Price Trend

According to the data from a large number of business associations, toluene prices in China showed a downward trend in May. In early May, the price of toluene was stable, and began to oscillate in the first half of the year. In the second half of May, the price of toluene continued to decline. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was the highest, 5412 yuan/ton; at the end of the month, it was the lowest, 5106 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 5.66%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Toluene market prices fell in the early period of this month, and continued to decline at the end of the month after the mid-term adjustment. At present, the mainstream turnover in the market is around 5080-5100 yuan/ton. The port stock in East China is about 514,000 tons, which is about 17,600 tons compared with 69,000 tons at the beginning of the month. Spring inspection of domestic toluene factories has been completed, parking devices have been started, and the market supply has increased. Some downstream units of toluene were put into operation in July, and it is expected that demand side will restrict the rise of toluene price in June.

2. Industry chain: In the upstream, the international oil price first stabilized and then fell in May. The OPEC production reduction and geographic situation were the main positive factors in the early and mid-term. The downward trend of the US stock market and the unexpected decline of the US crude oil inventory led to a sharp drop in the international oil price in the latter half of the year. On the downstream side, the price trend of domestic paraxylene market declined in May, with a monthly decline of about 2.61%. New PX devices were not started, and the enthusiasm of stockpiling was not high, which caused a certain blow to the market mentality, mainly just in need of purchasing, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. In May, the TDI market also showed a downward trend, with a monthly decline of about 25.67%. There was no volume drop, and the middlemen lacked the opportunity to ship. At the end of the month, the number of inquiries just increased, which is difficult to form a strong support for the industry at present. Demand is constrained by the rise in toluene Market prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of toluene in the branch of Business Society and Chemical Industry believe that overall, the holders are still optimistic about June because of the bullish support of crude oil and the driving of downstream PX devices. The market is mainly concerned about the driving of Sinochem Hongrun PX devices. However, at present, other major downstream purchasing intentions are general, the buying atmosphere is insufficient, stocks remain high, the market is in a stalemate stage, and toluene may fall first in June. Later up, but the range is small.

On May 29, the PX commodity index was 60.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.41% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 31.72% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 30th day. Pengzhou Petrochemical Unit operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Unit started 50% of the operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Unit started one line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Unit overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily. As the new units put into operation, the domestic market for p-xylene was normally supplied, p-bis. The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On May 29, the market price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 11 US dollars per ton. The closing price is 858-860 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 877-879 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The market price trend of p-xylene in Asia is temporarily stable.

On May 29, the price of WTI crude oil in July fell to 58.81 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.33 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil in July fell to 69.45 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.66 U.S. dollars. crude oil prices declined slightly, losing some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of paraxylene Market stabilized temporarily. Recently, the textile industry has been stabilizing, PTA price has slightly declined on the 30th day. The average price in East China is raised near 5600-5700 yuan/ton. As of the 29th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 83.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 86.5%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market price is slightly lower, and the price of PX market is expected to be slightly lower in the later period.

According to TIRANA on May 24, Shell’s upstream Albanian B.V. company said on Friday that preliminary tests showed that its Shpirag 4 well in central Albania could produce thousands of barrels a day and more work was needed to determine its commercial production.

“We are pleased that these preliminary tests confirm the potential of this discovery and look forward to expanding our business in Albania,” said Marc Gerrits, executive vice president of Shell’s exploration business.

The company added that well Shpirag 4 West of Bellat confirmed the flow potential of a large number of light oil discoveries.

Shell Albania said that under the same geological conditions as Italy’s large Val d’Agri and Tempa Rossa oilfields, more evaluations were needed to assess Shpirag’s commercial production.

The company plans to conduct extended production testing of well Shpirag 4 and more drilling to assess well Shpirag 3 and explore other wells to test its potential.

First, the price trend:

Second, the market analysis: Domestic market: This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene is more stable, as of Friday, Shandong region, the mainstream quotation range of the hydrogenation of the market in 4150-4200 yuan/ton, the same as last week, the East China hydrogenated benzene market mainstream quotation range of 4350-4450 yuan/ton, compared with last week cut 50 yuan/ton. This week, hydrocracking Enterprises began to gradually resume, Shandong region Enterprises basically resumed construction, only Shandong Holy Transport and Shandong Jade Emperor device parking, another Shandong Jin energy 100,000/ton device started in about 75%, the basic return to normal production, Hebei region most devices resumed driving.

The overall market supply is more normal, trading stability. Industrial chain: Crude oil: Oil prices overall high volatility this week, closing oil prices fell sharply in Thursday. Pure benzene aspect: The message surface is basically smooth, to the spot market cost support is strong, the market low price resources are difficult to find, the merchant’s willingness to price is strong. Although the port stock has been lower, but the overall range is not small, the market influence is low. Constant force start load will gradually improve, downstream plant inventory is high, the willingness to take goods is low, the overall atmosphere is light. Although domestic inventory has a small drop, but the overall stock volume is still at a high of 23.24 million tons. Crude benzene aspect: crude benzene market offer rose slightly this week in east China this week’s tender prices rose by about 10 yuan/ton, most manufacturers prices stable. Market supply, the recent coking enterprise construction rate, Shanxi Shaanxi is affected by environmental protection overall in about 70%, Shandong region slightly higher in about 80%, Hebei region by air quality impact slightly lower in 60%. As of Friday, Shandong region processing crude benzene quotation stable quotation range in 3250 yuan/ton, Shanxi region processing with crude benzene price stable in 3100-3150 yuan/ton.

Inner Mongolia area processing with crude benzene quotation stable quotation in 3000 yuan/ton.

Third, the trend forecast: Recently, Hydrocracking Enterprises have resumed construction, the field supply increased, but pure benzene port inventory is still increasing, manufacturers of high turnover blocked, the actual transaction is limited. It is expected that the market consolidation of hydrogenated benzene is the main.

The Ammonium Nitrate Commodity Index of May 22 was 103.51, the same as yesterday, down 12.59% from 118.42 at the highest point in the cycle (2019-01-15), up 33.79% from the lowest 77.37 point on October 31, 2016.

(Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to date). Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is stable, affected by environmental control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shutdown more, domestic ammonium nitrate device driving less, but recently with the warmer weather, the northern gas limit effect disappeared, coupled with the domestic downstream civil explosion industry all shut down, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers inventory more, the price trend in the field decline.

As of 23rd domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many areas of manufacturers are forced to production restrictions or cut off maintenance for environmental inspection, the field ammonium nitrate price trend temporarily stable. Recent domestic nitric acid price trend temporarily stable, as of 23rd market price of 1633.33 yuan/ton, nitric acid price trend rise for ammonium nitrate market to bring a certain positive impact, ammonium nitrate price trend is stable; upstream raw material liquid ammonia price trend decline, as of 23rd northern region manufacturers offer to maintain at 3000-3500 yuan/ Ton interval, Northwest Territories quoted in 2800-3000 Yuan/ton up and down, upstream raw material price trend decline for the ammonium nitrate market to bring a certain negative impact, nitrate market price trend temporarily stable. Recently downstream civil explosion industry peak season, for the ammonium nitrate market demand weakened, ammonium nitrate manufacturers inventory increased, but the liquid ammonia market is also rising trend, ammonium nitrate market due to bad market low shock. Business Society ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price to maintain a shock, but downstream demand is not good, expected late ammonium nitrate market price or maintain low shock.