On June 19, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles, and the price trend in the field declines. As of the 19th, domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, up to 19 days, the market price is 1760 yuan/ton. The rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has slightly declined. As of 19 days, the price quoted by manufacturers in the northern region has maintained in the range of 3000-3400 yuan/ton, while that in the northwest region is around 290-3000 yuan/ton. The declining price trend of cruise raw materials has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the latter part of the shocks.

On June 18, the PX commodity index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 18th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily. Due to the normal supply of p-xylene in the domestic market when the new unit was put into operation, p-bis The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On June 17, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 13 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 786-788 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 805-807 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporary stable.

On June 17, the futures market of WTI crude oil in July fell to 51.93 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.58 U.S. dollars, and Brent crude oil in August fell to 60.94 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 1.07 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices declined, losing some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, while the price of paraxylene market stabilized temporarily. Recently, the textile industry has stabilized temporarily, PTA price has increased slightly on the 18th. The average price of East China is raised near 5650-5800 yuan/ton. As of the 17th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 88%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 88%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market price shocks, and the price of PX market is expected to be low in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of June 17, the price of propylene oxide has risen slightly. At present, the mainstream price of propylene oxide in China is 9100-9500 yuan/ton, up 0.72% compared with last Monday.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Propylene oxide market prices rose slightly. Last week, the propylene oxide Market refreshed to a new low in the year, and the downstream market opened to replenish warehouses at a low level. The factory’s periodic shipment improved, and the main factory’s inventory digestion. On the 17th, the cash delivery price of Wanhua Chemistry Shandong Mainstream Market was 9200 yuan/ton, while that of East China Mainstream Market was 9500 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The market price of upstream propylene in Shandong Province is generally stable. At present, the mainstream transaction in the market is still around 7300-7400 yuan/ton. Refineries still have no inventory pressure, and some propylene production enterprises have lower willingness to reduce prices due to equipment overhaul. The demand for polyether terminals is weak, and the new orders are not up to expectations.

3. Future market forecast:

The propylene oxide Market is expected to remain stable in the near future, according to the business association.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise this week. The average price of acetic acid in eastern China was about 2716 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and it rose to about 2883 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 6.13% in the week. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2550-2650/ton; in Shandong is about 2800-3000 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 2600-2650 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2280 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 2850-2950 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 3000-3100 yuan/ton; in South China, the quotation is about 2900-2950 yuan/ton, which is 47.65% lower than that in the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: The overall start-up rate of acetic acid Market in East China is still low, spot supply continues to be tight, some devices will be restarted soon, supply-side gap will be further narrowed, acetic acid prices will gradually stabilize within a week; enterprises in North and Central China start normal work, low inventory, driven by the rise in acetic acid prices in East China, followed by a rise in the week. In terms of start-up, the overall start-up rate of the industry recovered slightly last week, with an overall rate of about 68%. Huayi Group’s Shanghai plant is expected to resume next week; Soap in Jiangsu Province has completed the restart; Dalian Hengli 350,000 tons/year plant is currently operating 60% with a daily output of about 600 tons; Henan Longyu plans to overhaul at the end of June.

Industry chain: upstream, domestic methanol market shocks and stabilises this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2198 yuan/ton, which rose 0.64% in the weekend, and the price fell 22.33% compared with the same period last year. The terminal demand of acetate and vinyl acetate industries is low, procurement is not good, overall negotiations are limited, short-term stability is the main factor; PTA spot market is affected by high raw materials and part. Installation overhaul effect, slightly increased in the week, but trade in the industry is still weak.

International: This week, the acetic acid Market in North America gradually stabilized, currently around 415 U.S. dollars per ton; the Asian acetic acid market continued to rise in the week, but the overall downstream demand remained weak, with the current quotation of 360-410 U.S. dollars per ton; and the European acetic acid market stabilized and moderately weakened this week, currently at about 520 U.S. dollars per ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the shortage of spot supply in domestic acetic acid market is gradually compensated, and the production of acetic acid enterprises in eastern China is about to return to normal. Although the overall low stock level in the industry has some favorable support for the price of acetic acid, there is no obvious improvement in the downstream market demand and there is some resistance to the high price of acetic acid. The analysis of acetic acid data from business associations shows that the domestic acetic acid market will be stable and weak in the near future. 

According to the latest report released by Mjunction, an Indian industry research institute, India’s coal imports reached 20.72 million tons in April, up 13.4% from the same period last year.

According to Mjunction statistics, in April this year, India imported 352,000 tons of coke and 220,000 tons of coke. The import of non-coking coal was basically the same as before.

Industry insiders pointed out that India’s coal import trend in April was in line with expectations. At present, India’s coal-fired power plants have sufficient coal stocks, and coal import volume is expected to stabilize in the next few months.