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Supply is tight, domestic market price of dichloromethane keeps rising

Market Overview

 

According to a large amount of data monitoring from the business agency, the recent dichloromethane market in Shandong continues to rise. At present, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2710 yuan / ton, up 7.11% from last weekend.

 

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quotations analysis

 

Product: affected by the negative impact of some enterprises’ maintenance, the supply of dichloromethane in Shandong market is reduced. In the case of just stable demand, the price of dichloromethane continues to rise, and the industry has a good mentality. In terms of enterprise maintenance, Shandong Dongyue 280000 tons / year plant maintenance to the middle of November, Shandong Jinling reduced the load, Luxi Chemical started 60% and executed more foreign trade orders. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2710 yuan / ton; that in East China is about 2900-3000 yuan / ton; that in Jiangxi is about 3000 yuan / ton.

 

Industry chain: in the upstream, with the start of heating in winter, some regions have started to replenish urban gas, and the demand has gradually increased. With multiple favorable supports, the upstream price awareness of LNG is strong and the trend is strong. At present, it is about 3790 yuan / ton. Due to the impact of maintenance, the supply of liquid chlorine in the industry is tight and the price continues to rise. At present, the enterprise reports about 700-850 yuan / ton more. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant terminal air-conditioning market has a low maintenance load and a flat demand; the pharmaceutical and agricultural market and solvent industry have a good intention of replenishing inventory, with a strong demand and a good support for the price of dichloromethane.

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Forecast for future market

 

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, the overall supply of the market is tight at present. Jinling of Shandong Province plans to overhaul around the middle of November to the end of the month. At present, the limit is revived. Under the current situation of stable demand, the price of dichloromethane is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

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The cost of methanol fell sharply, and the dimethyl ether market rose first and then fell in October.

I. price trend

 

In October, the domestic market of dimethyl ether rose first and then fell, mainly fluctuating. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic DME market was 3320 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 3310 yuan / ton, with a drop of 0.3% in the month, 30.29% lower than the same period last year.

 

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II. Market analysis

 

In October, the market of dimethyl ether fell, and the market trading atmosphere turned weak. As of October 29, no quotation has been made for the parking of DME devices of Hebei Yutai and Shanxi orchid company. The ex factory price of DME of Henan Lankao Huitong Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3320 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of DME of Henan Yima Xinyuan is 3270 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of DME of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 3300 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of DME of Henan Shengxin Biotechnology Co., Ltd. The price is 3320 yuan / ton, the factory price of dimethyl ether of Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3400 yuan / ton, and the factory price of dimethyl ether of Shandong Dezhou shengdeyuan company is 3370 yuan / ton.

 

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In the first half of October, the market of dimethyl ether rose broadly, and in the second half of the month, it fell continuously, showing the trend of “developing first, then restraining”. This month, it was greatly affected by the cost of methanol. In the first half of the month, after the 11th holiday, the methanol market continued to rise, with the cost driven by the rise of dimethyl ether. Henan xinlianxin rose 300 yuan / ton for six consecutive days, and actively entered the market under the downstream buying up mentality. The manufacturer reported that the delivery situation was good. In the middle of the year, the trend was stable, a small number of manufacturers started to operate, the market supply increased, the downstream receiving strength weakened, and the market returned to rationality. In the second half of the month, it mainly fell. With the increase of production capacity, the increase of supply and demand, the imbalance of supply and demand, and the sharp dive of cost methanol market, the downstream mentality continued to wait and see, the market transaction atmosphere became weak, the manufacturer’s shipment was blocked, and the inventory pressure gradually increased. Prices have fallen in a row.

 

III. future forecast

 

Dimethyl ether analysts of business club think: at present, the cost of methanol is narrow range, the gas market is weak and falling, and the market mentality is negative. At present, downstream mentality is cautious and enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. However, the demand increased in November, and the cost methanol inventory may rebound. It is expected that the DME market will adjust in the short term, and the DME market may slightly rise in November.

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On October 28, China’s domestic rare earth market price continued to fall

On October 27, the rare earth index was 345, unchanged from yesterday, 65.50% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and 27.31% higher than the lowest point, 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

 

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals decreased by 4000 yuan / ton to 370500 yuan / ton, 20000 yuan / ton to 2055000 yuan / ton and 660000 yuan / ton respectively. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide decreased by 4000 yuan / ton to 290500 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide decreased by 20000 yuan / ton to 1595000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide was 355000 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide decreased by 4000 yuan / ton to 292500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy decreased by 4000 yuan / ton to 370500 yuan / ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy decreased by 20000 yuan / ton to 1595000 yuan / ton.

 

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In recent years, the market price trend of rare earth has continued to decline. The domestic rare earth market is generally trading. Due to the increase of Myanmar’s supply, the prices of dysprosium, terbium and oxide have been falling continuously, and the prices of heavy rare earth have continued to fall. In the near future, the inquiry list of praseodymium neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide has declined, and the price of light rare earth oxide has declined slightly. In the near future, the light rare earth merchants in the field are not in good condition, and the recent trading situation in the field is general. The supply of rare earth in China is normal. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the environmental protection supervision in the whole country. The production of rare earth is special, especially the radiation hazards of some products make the environmental protection supervision more strict. Metal enterprises and downstream magnetic material enterprises are weak in purchasing after and before the festival due to the surplus of purchasing before the festival. In addition, the price of rare earth has declined compared with the previous period, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in the general market supply of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, which are in normal supply, and the market price trend of rare earth is declining. In the near future There is a strong wait-and-see mood among large enterprise groups in the market. The rare earth market is generally trading, and the trading volume is at a low level.

 

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In the near future, the national environmental protection department has made unremitting efforts to inspect the rare earth industry. Jiangxi Province has strengthened the supervision of the rare earth industry, which has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a relatively low start-up situation, and the market situation is cold, which has brought some good support to the rare earth market. Recently, the supervision group of the State Council went to Jiangxi Province to supervise rare earth enterprises. This supervision focused on the major deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, highlighted the key and difficult issues in the field of economic operation and reform and development, focused on the strong blocking points and pain points reflected by the people and market subjects, and promoted the implementation of various work. In addition, the national development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have taken effective measures to rectify and standardize the industry, innovated and improved the relevant management mechanism, accelerated the construction of an industry development pattern with reasonable industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective resource protection and orderly production and operation, effectively utilized the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource, and the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk. , people in the domestic arena are waiting for the specific good news of the policy and the national reserve.

 

Rare earth analysts of the business society expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced, and the domestic order of rare earth industry will be rectified, and the supply of rare earth industry in Jiangxi will maintain a low level, but the downstream demand for rare earth will not improve in the near future, and the supply of heavy rare earth import will increase, and the rare earth market is expected to continue to decline.

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Price of precious metals rose on October 25

Price trend of spot precious metals

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average spot price of domestic gold on the 25th was 342.86 yuan / g, an increase of 0.64% compared with the spot price of gold on the 24th, 347.60 yuan / g, a decrease of 1.36% compared with the monthly peak (October 9), and 284.10 yuan / g, an increase of 20.68% compared with the spot price at the beginning of the year (01.01).

 

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The spot price of domestic silver on October 25 was 4308.33 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.87% compared with the spot price of silver on October 24, 4364.67 yuan / kg, a decrease of 1.29% compared with the monthly peak (October 9), and 3617.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 19.09% compared with the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01).

 

Main favorable factors

 

1. Impact of brexit news

 

British Prime Minister Gordon Johnson said Thursday that he would restart the legislative process of the suspended brexit agreement if the lower house of parliament agreed to hold an early election on December 12.

 

2. Interest rate cut and loose policy expectation of central banks

 

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(1) recently ECB President Draghi released a dovey tone yesterday, emphasizing the risk of economic downturn.

 

(2) the recently released US economic data is weak. The market expects that the possibility of another interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve meeting ending on October 30 will increase, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the third time this year.

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On October 24, the market price trend of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable

On October 24, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

 

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On the 24th, the price trend of ammonium nitrate in the domestic market was temporarily stable, the operation of the devices of the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers was stable, the delivery market of the ammonium nitrate manufacturers was general, the downstream purchased on demand, and affected by the environmental protection control, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stopped production more, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started construction limited, and the market price trend was temporarily stable. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi Province is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, in Shandong Province is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and in Hebei Province is 2300-2500 yuan / ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream manufacturers are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate is at a low level, but the cost of raw materials is well supported, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is stable.

 

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In recent years, the price trend of domestic nitric acid market continues to decline, and the quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province is 1600 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Anhui is about 1650 yuan / ton. Shandong manufacturers offer 1650 yuan / ton or so, and the price trend declines. The delivery of nitric acid is general. The fall of nitric acid price has a certain negative impact on the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. The market of domestic liquid ammonia in the upstream mainly fluctuates at a low level, and some enterprises in Shandong maintain stability, while the price in the northwest remains stable. At present, the local ammonia quantity is surplus, especially some manufacturers in Shandong have loose supply and enterprises. The shipping pressure of the industry is increasing, but the price of manufacturers with large ammonia volume is mainly stable. The main quotation in Shandong Province is 2900-3000 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei Province is 2850-3000 yuan / ton. The lower liquid ammonia market has a certain negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. In the near future, the market of the downstream civil explosive industry has not changed much. The market demand for ammonium nitrate is limited. The inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high, but the market price of raw materials remains high. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is generally stable due to the commodity market. Analysts of ammonium nitrate of business association think that the market price of upstream raw material nitric acid continues to decline in the near future, and the downstream demand is still at a low level, and it is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will fall slightly in the later stage.

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