a large number of data from business associations. As of August 13, the average price of epichlorohydrin was 14400.00 yuan/ton, down 17.56% compared with August 1.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Epichlorohydrin market fell. Mainstream manufacturers offer downward, market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, trading atmosphere is weak, real orders are limited, low-end offers increase under the pressure of shipment. At present, the mainstream price of epichlorohydrin in domestic market is around 14000-14900 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: Upstream propylene market in Shandong continued to rebound by the 13th. The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province maintained stable in early August, and began to fall continuously on the 5th day. It dropped 450-500 yuan/ton on the 8th day. The double weekend began to rise again. On the 13th day, the price of propylene enterprises rose again by 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the market turnover is about 7650-7750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7650 yuan/ton. The downstream epoxy resin loses cost support due to the decline of raw materials, and becomes weaker gradually. The high-end transaction is slightly difficult, and the actual single transaction is limited.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, on August 13, 2019, there were 11 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector. The top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (3.95%), dichloromethane (3.28%) and acetic anhydride (2.45%). There were 18 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines were epichlorohydrin (-10.65%), yellow phosphorus (-6.67%) and cyclohexanone (-2.48%). The average 13-day rise and fall was -0.18%.

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3. Future market forecast:

Analysts of business association epichlorohydrin think that the rising price of propylene in the upstream has some support for epichlorohydrin, but in the downstream manufacturers’buying-up and not-buying-down mentality, the lower the market is, the more unintentional it is to pick up goods, the more prudent it is to operate and purchase on demand, the terminal consumption is still weak. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by weak operation in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market trends.

On August 13, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 56.93, down 0.49 points from yesterday, down 52.61% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), up 17.58% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

In recent years, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has declined, the market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has slightly declined, downstream factories are still in need of purchasing, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions are blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbourhood source negotiation is 5600-5800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiation is 5200-5400 yuan/ton in the phthalic anhydride market in North China. Mainstream quotation is 5600-5700 yuan/ton, market price is slightly lower, quotation of enterprises slightly declines, downstream construction is not high, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is sufficient, phthalic anhydride price trend is declining.

In the near future, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 6000 yuan/ton. The import market of phthalic anhydride in the port area has fallen, the quotation is stable, the recent market of phthalic anhydride in the port is general, the port stock is low, the quotation of o-phthalic anhydride outside market has fallen concussively, the actual transaction price is based on negotiation, the factual details are discussed in detail, Market prices remain low and volatile.

Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride price is temporarily stable, isooctanol price is stable, DOP cost trend is stable. DOP prices remain temporarily stable, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks rise, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7350 yuan/ton, downstream price shocks, coupled with plasticizer industry in the off-season, downstream demand is not improving, phthalic anhydride market prices are expected to remain low later.

On August 12, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 12th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily because of the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene market in Asia is temporarily stable on August 9. The closing price is US$771-773/ton FOB Korea and US$790-792/ton CFR China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The low price of foreign units has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. Xylene price trend is stable for the time being.

On August 9, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to 54.50 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.96 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose to 58.53 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.15 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices rose, which provided some favorable support for downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of p-xylene market was temporarily stable. Recent textile industry market shocks, PTA price trend shocks 12 days, the average price in East China is around 5200-5300 yuan/ton, as of 9 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 92.5%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 85%, downstream production and sales rate has not changed much, but PTA market price trend shocks, it is expected that PX market prices will be later. Maintain shock.

I. Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business associations, cobalt prices have risen sharply this week and the market of cobalt has risen. As of August 9, the price of cobalt was 265,000.00 yuan/ton, up 14.06% from 2323,333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 45.17% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Canon announced the closure of Mutanda Cobalt Mine by the end of 2019

Mutanda is a large copper and cobalt mine in Congo. In 2018, Mutanda produced 190,000 tons of copper and 27,300 tons of cobalt, which accounted for 0.9% and 20.8% of the world’s supply, respectively. Mutanda’s cobalt output reached 134,000 tons in the first half of 2019, which was 13.6% year-on-year. Glencore announced the closure of the cobalt mine by the end of 2019, which is expected to last for two years.

International Cobalt Price Rising

From the price trend chart, it can be seen that the cobalt price in LME market rose sharply in August, and the cobalt market is good. The rise of cobalt price in the international market is good for the domestic cobalt market.

The impact of subsidies recession on sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations

Data show that BYD’s total sales of new energy vehicles this year are 160,000, up 73.17% year-on-year. Beiqi’s new energy sales totaled 78,000 vehicles this year, an increase of 28% over the same period last year. In July, BYD sold 17,000 vehicles, down 11.8% from a year earlier. Sales of Jianghuai New Energy Vehicles fell 66.5% to 1738 in July from a year earlier. Meanwhile, the China Automobile Industry Association has lowered its sales forecast for new energy vehicles this year, from 1.6 million to about 1.5 million. The performance of new energy vehicles is not as expected. The market of new energy vehicles in the future is weakening. The demand of cobalt market is expected to decline, and the driving force of cobalt market is declining.

The growth period of 5G mobile phone is undetermined

Since July, major manufacturers have released their own 5G mobile phones. We are officially entering the 5G era. Although major mobile phone manufacturers have rushed to release a number of 5G mobile phones, from the judgment of research institutions and analysts, consumers may not be able to use 5G mobile phones this year. Until 2020, 5G is unlikely to be widely used in mobile devices. It is estimated that the sales of 5G mobile phones will reach 65 million by 2020. It will take at least two years for 5G to be truly universal. Gartner expects global smartphone sales to fall by 2.5% in 2019, the biggest decline so far. It is very difficult for 5G products to break out in the short term, and there are still uncertainties about when they will break out and whether sales will meet expectations. Generally speaking, future demand is generally bullish, but when it will rise, it is difficult to determine the extent of the increase, and the future demand of cobalt market is full of uncertainty.

Future prospects:

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst with business associations, believes that the news of the shutdown of Jianeng Cobalt Mine will inevitably lead to a rise in cobalt prices, which are still bullish in the future, but the poor performance of new energy vehicles and the sharp decline in mobile phone sales have a negative impact on future cobalt Market demand. Overall, the negative pressure and positive momentum of cobalt market have been deadlocked for quite a long time. At the same time, because of the serious profit loss of cobalt mining enterprises, the pressure of cobalt price rise is greater. The market is bullish on the future market of new energy vehicles and 5G mobile phones. Although the cobalt price has risen sharply recently, the cobalt price is still in the low price range. The pressure of cobalt price falling is insufficient and the momentum of increase is greater. It is expected that the future cobalt market will rise steadily and slightly in a relatively long period of time.