I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of December 2, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 12775 yuan / ton, with the price rising 2.00% month on month and 4.07% year on year. The overall market is relatively strong.

II. Market analysis

Product: the domestic aggregate MDI market is stable, moderate and strong. North China and East China Wanhua cargo Negotiation: 12900-13000 yuan / ton; Shanghai cargo Negotiation: 12600-12700 yuan / ton; South China Wanhua cargo Negotiation: 12900 yuan / ton; Shanghai cargo Negotiation: 12500-12600 yuan / ton. At present, the spot market is tightening, the operators are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the factory price is stable, so the operators have enough confidence in the future market.

In terms of market, the aggregate MDI market in North China and Shandong moved up and steady. The spot market is tightening, the operators are reluctant to sell at low prices, the downstream just need to follow up is limited, and the market high-level trading is not smooth. East China aggregate MDI market moved up in stability. Wanhua new moon news came out, the market is waiting for more news from other enterprises, but due to the tight spot, the operators are reluctant to sell at low prices, the downstream market is cautious, and the market is short of trading volume. South China aggregate MDI market range consolidation. There is no obvious change in the market fundamentals. The market is more cautious to wait for the price and quantity news of other enterprises. The industry is steadfast to discuss the shipment and the downstream is cautious to receive the offer.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, pure benzene Market in Asia: in January, the sales volume was 660 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: the pure benzene Market in East China maintains a firm operation. The negotiation reference is 5400-5450 yuan / ton, the high selling price is insisted, and the far monthly negotiation is 5200-5300 yuan / ton. Part of the purchase is waiting and waiting, responding to the lack of high-end products, and the enthusiasm for goods preparation is limited.

Aniline: aniline factory has a high inventory, and the terminal factory is competitive to promote shipment. Raw materials pure benzene high price, may rise, the cost side has good support. The price is expected to be stable, with reference to 6800-6900 yuan / ton for East China and 6640 yuan / ton for North China.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, enterprises have less market volume; suppliers intend to stabilize the market. In terms of bad news, the terminal just needs to be improved to a limited extent; some downstream still have pre inventory, mainly digesting inventory. MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market is stable, moderate and strong.

I. price trend

According to the data of business agency, the price of dry process aluminum fluoride in China fell slightly in November, with the average market price of 9600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9166 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 4.51%.

II. Market analysis

In November, the price of aluminum fluoride continued to decline, and some aluminum fluoride manufacturers lowered the factory price: at present, the price of aluminum fluoride in Henan is 8600-9300 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is 8500-9300 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 9500 yuan / ton, that of Shandong LUZHENG Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10200 yuan / ton, and that of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8500 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the upper reaches has increased. As of the end of the month, the ex factory price of hydrofluoric acid is 9970 yuan / ton, and the overall increase of hydrofluoric acid in November is 3.42%. At present, the starting load of the manufacturer’s production units is still not high, and the supply capacity of the market sources has declined. The downstream air-conditioning manufacturers maintain, and the demand changes little, but the supply is tight. The mainstream price of large domestic enterprises has risen to 13500-14500 Yuan / ton. In the first half of November, the price of aluminum fluoride was reduced as a whole. In the second half of November, only the factory price of each aluminum fluoride manufacturer was reduced by 200 yuan / ton. The market price of aluminum fluoride in the downstream did not rise with the price of hydrofluoric acid in the upstream. In November, the price of aluminum fluoride fell first and then stabilized.

III. future forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry in the chemical branch of business society think that: the price of upstream raw materials hydrofluoric acid has stopped falling and turned up, and the market price of aluminum fluoride has also stopped falling. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will maintain stable operation in December.

I. price trend

Yellow phosphorus prices fell in November, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 19166.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 18800 yuan / ton.

On November 27, the yellow phosphorus commodity index was 118.99, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.27% from 161.39 (2019-07-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 32.24% from 89.98, the lowest point on September 5, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: in November, the price of yellow phosphorus showed a downward trend. On 18th, due to the one week environmental protection inspection conducted by Yunnan Guichuan, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus was slightly reduced and the price was slightly increased. As of the 28th day, the average price was about 18800 yuan / ton. On the whole, the price of yellow phosphorus has not changed much. The price has declined slightly, but the price is still high. According to the inspection by the central environmental protection group of Yunnan Province, the enterprises in Yunnan Province started to decline, and the market supply was tight. Some enterprises mainly supply early orders, and the quotation for foreign reports was suspended. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 18800-19000 yuan / ton. The main quotation in Sichuan is about 18500-19000 yuan / ton. The overall market is short of spot goods, most traders are mainly wait-and-see, they are more cautious in taking goods, the market demand is relatively light, downstream users take them as they use them, and the current high price of yellow phosphorus is mainly consolidated.

Industry chain: according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic coke market mentality has recovered recently, but the market as a whole remains stable. The mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market of Sichuan Province is 1980 yuan / ton, and that in Liupanshui coke market of Guizhou Province is 2220 yuan / ton. This month, the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to run in a downturn. At the beginning of the month, prices in some regions were slightly adjusted. Prices of some mining enterprises in Guizhou and other regions remained at a high level. Prices of phosphorus mining enterprises in a small part of Kaiyang region were slightly lower due to the impact of demand, and prices remained stable in the past two weeks. The average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is 416.67 yuan / ton. The downstream phosphoric acid and phosphate enterprises stop more, the market fluctuation is not obvious, the user’s replenishment enthusiasm is not high, and the market trading is light. There is a strong wait-and-see mood among enterprises. In the short term, the market price of phosphoric acid is mainly based on price structure, and the mainstream price is 5100-5600 yuan / ton.

On November 27, the yellow phosphorus industry chain index was 105.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.35% from 124.27 (2019-07-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 32.00% from 79.69, the lowest point on October 7, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

III. future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business cooperation, this month’s yellow phosphorus enterprises are limited in driving, the overall market of yellow phosphorus is light in trading and investment, and the downstream demand is insufficient. Who will take it with you? Most traders are mainly wait-and-see. They are more cautious in taking the goods, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. It is expected that the high price of yellow phosphorus will be mainly consolidated.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic gold spot on 27th was 330.86 yuan / g, up 0.49% compared with 329.25 yuan / G on 26th, 343.30 yuan / g, down 3.62% compared with the monthly peak (November 1), and 284.10 yuan / g, up 16.46% compared with the price at the beginning of the year (01.01).

On November 27, the spot price of silver in China was 4112.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 1.39% compared with the spot price of 4056.33 yuan / kg on November 26; on November 1, the spot price of silver was 4367 yuan / kg, a decrease of 5.82%; on November 1, the spot price of silver was 3617.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 13.68%.

Main influencing factors

1. China US trade negotiations are expected to be digested in advance

On the morning of November 26, Liu He, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council and China’s leader of the China US comprehensive economic dialogue, spoke with us trade representative lait Heze and finance minister mu nuqin. The two sides discussed the resolution of each other’s core concerns, reached consensus on the resolution of relevant issues, and agreed to maintain communication on the remaining issues of the first phase of the agreement and consultation. The first phase of the trade agreement between China and the United States is expected, with feedback from the market on the 26th, providing room for today’s slight price rebound.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid is stable. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is maintained at 9600 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is stable. However, due to the decrease of fluorite market supply and the improvement of refrigerant market in the near future, the market price of hydrofluoric acid may usher in a “turning point”.

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid is stable. In the near future, the on-site manufacturers are generally on the way. The operating rate of downstream refrigerant industry has not changed much. For domestic hydrofluoric acid market, on-demand procurement, coupled with the high operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid plant, the domestic spot supply is normal, and the domestic price trend is mainly stable. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in South China is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and in North China The price of hydrofluoric acid is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. In recent years, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is stable, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is general, and the market price in the market remains low, but some manufacturers reflect that there is a trend of rising in the near future. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian is about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, in Shandong is 9000-10000 yuan / ton, in Jiangxi is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable temporarily.

In the near future, the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid remains high. The ex factory price of fluorite in China is 2861.11 yuan / ton. The domestic fluorite plant is in normal operation. The mine and flotation plant in the field are in normal operation. The supply of fluorite in the field is normal. In the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream remains low. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the goods in the fluorite field are generally sold, and the price trend of fluorite market is stable temporarily. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not improved, resulting in a temporary stable market price trend. The high price of fluorite brings certain cost support to the hydrofluoric acid market, and the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is stable. But in the near future, fluorite supply has decreased, fluorite prices remain high, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid may be affected.

In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has maintained a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price has slightly increased, the downstream market has improved, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market may usher in a “turning point”.

In recent years, the operating rate of domestic refrigerant unit has not changed much, but the quotation of downstream refrigerant has increased. In addition, the supply of fluorite has decreased in recent years, and fluorite price remains high, which has a certain positive support for the market price of hydrofluoric acid. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in business association, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may rise slightly in the future.