1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency: on February 19, the weekly average price of domestic industrial purified water formic acid was 1950 yuan / ton. As of February 21, the weekly average price of domestic industrial barreled formic acid was 2100 yuan / ton, without any increase. This week, the formic acid market was relatively stable.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic industrial purified water grade 85% formic acid market overall showed a relatively stable trend. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation, many manufacturers are not in operation, and the current price has no change compared with the same period last year. In terms of equipment: the start-up manufacturer is basically working at home and will not deliver the goods after receiving the order. In terms of price: this week, the factory’s quotation is basically maintained around 1950 yuan / ton. At present, there is no quotation from mainstream dealers. Although some enterprises have started construction, transportation is still a big problem. As of Friday (February 21), industrial water purification: Jinzhou jinhongda Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 2100 / T; Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1800 yuan / T; industrial barrel: Jintan local supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. offers 2300 / T; Jinan senhong new Co., Ltd. 1900 / T.

Industrial chain: due to the impact of the epidemic situation, the liquid ammonia market has no increase. The downstream is mainly based on the construction conditions. The upstream products generally support the formic acid market, while the leather and pesticide industries of the downstream products have no obvious demand for the moment, and there is not much trading.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid data division of the business association, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole maintains a relatively stable trend, and enterprises generally remain stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the current offer of the mainstream manufacturers is around 6300-6400 yuan / ton, and that of the spot mainstream negotiation is around 6150-6300 yuan / ton. Market reference: the price of water bottle in East China market is 6150-6250 yuan; the price of water bottle in South China market is 6150-6300 yuan; the price of water bottle in North China market is 6200-6250 yuan.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: polyester bottle chip manufacturer’s quotation was slightly increased, downstream carefully watched, the overall market turnover was not fast, most of them maintained rigid demand, production and sales were flat, and a few large manufacturers asked for orders. There is no obvious improvement in the market, mainly light finishing. At present, there are only a limited number of manufacturers returning to work, basically returning to work in batches, with a relatively slow speed and a strong wait-and-see state

Industry chain: crude oil rose, PTA pressure rose slightly, to some extent, supporting the market trend, short-term or stalemate operation, but the demand side of the downturn.

On the supply side: the supply of raw materials in the site is tight, the market atmosphere is light under various factors, and the supply and demand are in a dilemma.

Industry: on February 21, pet commodity index was 46.99, up 0.19 points from yesterday, down 54.71% from 103.76 (2011-09-22), and up 0.79% from 46.62, the lowest point on February 17, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

Pet analysts believe that the market price is stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, the weak market of domestic methanol has a narrow upward trend. As of February 19, the average price of domestic methanol market is 1987 yuan / ton. Prices fell 12.15% month on month and 12.91% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the methanol production enterprises in the main production areas of Shaanxi and Mongolia are able to deliver goods temporarily, the traders are mainly responsible for receiving goods, some of them are connected with the bidding of the downstream enterprises, the transportation vehicles are in recovery, the downstream enterprises have no obvious changes in the construction, and some of them are mainly for replenishment. China US relations have been upgraded, and crude oil has been shaken at a low level. In the short term, the domestic methanol market price is mainly volatile.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: weak operation of domestic formaldehyde market. A small number of start-up enterprises offer stable temporarily, most enterprises have not yet started, the cost side is at a relatively low level, the downstream market starts in a low level, the demand is limited, and it is difficult to clinch a deal with a real order.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market is stable and weak. Part of the low-cost goods in the northwest hit the North China market. At present, it is free at high speed, and the delivery price is more advantageous than that of the local manufacturers in North China, thus opening the price range in North China market. Part of the lower reaches of the East China market were restarted, and the market demand stimulated low-cost competition among manufacturers, pushing the market transaction price down slightly. In South China market, the terminal demand is small and scattered, the market has not recovered, and the supplier is mainly providing stable offer temporarily. In the short term, the domestic acetic acid market demand gradually recovers, the automobile transportation aspect selectivity increases, each factory stock pressure is obvious, the passive competition shipment.

DME: the market of DME is weak and stable, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The mainstream price in Henan Province is 3020-3200 yuan / ton ex factory spot exchange, and the lower reaches are mostly purchased in small quantities according to demand, with general demand. In the aspect of civil gas, the price difference between gas and ether is narrowed, which supports DME.

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of business community: the delivery of methanol production enterprises in the northwest main production area is temporarily available; the number of vehicles is gradually increasing; the downstream construction changes are not significant temporarily. The methanol analysts of the business association predict that China’s methanol market may fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

On February 17, the PX commodity index was 50.40, the same as yesterday, down 50.78% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 10.65% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China is temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical is put into operation, other units are temporarily stable, and the operation rate of domestic p-xylene plant is stable About 70%, the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, but the recent crude oil price trend is volatile, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On February 17, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 6 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 727-729 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 747-749 US dollars / ton CFR China. More than 40% of PX in China needs to be imported. The rising price of external market has a certain positive impact on the market price of domestic Px, and the market price trend of PX is temporarily stable.

Brent crude oil futures rose to $57.67 a barrel, or $0.35 a barrel, after the New York Stock Exchange was closed for “President’s Day”. In its latest oil market report, the International Energy Agency revised its oil demand forecast substantially and predicted that consumption would actually shrink by 435000 barrels per day, the first significant year-on-year decline since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. Previously, the agency expected consumption to increase by 800000b / D over the same period last year. In the whole year of 2020, the International Energy Agency cut the growth rate of demand by 365 thousand barrels per day to 825 thousand barrels per day. This will be the lowest annual growth rate since 2011, slightly lower than the growth figure in 2019, and 2019 itself is a year of decline. The rise of crude oil price is good for domestic chemicals price, while the domestic p-xylene price trend is temporarily stable.

In terms of downstream PTA, the recent price has dropped slightly to the level of 4400-4500 yuan / ton. Affected by the sharp increase of production capacity, PTA’s price will be in a weak situation, and short processing fee is still the main operation idea. In the short term, PTA processing fee is at a very low level, while the upstream price is relatively resistant to decline due to the rise of crude oil, and the cost support appears. However, affected by the epidemic situation, the terminal weaving is basically in a state of stagnation. In the state of weak demand, PTA is difficult to form an effective rise. We think PTA is in a dilemma at present, or maintain the trend of low-level oscillation. Even with the support of cost, the price will rise by increasing the repair and processing fee, and the increase range is very limited. PTA market price will fall, and the trend of p-xylene price will be stable temporarily.

In recent years, crude oil price fluctuates, which has a certain negative impact on xylene market. In addition, there is no obvious improvement in downstream demand of the terminal. Business analysts believe that PX market price may remain low.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China continues to decline. As of February 17, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic method was 5750 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China continues to decline, the demand of plasticizer industry does not improve, and the market of phthalic anhydride is in a low state.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has continued to decline. Affected by the epidemic situation, the transportation of chemicals is limited. The inventory of some phthalic anhydride manufacturers has increased and the delivery situation is poor. In East China, the market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride has fallen, downstream factories have shut down a lot, factory inventory pressure has increased, and high-end transactions have been blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 5500-6000 yuan / ton and 5300-5600 yuan / ton respectively. In North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 5400-5800 yuan / ton. Most of the manufacturers in the site have price callback, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. The domestic phthalic anhydride plant starts normally, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient. In addition, under phthalic anhydride, the main flow of negotiation is 5400-5800 yuan / ton The demand for phthalic anhydride is not good, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride keeps falling.

In the near future, the execution price of phthalic anhydride upstream products in China on February 17 is 5800 yuan / ton. The import price of phthalic acid in the port area is slightly lower and the quotation is declining. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in the port is weak, the port inventory is increased, and the price of phthalic acid in the external market is lower. The actual transaction price is subject to the negotiation, and the detailed negotiation is made. The price of phthalic anhydride market is lower due to the decrease of upstream raw material phthalic acid price.

In the downstream, the price of DOP raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the cost of DOP raw material fell, DOP enterprises started work normally, the operating rate dropped, during the anti epidemic period, logistics was limited, transportation was difficult, DOP supply was normal, DOP manufacturers’ inventory was high. The price of DOP fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was poor, the price of downstream PVC fluctuated and remained stable, and the equipment of PVC enterprises started at a low level. The main quotation in DOP market is about 7100-7500 yuan / ton, and the price trend in the downstream is slightly down. In addition, the price of ox in the upstream is down. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a slightly down trend in the later period.