On October 9, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 67.15, down 0.49 points from yesterday, down 44.10% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 38.68% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined, the market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has declined, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, the inventory pressure of factories has increased, high-end transactions have been blocked, recent inventories of factories have increased, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has declined. In East China, the mainstream of neighbouring-method supply negotiations is 6800-7100 yuan/ton, naphthalene-method supply negotiations is 6200-6500 yuan/ton; in North China, the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6700-6900 yuan/ton, most manufacturers in the field price callback, downstream start-up is not high, on-demand procurement is dominant, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant runs steadily, phthalic anhydride spot supply is sufficient, and phthalic anhydride downstream demand Unfortunately, demand for phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

Recently, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6,900 yuan/ton. As a result of the restart of repair facilities of some domestic o-phthalic manufacturers, the supply of goods in the field has increased, the import market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port area has declined, the quotation has fallen, the recent market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port has declined, the stock of the port is low, the quotation of o-ph Affected by the drop in the price of phthalic anhydride, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to decline. Downstream DOP prices slightly fell, isooctanol prices fell, DOP costs fell. DOP price declined, DOP downstream demand was normal, customer purchasing enthusiasm was general, downstream PVC market shocks declined, DOP high-end transactions were blocked, DOP market mainstream transaction price 7600-8000 yuan/ton, downstream price trend shocks, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to fall slightly later.

Price trends:

After the stabilization of the crude benzol Market in September 2019, the ex-factory price in North China increased by 14.42% at the beginning of the month at 3930 yuan/ton and at the end of the month at 4496.67 yuan/ton.

The crude benzol commodity index on September 30 was 70.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.59% from the cyclical peak of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and up 79.41% from the lowest point of 39.25 on December 22, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: The crude benzol Market rose 14.42% monthly after this month’s turbulence. At the end of the month, the price entered a downward trend. Since mid-September, the crude benzol Market has continued to rise. During the Mid-Autumn holidays, most of the downstream products began to stock up in advance. At the same time, the external market of pure benzol continued to rise. The listed price of pure benzol of Sinopec increased 200 yuan/ton to 5750 yuan/ton again. The market sentiment was rising and the main production area tendered. Prices have risen sharply, and it is difficult to find downstream hydrobenzene from low-level sources. The manufacturers’offer has risen by 150-200 yuan/ton compared with last week. The overall start-up rate of the plant this week is about 50%. The price difference between crude benzene and hydrobenzene was reduced. The profit is reduced, so the manufacturer’s willingness to ship is low. Downstream styrene, phenol and other devices started higher, stock sentiment is strong, and then entered the consolidation of the shock channel, prices slightly declined at the end of the month, mainly affected by traffic, environmental protection and other factors during the National Day. At the end of the month, the crude benzol price in Shanxi is about 4325 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong is about 4575 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: On September 14, Saudi Arabia’s largest crude oil facility was attacked by unmanned aerial vehicles, resulting in more than 5 million barrels per day production suspension, Saudi oil output and exports were greatly affected, international oil prices jumped, rising by more than 10%. Pure benzene rose sharply from 16 to 18 days as international oil prices soared and commodity markets improved. This month, WTI oil prices rose by 1.64% compared with last month, while Brent oil prices rose by 5.75%. Pure benzene: At the beginning of the month, due to the lower inventory of pure benzene in East China, the market supply is on the low side, and the price of pure benzene has an obvious rise. Affected by the Saudi Arabian incident on the 16th, crude oil and pure benzene external market soared, driving the domestic market of pure benzene upward. This month, the total spot of pure benzene is on the low side, and the port inventory keeps falling, which supports the high price of pure benzene. At the end of the month, the impact of the Saudi Arabian incident subsided, the crude oil outer disk declined, the price gap between domestic and foreign decreased, and the high price support of pure benzene weakened. In addition, near 11, downstream environmental protection inspection, parking restrictions in some factories, pure benzene just needed insufficient, the market fell.

3. Trend forecast:

Previous crude benzene prices rose sharply, hydrogenated benzene pressure is strong, with the environmental upgrade of hydrogenated benzene business overhaul increased, the demand for crude benzene decreased, the lack of downstream support, crude benzene prices after the festival have room to fall.

I. Trend analysis

According to the data of business associations, the domestic price of cis-butadiene rubber rose mainly in September. At the beginning of the month, the price was 11075 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 1290 yuan/ton, up 16.48%.

II. Market Analysis

Influenced by the slight increase in raw materials, cis-butadiene rubber rose slightly at the beginning of the month, and then stabilized for half a month. On the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene is stable, and the whole cis-butadiene rubber industry chain is in a balanced state. According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of raw material butadiene was basically stable in the first half of September. At the beginning of the month, the price was 10,354 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 10,390, which was relatively stable as a whole. On the other hand, downstream tires started relatively stable, and the purchase of cis-tin was not warm. Although the ex-factory price of petrochemical plants increased slightly at the beginning of the month, the market was mainly shipped, and the offer was relatively stable.

The market of cis-butadiene rubber rose sharply in the second half of September. Firstly, the price of cis-butadiene rubber rose sharply due to the impact of the soaring crude oil, which put great pressure on the price of cis-butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of raw material Butadiene on September 16 was 10 401 yuan/ton, and on September 29, the price of butadiene was 1 1845 yuan/ton, up 13.66 percent as a whole. Secondly, the bottom price of Shanghai rubber construction rose to 12,000 yuan per ton in September, which led to the rising sentiment of cis-butadiene rubber. Finally, the start-up of cis-butadiene rubber plant has dropped significantly since the third quarter. After entering the August, the first stop was to stop and stop parking, and then to be forced to stop or reduce the load of the butadiene rubber and Qixiang rubber and other butadiene rubber units, which led to a continuous decline in the operating rate of 50%, and the supply was further reduced.

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In late September, with the National Day approaching, environmental protection supervision became more stringent, production restriction and shutdown plans were gradually implemented in some areas, the purchasing power of cis-butadiene was weakened, and the price rise of cis-butadiene rubber was slightly alleviated. It is understood that the letter issued by the office of the emergency response working group of the heavy pollution weather bureau of the provincial Party Committee on heavy pollution weather in response to the heavy pollution weather process in from September 25th to 29th suggested that municipalities issued the orange warning for heavy pollution weather at 0:00 on September 23rd and launched the second level emergency response at 0:00 in September 24th. At that time, some tire enterprises will have a limited production shutdown plan.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Business analysts believe that, on the one hand, the rising price of raw materials butadiene supports the price of cis-butadiene rubber; on the other hand, the supply of cis-butadiene market is relatively tight, and in the later period, the price of cis-butadiene rubber will remain high.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market of DMF in Shandong rose in September, with the average price of DMF at the beginning of the month being 4600.00 yuan/ton and at the end of the month being 4966.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.97%. Current prices are down 32.58% from last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: DMF market rose this week. By the end of September, mainstream manufacturers in East China offered 5700-5800 yuan/ton, mainstream manufacturers in Guangdong offered 6000 yuan/ton and mainstream manufacturers in Shandong offered 5500 yuan/ton. Henan Junhua 30,000 tons/year plant parking overhaul has been restarted. The 100,000 tons/year DMF plant in Luxi Chemical Industry of Shandong Province stopped for maintenance on August 14 and restarted in the first ten days of October. The 30,000 tons/year DMF plant in Junhua, Henan Province stopped for maintenance on September 21. There is no news about the restart time. Shaanxi Yanxinghua has annual output of 100,000 tons/year DMF device 18 parking overhaul, restart time may be at the end of the month. Anyang, Henan Province, 9 days of annual production of 120,000 tons/year DMF device 26 due to Anhuan inspection parking, restart time after 11. DMF inventory is at a low level, the major DMF manufacturers have a positive mentality, have increased prices, double positive, DMF prices continue to rise.

Industry chain: The price of methanol in the upstream continues to rise. Influenced by crude oil, methanol futures and the expectation of methanol to olefin production, the methanol market has a positive trading atmosphere. Mainland enterprises have shipped smoothly, and the focus of market negotiations is constantly rising. At the beginning of the month, the price was 1994.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 2289.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.84%. The equipment start-up rate of domestic pulp mills has increased due to the influence of the peak season. The terminal orders of the main factories in the industry have increased, and the purchasing is active, which promotes the rise of DMF prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

Recently, the upstream methanol market was affected by the high price finishing before the end of the 11-long vacation. The downstream slurry enterprises were just in need of improvement driven by the peak season of the gold, silver and ten markets. In addition, the nine-day parking and maintenance in Anyang aggravated the decline rate of DMF inventory. Therefore, the DMF product analysts of business associations believed that the short-term DMF market consolidation was on the upward trend. Lord.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic isomeric xylene market showed a slight pullback this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.7%, due to the effect of oil price pullback and long vacation.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Affected by the rapid recovery of Saudi crude oil production capacity, oil price recovery and the coming of long holidays in China, and the increasingly light trade, the isomeric xylene market showed a slight retracement trend this week despite the support of low port inventory. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 6850-6900 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from traders, the trading volume fell slightly from last week, and the port inventory remained low, at about 15,000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil, affected by the rapid recovery of Saudi oil production, this week’s oil price rebound, spot Brent fell 3.8%, Brent futures fell 5.11%, WTI futures fell 3.12%, Dubai futures fell 3.98%.

Downstream, PX market, domestic PX price trend is stable, short-term PX market prices are expected to maintain a stable trend. PTA market, this week’s price trend is stable, CFR China is about 650 U.S. dollars / ton, affected by the downstream demand is not strong, PTA is expected to maintain a stable and volatile trend in the short term. OX market, the external offer FOB Rotterdam about 845 U.S. dollars / ton, due to the upstream mixed xylene rise, as well as downstream phthalic anhydride, plasticizer Market warming, this week o-xylene continued to rise, the short-term trend of o-xylene is expected to be stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that next week we will continue to focus on the trend of the Middle East situation, the progress of tariff imposition in Sino-US trade negotiations, and the European and American economies are worried about the expected fluctuation of demand for crude oil in the recession prospects. Due to the long-term holiday effect, the toluene market is expected to adjust its trend in a small way next week.