On August 19, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the low of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price has maintained stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate plant is running smoothly, and is in the off-season of downstream demand. The ammonium nitrate manufacturer’s shipment quotation is general, the downstream is purchased on demand, combined with the impact of environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China has stopped production more, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturer has limited start-up, and the on-site price. Maintain a low level. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream in Shaanxi was 1950-2050 yuan/ton, Shandong was 1900-2000 yuan/ton, and Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate was maintained. Keep oscillating.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, up to 19 days, the market price is 1693.33 yuan/ton, the domestic nitric acid market price maintains a low level, mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province offer 1680 yuan/ton, mainstream manufacturers in Anhui Province offer 1700 yuan/ton, and Shandong manufacturers offer 1700 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of nitric acid brings about the market of ammonium nitrate. The price trend of ammonium nitrate remains low due to certain negative effects; the domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream has fallen back, the market performance is general, the market turnover is still acceptable, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3200 yuan/ton, and the upstream cost of liquid ammonia is lower. In addition, the inventory pressure of most manufacturers has increased compared with the previous period, and some plants have been restarted. Local ammonia supply has increased in the region, especially in Shanxi and North China. Most of the manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia. The price quoted by the manufacturers in North China is maintained in the range of 2900-3400 yuan/ton. The price quoted by the manufacturers in Northwest China is in the range of 2500-2600 yuan/ton. The decline of liquid ammonia market has a negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate market. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

According to the price data of business associations, as of August 16, the average price of 1.2D*38mm viscose staple fibers in the domestic market was 11662 yuan/ton, down 3.04% annually, 366 yuan/ton, down 19.46% year-on-year, up to 3818 yuan/ton. Mid-end large factories offer 11500-12000 yuan/ton, high-end large factories offer 1160-12000 yuan/ton. Tangshan has long been famous for its high price of 12,500 yuan per ton. In mid-June of this year, the price of viscose staple fibers was 11450 yuan/ton, reaching the lowest price in eight years.

On Tuesday (August 13), international oil prices rose sharply. Sino-US trade relations sent good signals. China had a serious conversation on the US plan to impose tariffs on some Chinese goods on September 1. Meanwhile, the US representative issued a statement saying that some tariffs imposed on China had been postponed until December 15. This news made the market demand side. Worries abated and international oil prices soared. At the same time, the star futures products PTA, MEG, cotton and so on in the textile industry chain have increased in varying degrees. In recent days, PTA and polyester start-up rate are about 8.5-9%, production and marketing rate has also increased significantly. On August 14, the second day after the incident, the production and marketing rate of polyester filament is 340%, the production and marketing rate of polyester staple is as high as 500-1000%, and the production and marketing rate of polyester chips has reached 100-300%.

However, the positive macro news did not pass on to the viscose staple fiber industry chain, market turnover is still flat, almost no response to the news, yarn and grey fabric for viscose market take a hollow view.

The price of downstream man-made cotton yarn was 17200 yuan/ton on the 16th day, down 0.72% annually, or 125 yuan/ton, or 14.68% year-on-year, or up to 2560 yuan/ton. Big factories offer two-level differentiation is more serious, middle-end large factories offer 16200-16500 yuan/ton, high-end large factories offer 17400-17800 yuan/ton. From this week’s spot trend of cotton and cotton yarn, the benefits of Sino-US trade are gradually enlarging, yarn prices are trying to stabilize, but downstream demand is still poor, some yarn stocks are still at a high level, and textile mills are still under great pressure.

In summary, business analysts believe that polyester staple fibers and viscose staple fibers are the same door. Polyester staple fibers make good use of the news to drive a large deal of transactions and transfer inventory smoothly. Viscose staple yarn passes smoothly, and downstream cotton yarn still keeps stock for more than 20 days. As the peak season of gold, silver and silver is approaching, the Development and Reform Commission has issued a series of policies to promote yarn sales. China-US trade on September 1 still imposes tariffs on nearly 65% of textile products. Faced with the volatility of Sino-US friction, the Chinese people have become accustomed to it and have little impact. It is expected that the viscose will not fall again in the short term and run smoothly, waiting for September to change its former state and soar into the sky.

Price Trend

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been tidied up slightly. As of August 15, the price of butadiene was 1,090 yuan/ton, up 18.85% annually and down 21.72% year-on-year, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The domestic butadiene market is slightly consolidated. Although the supplier price has not been significantly adjusted for the time being, some business offers are relatively strong, but the downstream inquiry intention is weak, and sporadic negotiations are mainly low-end. Fushun Petrochemical announced its export plan, together with a certain amount of other export manufacturers, the expected increase in market supply is obvious; however, the downstream rubber market is weak, some private enterprises parked, the supply and demand fundamentals weakened, and the business mentality is empty.

On the market side, the butadiene market in East China is mainly consolidated. Although the downstream inquiry intention is not high, there is no obvious supply pressure in the region for the time being. The middlemen mainly wait and see for stable prices. The delivery of high-quality products to the offer is maintained at 10600-10700 yuan/ton, and the actual single negotiation is low-end. The market atmosphere of butadiene in North China is weak, the downstream inquiry atmosphere is low, the news of rubber market and terminal demand market is empty, and the turnover of foreign manufacturers is not good, which brings drag on the mentality of the merchants. The price of high-grade products is about 1,015 yuan/ton, which is negotiated separately.

Installation: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 # long-term shutdown; 1 # and 2 # total 120,000 tons/year plant normal operation; Zhenhai refinery and chemical 165,000 tons/year plant normal operation, mutual supply is the main, a small amount of export; Liaotong Petrochemical 120,000 tons/year butadiene plant normal operation, bidding export trading range 9510-9518 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical 160,000 tons/year plant is in normal operation, and there is no export for the time being. The 100,000-ton/year oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Silbang, Jiangsu, stopped on July 29 and plans to restart.

3. Future Market Forecast

Although the short-term supply price of Sinopec is high, and domestic manufacturers have no obvious inventory pressure, the downstream trend of synthetic rubber is weak, and there is no lack of parking information for private enterprises, and the market supply and demand is weak. Fushun Petrochemical Restart Export, together with the rest of the northern manufacturers to maintain normal volume, the region is abundant in spot, business community butadiene analysts predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market is not lack of downward expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to the latest prices and turnover of manufacturers.

I. The price trend of epichlorohydrin:

The market for epichlorohydrin has fallen, according to a large number of data from business associations. As of August 13, the average price of epichlorohydrin was 14400.00 yuan/ton, down 17.56% compared with August 1.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Epichlorohydrin market fell. Mainstream manufacturers offer downward, market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, trading atmosphere is weak, real orders are limited, low-end offers increase under the pressure of shipment. At present, the mainstream price of epichlorohydrin in domestic market is around 14000-14900 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: Upstream propylene market in Shandong continued to rebound by the 13th. The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province maintained stable in early August, and began to fall continuously on the 5th day. It dropped 450-500 yuan/ton on the 8th day. The double weekend began to rise again. On the 13th day, the price of propylene enterprises rose again by 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the market turnover is about 7650-7750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7650 yuan/ton. The downstream epoxy resin loses cost support due to the decline of raw materials, and becomes weaker gradually. The high-end transaction is slightly difficult, and the actual single transaction is limited.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, on August 13, 2019, there were 11 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector. The top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (3.95%), dichloromethane (3.28%) and acetic anhydride (2.45%). There were 18 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines were epichlorohydrin (-10.65%), yellow phosphorus (-6.67%) and cyclohexanone (-2.48%). The average 13-day rise and fall was -0.18%.

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3. Future market forecast:

Analysts of business association epichlorohydrin think that the rising price of propylene in the upstream has some support for epichlorohydrin, but in the downstream manufacturers’buying-up and not-buying-down mentality, the lower the market is, the more unintentional it is to pick up goods, the more prudent it is to operate and purchase on demand, the terminal consumption is still weak. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by weak operation in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market trends.

On August 13, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 56.93, down 0.49 points from yesterday, down 52.61% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), up 17.58% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

In recent years, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has declined, the market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has slightly declined, downstream factories are still in need of purchasing, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions are blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbourhood source negotiation is 5600-5800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiation is 5200-5400 yuan/ton in the phthalic anhydride market in North China. Mainstream quotation is 5600-5700 yuan/ton, market price is slightly lower, quotation of enterprises slightly declines, downstream construction is not high, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is sufficient, phthalic anhydride price trend is declining.

In the near future, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 6000 yuan/ton. The import market of phthalic anhydride in the port area has fallen, the quotation is stable, the recent market of phthalic anhydride in the port is general, the port stock is low, the quotation of o-phthalic anhydride outside market has fallen concussively, the actual transaction price is based on negotiation, the factual details are discussed in detail, Market prices remain low and volatile.

Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride price is temporarily stable, isooctanol price is stable, DOP cost trend is stable. DOP prices remain temporarily stable, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks rise, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7350 yuan/ton, downstream price shocks, coupled with plasticizer industry in the off-season, downstream demand is not improving, phthalic anhydride market prices are expected to remain low later.