Commodity index: on March 12, the polyaluminium chloride commodity index was 105.41, down 1.35 points from yesterday, down 3.30% from the highest point of 109.01 (2019-08-28), and up 4.47% from the lowest point of 100.90 on December 19, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Market: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), in March 2020, the proportion of poly aluminum chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) manufacturers returning to work continued to rise. The mainstream quotation in the domestic market: poly aluminum chloride solid (industrial level, content ≥ 28%) with tax quotation of about 1750-2200 yuan / ton, liquid (industrial level, content 10% – 12%) with tax quotation of about 390-450 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s delivery gradually recovered Reply. Enterprises with high inventory generally dump goods after the start of construction, and the quotation is slightly reduced, and most manufacturers’ quotation is relatively stable.

Upstream and downstream: after the Spring Festival holiday and delayed resumption of work, the price of hydrochloric acid in the domestic market is generally stable. In February, the price of hydrochloric acid market manufacturers was average, and the price in North China was about 243.33 yuan / ton temporarily. Due to the general market situation of upstream liquid chlorine and weak support of hydrochloric acid, downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane still mainly purchase hydrochloric acid according to early demand, and the pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is relatively large.

Downstream: according to the manufacturer, the water treatment project is still under construction, and the demand is still recovering. The polyaluminium manufacturer is under normal operation, but the current demand is not so much, and it will take time to recover.

Industry: in late July 2019, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires that: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production and treatment before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. The production was resumed for ten days in August and stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the shutdown was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection was strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi were required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production. During the Spring Festival holiday from January to February 20, 2020, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work one after another. At present, the logistics gradually recovered in March, and the transportation cost has returned to normal. Before the year, the inventory was still in consumption. Some enterprises with higher inventory had slightly lower prices.

Future forecast: the analysis of the business community shows that although the impact of the current epidemic has not been lifted, the resumption of work in various regions continues to improve, and the downstream demand for polyaluminium chloride will increase with the continuous improvement of the situation, and will wait for some time. The current supply of the manufacturer is sufficient, the return to work and production of the water treatment enterprises in Henan, the main production area, is in good condition, the initial inventory is high, the upstream cost is stable and the demand is general, the market situation of polyaluminium in the future will be temporarily stable, and the price concessions that the manufacturer will make to accelerate the inventory consumption will not be excluded.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

(Figure: epichlorohydrin product p value curve )

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market of epichlorohydrin has fallen again and again recently. The terminal demand is low, the production factory’s shipment is blocked, the inventory is under pressure, the manufacturer’s intention of low delivery is enhanced, the new single offer offers the profit for shipment actively, the negotiation center keeps falling, the downstream start-up load is low, the enthusiasm for market operation is not high, and the on-site wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. As of the 9th, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10500 yuan / ton, down 13.93% compared with March 1st and 25.88% compared with January 1st. At present, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market in China is about 9500 ~ 11000 yuan / ton.

On March 9, the epichlorohydrin commodity index was 74.15, down 6.59 points from yesterday, down 44.54% from 133.71 (2019-10-29), and up 58.27% from 46.85, the lowest point on September 7, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industrial chain: on March 9, the market price of propylene in Shandong Province remained stable. On September 9, the market turnover was still between 6600-6800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was between 6600-6650 yuan / ton. Now affected by OPEC meeting, international crude oil plummeted, and some chemical futures market also fell sharply. Now, due to the low production and inventory of propylene plant and the shortage of market supply, the propylene market is still stable on September 9. However, due to the impact of upstream and downstream, the propylene price is expected to decline, and the strength is not small. Downstream epoxy resin, double raw materials fell together, the cost support weakened, and the terminal demand is poor, the production enterprise shipment is not smooth, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and the actual single operation is limited.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business association, the downstream start-up load is low, the demand side is weak, and the market lacks the support of strong positive factors. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market will be weak and put into operation to release the inventory pressure.

On March 8, the fluorite commodity index was 110.33, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.46% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 124.20% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of fluorite in China has increased significantly. As of the 9th day, the average price of fluorite in China is 3366.67 yuan / ton. Recently, the operation rate of fluorite plant in China is relatively low, the part of mine and flotation plant in the site has not been started yet, and the supply of fluorite in the site is very tight. Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has increased slightly. For the purchase on demand in fluorite market, the goods in the fluorite field are in good condition, and the market price of fluorite is good The trend has risen sharply. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is tight, and the downstream of the terminal is purchased on demand, resulting in higher market price. As of September 9, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 3200-3400 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 3300-3500 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 3300-3500 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3300-3500 yuan / ton. The price trend of fluorite rose sharply.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the downstream of fluorite slightly increased. As of 9 days, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in China was 11500 yuan / ton. The price rise of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, in the near future, the operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite is normal, and the enterprise has not yet started construction, the supply of goods in the site is relatively tight, and the price of fluorite is significantly higher. In the near future, the transaction market of downstream refrigerants of the terminal has increased. At present, the automobile industry is gradually back to work. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The price trend of domestic refrigerants R22 market is rising slightly. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production units is still not high. The supply of goods in the market is general. The downstream air-conditioning manufacturers are gradually starting to work. The demand changes little. The price mainstream of domestic large enterprises rises to 16500-1850 0 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market is temporarily stable, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is average. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, and the price remains stable. The downstream purchase is still on demand. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is slightly higher, and the downstream market is slightly higher. In addition, the recent price of hydrofluoric acid market is higher, so the fluorite market is favorable Support prices to rise substantially.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry rose slightly, the supply of fluorite was tight, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly in the near future. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may continue to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on March 1, the average ex factory price of the mainstream manufacturers was 22166.67 yuan / ton, and on the weekend (6 days) the average price was 22500 yuan / ton. This week’s market slightly increased by 1.5%. On March 5, the R134a commodity index was 82.32, up 1.22 points from yesterday, down 17.68% from the highest point of 100.00 points (2019-09-02), and up 1.50% from the lowest point of 81.10 points on March 4, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: Refrigerant Market R134a rose this week. At present, the market of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the raw material end is good, which supports refrigerant R134a. In addition, with the increase of refrigerant stock in the automobile industry and the demand for temperature return, it is conducive to the rising of refrigerant R134a price. At present, the refrigerant R134a starts at a high level in the market, and the new capacity is not released. At the same time, due to the impact of the East Sunshine fluorine accident, the factory is cautious in receiving orders. The supply of R134a market is tight, and the price has the potential to rise. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of March 6, Zhejiang Juhua R134a offered 22000 yuan / ton, Quzhou Jiuzhou chemical R134a 22500 yuan / ton and Zhejiang lengwang technology R134a 23000 yuan / ton, The quotation of Yuemei chemical R134a is 21600 yuan / ton, that of Longxun trade R134a is 22000 yuan / ton, that of Yumei chemical R134a is 22000 yuan / ton, that of blue planet R134a is 25000 yuan / ton, and the price is concentrated in 22000 yuan / ton – 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid slightly increased. On March 6, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 10500-11500 yuan / ton. The factory price of some manufacturers in the field was temporarily stable. The operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was average, the supply of goods in the field was slightly strained, and the market price in the field remained high. The terminal and air-conditioning market are weak in purchase and sale, the inventory in the field is acceptable, the construction is insufficient, the automobile industry is preparing goods for temperature return, and the refrigerant R134a price is favorable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 10 commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on March 5, 2020, among which the top three commodities are monoammonium phosphate (3.59%), R134a (1.50%) and 1,4-butanediol (0.83%). There are 10 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and the top three products were crude benzene (- 3.70%), butanone (- 3.63%) and aniline (- 1.93%). The average price of this day was – 0.06%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, the supply of refrigerant R134a in the market is tight, and the raw material end and demand end have good performance. It is expected that refrigerant R134a will be slightly increased in the short term.

On the one hand, the overseas epidemic situation is complex, and there is no stable situation yet, which is expected to have an impact on aluminum consumption; on the other hand, despite the gradual pick-up of demand in March, inventory is in a continuous accumulation situation, and aluminum prices will maintain low volatility.

With the sudden outbreak of the recent overseas epidemic, the global financial market fell into panic and the price of aluminum fell sharply. At present, the domestic epidemic situation has been basically controlled, and all regions are actively and orderly resuming work and production. It is optimistic that the normal production level can be returned in the middle of March. However, due to the complexity of the overseas epidemic and the lack of a stable situation, it is expected that the aluminum consumption will be affected, and the aluminum price in the future will be easy to fall and hard to rise.

Capacity rising trend unchanged

As the profit level of electrolytic aluminum smelting continues to be at a high level in 2019, the smelting capacity has been rising since the fourth quarter, and new investment and re production capacity have contributed. In 2020, the rising trend of supply has not changed. In the first quarter, the new investment capacity is mainly concentrated in Southwest China, including the second phase of Heqing of Yunnan Aluminum and the first phase of Shenhuo of Yunnan Province, which started to be put into operation after the new year’s day, and the new production capacity of Zhongfu of Guangyuan continued to be put into operation. In addition to the new production, the production capacity is also more active before the saving. In the early stage, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other places were forced to reduce production capacity due to accidents or losses. However, affected by the epidemic, some new projects and resumption plans had to slow down. In addition, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Hubei and other places have also slowed down or shelved the resumption plan due to the epidemic.

According to statistics, at the end of February, the operation capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 37.22 million tons, an increase of 580000 tons compared with that at the end of 2019. Despite the impact of the epidemic on some production capacity delivery plans, it is expected that the capacity increment brought by the new investment and resumption of production in March will still be 100000-200000 tons. Therefore, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum keeps rising.

The impact of overseas epidemic should not be underestimated

Different from the small impact of the supply side, the demand side is significantly affected by the epidemic. As of February 27, the national aluminum social inventory (aluminum ingot + aluminum bar) was 1623000 tons, an increase of 829000 tons compared with that before the Spring Festival. However, due to the inconvenience of transportation, the inventory in the factory was nearly 440000 tons, which shows that the accumulated inventory range is much higher than expected.

With the gradual control of the epidemic, production has been resumed all over the country in the near future. However, due to the isolation of returning employees and the incomplete recovery of transportation between regions, the resumption of work is relatively slow. As of this week, the operating rate of aluminum processing industry is expected to be about 50%, and it is estimated that the overall resumption of work nationwide (except for Hubei Province) is expected to be in the middle and late March. Therefore, inventory continues to accumulate, and social inventory is expected to return to the magnitude of 2 million tons.

In addition to the delay in the recovery of domestic consumption, the situation overseas is not optimistic. In recent two weeks, the epidemic has spread rapidly overseas, with South Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran as the most serious ones. Iran, as the producer of electrolytic aluminum, has not heard the news of production reduction. However, South Korea, Japan and Italy are all consumer countries. Although the above-mentioned countries have not yet taken measures to shut down production and have little direct impact on aluminum consumption, the three countries are developed countries with important economic status. Japan and South Korea are the core countries of the global automobile manufacturing industry and semiconductor industry supply chain, and Italy is also one of the largest economies in Europe. Therefore, the spread of the epidemic will have a negative impact on the economy, aluminum consumption and the number of export orders.

Shortage of raw material supply

In addition to the demand side, the epidemic also has a significant impact on alumina production. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, due to the impact of traffic control and the postponement of mine construction, many alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan are in short supply of raw materials, forcing them to reduce or reduce production. At present, the output level of pressure reduction is as high as 5.8 million tons. Even though the import volume continues to increase, the domestic alumina supply and demand still turns to the shortage situation. With the continuous improvement of traffic in the near future, the problem of raw material supply has been alleviated, and the production capacity of some aluminum plants has been restored, but the overall situation is still not significantly improved, so it needs to wait for the comprehensive lifting of traffic ban.

On the whole, domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and the cost side is supported. Although the demand gradually picks up in March, the inventory is in a situation of continuous accumulation, the domestic aluminum price rebound power is insufficient, and the future market will be in a low level oscillation. If the epidemic continues to spread and there are more and more affected areas, the inventory accumulation will further expand, and the domestic aluminum price will fall to 12500 yuan / ton, corresponding to the price of lunlu aluminum at 1600 US dollars / ton.