On July 16, the rare earth index was 381 points, down 3 points from yesterday, down 61.90% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 40.59% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals is 415,000 yuan per ton, dysprosium metal is 2.4 million yuan per ton, and the average price of praseodymium metal is down by 10,000 yuan per ton to 700,000 yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 312.5 million yuan per ton, dysprosium oxide is 1.91 million yuan per ton, praseodymium oxide is down 10,000 yuan per ton to 395,000 yuan per ton, and neodymium oxide is 314,500 yuan per ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 415,000 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 191,000 yuan per ton.

Recent price declines in rare earth market, domestic rare earth market trading market is general, most commodity prices in the rare earth market are stable, but in the near future, prices of some products in the market have fallen, prices of dysprosium and terbium metals have fallen, prices of praseodymium and neodymium series products have been declining in the near future, supply in the market is normal, and prices of light rare earths have been moving in the near future. The situation is declining. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Recently, the rare earth market has turned to the seller’s market. The manufacturers have reasonable control over sales and are reluctant to sell. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is still tense. The price trend of rare earth market has slightly declined. Recently, large enterprise groups on the market are reluctant to sell. The market trend of rare earth is poor. However, major manufacturers are cautious about the pricing of products.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, the demand in the downstream is poor, and the trading market of the rare earth industry has declined.

Rare earth analysts from business associations expect that domestic environmental stringency will not diminish in the near future, coupled with domestic rectification of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar restricts exports and reduces supply, but rare earth market transactions are limited in the near future, and some prices in the rare earth market are expected to fall.

On July 14, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 58.39, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.39% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 20.59% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has risen slightly. The market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has rebounded. The downstream factories are still in need of purchasing. Inventory of factories is still under pressure. High-end transactions are blocked. The mainstream of on-site neighbourhood source negotiation is 5900-6200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiation is 5400-5500 yuan/ton. Mainstream quotation is 5900-6000 yuan/ton, market price rises slightly, quotations of enterprises are slightly higher, downstream construction is not high, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal, phthalic anhydride price trend is rising.

Recently, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 5900 yuan/ton. The import price of o-phthalic anhydride in the port area has risen, and the quotation has risen. Recently, the market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port is general, and the port stock is low. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation is higher, import phthalic cost shocks, the actual transaction price is detailed, upstream price trend shocks, phthalic anhydride market price rise is limited. Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride price rises, isooctanol price rises, DOP cost rises. DOP price shocks are higher, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks are stable, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7650 yuan/ton, DOP downward pressure is weakened, there is a certain upward momentum, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly later.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the stable operation of soda ash this week is dominant. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in East China was about 1643.33 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the end of the week, down 22.61% from the same period last year. The light soda commodity index on July 12 was 84.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.50% from the peak of 117.86 points in the cycle (2017-11-21), and up 33.44% from the low of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic soda price maintained stable operation. At present, the domestic light soda mainstream ex-factory price is 1400-1650 yuan/ton. The heavy soda market has been narrowly sorted out, and the market trading atmosphere has also improved. To form a favorable boost to the heavy alkali market. Heavy alkali mainstream including tax delivery price: At present domestic heavy alkali mainstream delivery terminal price is 1650-1800 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Light alkali downstream daily glass, sodium pyrosulfite and foam alkali enterprises, the demand performance is general, North-South differences are large, in the short term, the mainstream of each region to stable prices, small adjustment plans for individual factories or inventory prices.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 27 th week (7.8-7.12) of 2019, there were 34 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 6 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 7.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrochloric acid (18.18%), epichlorohydrin (7.99%) and octanol (7.44%). 。 There were 23 kinds of products with a decrease in ring ratio. The first three products with a decrease in ring ratio were lithium carbonate (-3.88%), phenol (-3.75%) and trichloromethane (-3.17%).

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that: in the near future, domestic soda manufacturers start a steady load, adequate supply. Soda price has dropped to a low level, the enthusiasm of downstream users and traders to get goods has increased, and the inventory of soda manufacturers has continued to decline. It is expected that the soda market will stabilize and improve in the short term, specifically looking at the downstream market demand.

On July 11, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.59% from the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and up 33.79% from the low of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 11th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price talks in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price has slightly declined, the market price is 1773.33 yuan/ton as of the 11th day. The declining trend of nitric acid price has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream has risen slightly, the market performance is general, the market turnover is still acceptable, and most manufacturers have risen by 5%. 0-100 yuan/ton, mainly affected by the increase of upstream costs, transaction remains stable. Most manufacturers’inventory pressure has eased slightly compared with the previous period. Some of the overhauls are the main ones. The supply performance of most manufacturers in North China is still acceptable. The quotations of manufacturers in North China are maintained at around 3200 yuan/ton, while those in Northwest China are above 2750-2800 yuan/ton. Under the normal shipment of manufacturers, rational purchasing of downstream manufacturers, rising prices of raw materials in the upstream have a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

On July 10, the fluorite commodity index was 109.21, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.34% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 121.93% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the average domestic fluorite price is 312.5 yuan/ton as of the 10th day. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is rising recently. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market goes up on demand. The trend is rising. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of the 10th day, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3000-3300 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite remained high.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12080 yuan/ton as of the 10th day. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite is weakening and the price fluctuation of fluorite is running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may remain volatile.