On September 17, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 68.61, up 0.97 points from yesterday, down 42.89% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 41.70% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. The market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China is rising. The downstream factories are just in need of purchasing. Inventory of factories is still under pressure and high-end transactions are blocked. However, the orders on the market are higher than before, and the market price of phthalic anhydride keeps rising. In East China, the mainstream of neighbouring-law supply negotiations is 7200-7400 yuan/ton, naphthalene-law supply negotiations is 6800-6900 yuan/ton; in North China, the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 7000-7100 yuan/ton, the market price keeps rising, some manufacturers raise the ex-factory price, the downstream start-up is not high, the purchase on demand is the main, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant runs steadily, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal. The price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to rise.

The price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6500 yuan/ton recently. Due to the overhaul of domestic phthalic anhydride factories, the supply of goods in the field is tight, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen, the import market of phthalic anhydride in the port area has risen, the recent market of phthalic anhydride in the port is good, the stock of the port has declined sharply, the quotation of phthalic external market has risen, and the actual The supply of phthalic anhydride is very tight due to the increase of repairing equipment. The market price of phthalic anhydride keeps rising, supported by the price of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material. DOP prices in the downstream rose, isooctanol prices rose, and DOP costs rose. DOP price is higher, DOP downstream demand is normal, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market volatility is higher, DOP market mainstream turnover price 8000-8200 yuan/ton, downstream prices have risen, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a higher trend in the later period.

On September 16, the PX commodity index was 52.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.44% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 15.92% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 16th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily. Temporarily stable operation, due to the normal domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On September 13, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 3 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 763-765 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 782-784 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On September 13, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to 54.85 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 0.24 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures fell to 60.22 U.S. dollars per barrel, or 0.16 U.S. dollars. Due to terrorist attacks, Saudi Amy’s factories in Bougaing and Kules caught fire, resulting in 5.7 million barrels per day of the original. Oil shutdown, the supply of major production areas significantly reduced, the opening price of crude oil rose sharply on the 16th day, which brought some favorable support for downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of p-xylene market was temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has maintained a volatile market, PTA market opening rate has slightly declined, PTA price has temporarily stabilized on the 16th day. The average price of East China is raised near 5200-5300 yuan/ton. As of the 12th day, domestic PTA starting rate is about 94.5%, and polyester industry starting rate is about 91%. Traders dominate, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, downstream PTA market prices remain low, downstream demand does not change much, it is expected that the PX market prices will remain low in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, as of September 12, the average price of n-butanol in mainstream areas was 6 800 yuan/ton (including tax). The price of n-butanol in mainstream areas was 33 yuan/ton (including tax) lower than that of September 11, down by 0.49%. At present, the mainstream price range of n-butanol in China is 6 700-6 900 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Beginning early this week (September 9), the market price of n-butanol increased slightly compared with last week. The rising price maintained until mid-week (September 11). Affected by the increase of supply, the downstream purchasing situation was poor, the wait-and-see mood was strong, and the market as a whole was in a stalemate. By September 12, the market price of n-butanol appeared small. The price was flat with that at the beginning of the week, and the average price remained stable at 6,800 yuan/ton. The supply of n-butanol increased in Shandong, and the market mainly took the initiative to receive orders before the short and long holidays. There was little intention to follow up the low-end offer in the market. At present, as of September 12, the ex-factory quotation of n-butanol from Lihua Chemical Company in Shandong Province is around 6,800 yuan/ton, which has been stable for a week; the ex-factory quotation of n-butanol from Luxi Chemical Company is 6,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from September 11; and the ex-factory quotation of n-butanol from Wanhua Chemical Company in North China is stable at 6,900 yuan/ton this week, with no adjustment in the week.

Industry chain: The domestic market of propylene, the upstream product of n-butanol, has been steadily rising as a whole. The price of propylene in Shandong has remained stable. The price of propylene in Shandong has slightly declined by about 50 yuan/ton from 9 to 10 this week. On 11, the price of some enterprises has risen by 50 yuan/ton, and on 12, it has been stable. At present, the market turnover is about 7600-7750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price remains unchanged. It’s still 7,600 yuan/ton. As the Mid-Autumn Festival is approaching, downstream manufacturers are actively stocking up, upstream refineries are more willing to push up, shipments are relatively smooth, and transport of dangerous chemicals is limited during the holidays, spot market is slightly tense, the market or storage space in the short term.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business societies data analysts believe that: in late September, the overall stability of butanol operation is expected to be the main, the market supply is stable under the premise of small price adjustments.

On September 11, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 94.10, which was the same as yesterday. It was 32.99% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 75.59% higher than the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of hydrofluoric acid remains low, up to the present domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 370 yuan/ton, the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the current spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, and the hydrofluoric acid market is not moving in the near future. As the downstream demand is not improving, some hydrofluoric acid is not available. Manufacturers continue to reduce prices, hydrofluoric acid market prices continue to fall. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 9500-10000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9500-10000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price maintains low level, spot supply is sufficient, but demand is poor, hydrofluoric acid market is weak.

Upstream fluorite market prices fell, up to 11 days fluorite price was 2927.78 yuan/ton, upstream raw material prices fell to the hydrofluoric acid market has a negative impact, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is affected by the lower price of raw material fluorite at a low level. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, the downstream air conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand has only decreased but not increased, and the price of domestic large enterprises has dropped to 14,000-15,000 yuan per ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, the on-site transaction price is lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, downstream demand is not improving, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly lower.

On September 10, the PX commodity index was 52.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.44% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 15.92% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 10th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily. Temporarily stable operation, due to the normal domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene in Asia rose by 8 US dollars/ton on September 9. The closing price is 768-770 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 787-789 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On September 9, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to $57.85 per barrel, an increase of $1.33. Brent crude oil futures rose to $62.59 per barrel, an increase of $1.05. According to the EIA on Thursday morning, Asian crude oil futures prices rose in the morning trading period. Inventory data were released later Thursday in the United States. Previously, the prices of both international benchmark crude oil futures contracts increased by more than $2 per barrel, and the trend of crude oil prices rose, which had a positive impact on downstream petrochemical products and temporarily stabilized the price trend of xylene market. Recently, the textile industry has maintained a low price, PTA price has risen slightly on the 10th day. The average price in East China is raised near 5300-5400 yuan/ton. As of the 9th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 97% and the polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%. Due to the limited support of planned overhaul to the market rebound, the trading atmosphere has declined. Traders dominate, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, downstream PTA market prices maintain low volatility, and it is expected that PX market prices will maintain low volatility in the short term.