Price Trend

Mainstream domestic prices of styrene rose first and then fell this week, according to a large number of data monitored by business associations. According to data from business associations, the prices of sample enterprises on Monday (Sept. 16) were 9066.67 yuan/ton, and on Friday (Sept. 20) the prices of sample enterprises were 8800.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.94%, a decline of 24.81% over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products:

This week, styrene market price rose first and then fell, and the market supply is in good condition. On Sept. 16, the closing price of styrene in East China was about 9000-9100 yuan/ton, while on Sept. 20, the closing price of styrene in East China was about 8700-8800 yuan/ton, down about 300 yuan/ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s canning price. On September 16, South China Styrene closed at 9,200 yuan/ton for delivery, and on September 20, South China Styrene closed at 8,900 yuan/ton for delivery, down 300 yuan/ton for delivery from above factories. This week, the market price of styrene rose first and then fell back. The market supply situation is good. The main reservoir area in East China has sufficient styrene stock. Domestic maintenance of styrene factories gradually restored supply. This week’s oil market prices rose sharply, leading to a rise in styrene prices at the beginning of the week. Near the weekend, the supply of styrene in the market was saturated, while the enthusiasm of downstream picking-up decreased, and the high-end prices gradually fell, leading to a decline in domestic styrene prices after this week’s rise. Recently, the market has been profitable in both holding and production links, but there is no support after the rapid rise, and the market has fallen back and consolidated.

Industrial chain:

The upstream crude oil market rose sharply this week, with strong news on the periphery. Both ethylene and pure benzene showed strong trends this week, which supported the production cost of styrene. Some downstream enterprises are actively picking up goods in the early period, and the stock of styrene is relatively sufficient. In addition, the environmental protection inspection before National Day will reduce the demand for styrene. The above situation will lead to the increase of bearish sentiment in the Styrene Market and the consecutive decline in prices until the weekend.

3. Prospects for the Later Period

Styrene analysts believe that in the current market situation, the situation of crude oil price rise may slow down, the extent of crude oil rise is limited, and downstream demand for small and medium-sized enterprises still has room to fall, the overall market buying support is insufficient, terminal digestion pressure. At the same time, domestic styrene overhaul factories have been reworked one after another, and domestic supply has increased, which will further increase the stock of styrene market. Styrene prices are expected to fall slightly next week.

On September 19, the PX commodity index was 52.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.44% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 15.92% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 19th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was started one line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were operated steadily. Temporarily stable operation, due to the normal domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On September 18, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 31 US dollars per ton. The closing price is 799-801 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 818-820 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. However, the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On September 18, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to 58.11 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 1.23 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures fell to 63.60 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 0.95 U.S. dollars. Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz Ben Salman held a news conference in Jeddah on the evening of 17 local time. Saudi Arabia will soon resume most of its oil production and fully resume all production in a few weeks. Crude oil prices have fallen, with limited impact on downstream petrochemical products and a decline in the external price of paraxylene. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA market opening rate maintained high, PTA price trend temporarily stable, the average price of East China in the vicinity of 5400-5500 yuan/ton self-raised, as of 18 days domestic PTA starting rate rose to 97.7%, polyester industry starting rate in about 90%, due to increased PTA supply, trading atmosphere is general, buy to trade. Easy to trade, sporadic polyester factories follow up, affected by the decline in crude oil prices downstream PTA market prices slightly lower, is expected to maintain PX market prices in the short term or 6600 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market has been rising recently. As of September 18, the price of butadiene was 1012 yuan/ton, rising by 10.11% annually and falling by 11.06% year-on-year, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The domestic butadiene market continues to rise, the inventory of export manufacturers is low, the short-term rally stimulates the enthusiasm of downstream inquiries, Sinopec and Northern export manufacturers have substantially increased their prices, boosting the overall market high up. In terms of price, the high-grade products in Shandong are sent to the price reference of 11700-11800 yuan/ton and 12000 yuan/ton in East China. In the afternoon, the supply price of private factories in Shandong rose sharply to 12 200 yuan/ton, and the offer of sporadic merchants increased slightly, but the high price was limited for reference only.

On the market side, the reference price of North China butadiene market is around 12300 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical Co. Ltd. has a high bidding level. Businessmen’offer has been rising. The downstream market just needs to buy. Near the reference price of 12600-12800 yuan/ton for butadiene in East China, the offer in the northern market has risen, the spot in the region is limited, and the offer of businessmen has risen with the increase, and the real order has been negotiated.

Installation: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, operates at low load with a small amount of export. The 50,000 tons/year butadiene plant of Puyang Bluestar Chemical Company was shut down, the raw material supply was insufficient, the start-up time was undetermined, and the latest export price was 11,700 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Fushun Petrochemical Restarted Export, the spot supply in the northern market increased slightly, but short-term factory inventory was low, the upstream part of the upstream mood still exists. In addition, Sinopec’s rising supply price has boosted the mentality of some businessmen. The supply and demand fundamentals of the market are on the strong side. Business analysts predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market. The market continues to go up and tidy up. It is suggested to pay attention to the latest prices and trading situation of manufacturers.

On September 17, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 68.61, up 0.97 points from yesterday, down 42.89% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 41.70% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. The market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China is rising. The downstream factories are just in need of purchasing. Inventory of factories is still under pressure and high-end transactions are blocked. However, the orders on the market are higher than before, and the market price of phthalic anhydride keeps rising. In East China, the mainstream of neighbouring-law supply negotiations is 7200-7400 yuan/ton, naphthalene-law supply negotiations is 6800-6900 yuan/ton; in North China, the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 7000-7100 yuan/ton, the market price keeps rising, some manufacturers raise the ex-factory price, the downstream start-up is not high, the purchase on demand is the main, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant runs steadily, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal. The price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to rise.

The price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6500 yuan/ton recently. Due to the overhaul of domestic phthalic anhydride factories, the supply of goods in the field is tight, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen, the import market of phthalic anhydride in the port area has risen, the recent market of phthalic anhydride in the port is good, the stock of the port has declined sharply, the quotation of phthalic external market has risen, and the actual The supply of phthalic anhydride is very tight due to the increase of repairing equipment. The market price of phthalic anhydride keeps rising, supported by the price of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material. DOP prices in the downstream rose, isooctanol prices rose, and DOP costs rose. DOP price is higher, DOP downstream demand is normal, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market volatility is higher, DOP market mainstream turnover price 8000-8200 yuan/ton, downstream prices have risen, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a higher trend in the later period.

On September 16, the PX commodity index was 52.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.44% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 15.92% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 16th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily. Temporarily stable operation, due to the normal domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On September 13, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 3 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 763-765 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 782-784 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On September 13, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to 54.85 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 0.24 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures fell to 60.22 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 0.16 U.S. dollars. Due to terrorist attacks, Saudi Amy’s factories in Bougaing and Kules caught fire, resulting in 5.7 million barrels per day of the original. Oil shutdown, the supply of major production areas significantly reduced, the opening price of crude oil rose sharply on the 16th day, which brought some favorable support for downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of p-xylene market was temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has maintained a volatile market, PTA market opening rate has slightly declined, PTA price has temporarily stabilized on the 16th day. The average price of East China is raised near 5200-5300 yuan/ton. As of the 12th day, domestic PTA starting rate is about 94.5%, and polyester industry starting rate is about 91%. Traders dominate, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, downstream PTA market prices remain low, downstream demand does not change much, it is expected that the PX market prices will remain low in the short term.