On August 5, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 5th day. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field, 50% of Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started operation, one line of Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started operation, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On August 2, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 24 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 793-795 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 812-814 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On August 2, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to 55.66 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.18 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose to 61.89 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.01 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices rose, which has a certain cost support role for the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of paraxylene Market is temporarily stable. 。 Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices declined on the 5th day, the average price of East China is around 5250-5300 yuan/ton, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 95%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 84%, downstream production and sales rate is lower, but PTA market price is slightly lower, and it is expected that PX market price will be maintained in the later period. Keep oscillating.

Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business associations, the average price of mainstream refineries of domestic naphtha was 5995.00 yuan/ton as of July 31, up 8.02% from 5550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of refined naphtha continued to rise this month.

On July 31, the naphtha commodity index was 73.99, up 0.34 points from yesterday, down 27.90% from the peak of 102.62 points in the cycle (2012-09-24), and up 75.17% from the low of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Refinery naphtha prices continued to rise this month. At present, most refineries have low inventories and less pressure on merchants to ship. At present, the mainstream price of hydronaphtha is around 5950 yuan/ton. The Asian naphtha cracking spreads rose for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, July 31, to $32.40 a tonne, the highest since July 15, as sustained demand underpinned the market.

Industry Chain: Upstream: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was 58.47 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month, 58.05 US dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a weekly increase and decrease of -0.72%; Brent crude oil was 66.55 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month and 64.72 US dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a weekly increase and decrease of -2.75%. Several factors, such as tension between the United States and Iraq, the Gulf of Mexico storm and worries about oversupply, affected the trend of international crude oil prices in July. Downstream: Sinopec suppliers increased demand in the middle of the month, the end of the month and August stockpiling has not yet started, downstream resistance to high prices. According to business associations, toluene market prices rose by more than 5% this month. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5,500 yuan per ton. The market price of xylene is firm and rising steadily. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5850-5880 yuan/ton. This month, due to the sharp decline in pure benzene port inventory and import volume, as well as the shortage of pure benzene supply in the United States, domestic pure benzene prices fell after a sharp rise this month, and the current price of pure benzene is 5000-5350 yuan/ton. In the PX market, the PX pre-maintenance device will be restarted soon, and the new device is planned to be put into production at the end of the month.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in July 2019, there were 7 kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were MTBE (12.29%), diesel (8.34%) and gasoline (8.07%). There are 9 kinds of commodities falling annually, and 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5% accounted for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products of the first three declines were methanol (-9.55%), petroleum coke (-6.15%) and Brent crude oil (-2.75%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.98%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from business associations believe that most refineries have low inventories and less pressure on merchants to ship. Sinopec suppliers will purchase demand in September and October in August. Refining naphtha prices are expected to rise in August, with the average price range of 5800-6300 yuan/ton.

On August 1, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 1st day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1756.67 yuan/ton as of the 1st day. The declining trend of nitric acid price has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate keeps low. The domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is slightly declining, the market performance is general, and the market transaction is still acceptable, mainly by the upstream transaction. The impact of this increase, transaction remains stable, most of the manufacturers’inventory pressure has eased slightly compared with the previous period, and some of the overhauls are the main ones. The supply performance of most manufacturers in North China is still acceptable. The price quoted by manufacturers in North China is maintained at around 3300 yuan/ton. The price quoted by manufacturers in Northwest China is between 2800 yuan/ton and 3000 yuan/ton. The normal shipment of manufacturers is downstream. Reasonable purchasing of manufacturers and the downward trend of raw material prices have a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

From January to February 2019, the price of raw coal tar declined sharply in the early stage, but the price of raw coal tar rose later. However, due to the Spring Festival holidays, more downstream overhauls and less purchases of carbon black, the price of carbon black did not rise, and the market price was temporarily stable. From March to June, due to the high price of raw materials, the high cost pressure of carbon black and the rising price of carbon black market, but due to the reduction of downstream demand, the price of carbon black market is severely depressed, coupled with low-price competition in the market, which limits the price increase of carbon black. In the second half of the year, due to the decrease of downstream demand and the off-season of downstream demand in July and August, the trend of carbon black falling easily and rising difficultly will continue.

In the first half of 2019, the profit of carbon black market was in a loss situation. Especially in the first quarter, a number of listed companies issued news that carbon black losses are serious, corporate profits fell more than last year.

Why the carbon black market is losing so much depends on the most important downstream tire market.

Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released tire sales data for the first half of the year. In the first half of 2019, the sales volume of rubber tyres in China totaled 40,467.9 million, down 5.4% from 42,756,000 in the same period last year; the production and sales rate increased by 100.4% and decreased by 3.6% compared with the previous quarter; and the inventory at the end of the year decreased by 3% compared with the beginning of the year. De-stocking is an industry consensus.

In the first half of 2019, the terminal tire market started to decline compared with last year. In the first half of the year, due to the reduction of terminal car sales, combined with trade and other factors, the tire factory started to decline. Due to the decline in start-up, the demand for carbon black in tire market in the first half of the year decreased by 706,600 tons compared with last year, and the demand decreased considerably, which limited the growth of the whole carbon black market and caused serious losses.

Internationally, recently, Donghai Carbon Corporation announced that it would increase the price of carbon black in the US market due to the rising cost of raw materials. The new price will be calculated by the company based on the current situation and will be announced to the outside world in the near future. Carbon in the East China Sea indicated that the shale oil revolution in the United States had reduced the supply of carbon black raw materials and increased the production cost of carbon black. With the rising production cost of carbon black, the international carbon black giant announced a price increase. Domestic carbon black enterprises are expected to follow the global price rise, thus increasing the performance in the second half of the year.

On July 30, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 30th day. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily because of the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On July 29, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 10 US dollars per ton. The closing price is 812-814 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 821-823 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On July 29, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to 56.87 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.67 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose to 63.71 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.25 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices rose, which has a cost supporting effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. 。 Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices declined 30 days, the average price of East China is around 5500-5600 yuan/ton, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 84%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 85%, downstream production and sales rate is lower, but PTA market price is slightly lower, and it is expected that PX market price will be in the later period. Maintain shock.