1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of January 13, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5520 yuan / ton, which was 0.36% lower than that of the same period last month and 4.15% higher than that of the same period last year. The domestic ethanol market continued to rise, and the market in some regions was strong.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

2、 Market analysis

 

Product: stable operation of domestic alcohol market. Henan’s market is stable with stable price; Northeast’s market is weak with stable price; Shandong’s short-term logistics has little impact on the price; East China’s current supply is small with high market price supported by the supply. The downstream demand in Guangxi continues to slow down, the enterprise quotation is stable, a small number of customers just need to maintain procurement; the market price in Guangdong before the Spring Festival is still dominated by high price consolidation; the enterprise quotation in Anhui is still relatively stable, the overall market performance is light, and the enterprises in other regions have little change.

 

Industry chain: corn: the price of corn has been slightly adjusted during the stabilization. Before and after the lunar new year, the grain sales of grass-roots growers will be finished, and the marketable time of the market will be tightened again, so it is difficult for the spot mainstream market to fluctuate substantially. The period of grain sales before the festival is shortened, farmers are faced with the demand of cash realization and loan repayment before the festival, and the grass-roots grain sales in the main production area have increased. Some processing enterprises will end their periodic stock preparation, and the purchase and sale will turn to light. The spot price is still in the weak adjustment stage, but the signs of bottoming have been shown. We still believe that the probability of corn prices continuing to be weak in the short term is on the high side, and this prediction will not change for the time being. Due to the pulling effect of stock up demand before the Spring Festival, it is expected that corn prices will be stable around the first and middle of January.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

Ethyl acetate: the domestic market of ethyl acetate continued to be stable, the raw material acetic acid rose and then stabilized, and the cost of ethyl acetate was dispersed. The substantial demand for ethyl acetate in the downstream is weak, but the falling price does not attract the downstream purchase. The market is passive and the transaction is light and stalemate. Some ethyl acetate manufacturers stop during the Spring Festival, and the overall social inventory growth is slow. It is expected that the market of ethyl acetate will be stable next week.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Business alcohol analysts expect that the short-term domestic ethanol market finishing operation. Large factories in Northeast China have low inventory and stable shipment; however, small factories have high inventory, positive shipment mentality and weak market price due to the limitation of transportation; East China’s arrival in Hong Kong in January is not large, production enterprises start less, market supply is limited, and downstream demand is limited, so it is expected that the short-term market will remain in order; Henan Province’s production enterprises will be loaded due to the reduction of liquor and chemical industry Under normal operation, short-term market weakness is expected to be consolidated. At present, the production of existing devices in Guangxi is stable, but the Spring Festival is approaching, and the downstream rigid demand is slightly insufficient. Some enterprises have low inventory price before the festival, and it is expected that the short-term market will be weak and stable. At present, the production enterprises in Guangdong Province have less startup of devices, the downstream maintains rigid demand procurement, and the supply side is favorable for the market price, and the market price is expected to be high. Hubei has enterprise parking plan, and the market is expected to be high The price is high and stable; the downstream demand in Anhui and Sichuan is close to the end, the inventory of enterprises is not high, and the market price is expected to be stable.

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1、 Price trend:

 

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, this week’s o-xylene Sinopec contract quotation was stable, and the o-xylene market remained stable. As of January 11, the contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 6300.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of o-xylene at the beginning of the week. The price is 7.35% lower than that of the same period last year.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL FIBER

2、 Market analysis:

 

External offer

 

Commodity name quotation type port price time

O-xylene FOB US $848.92/t in the Gulf of Mexico 2020-1-10

O-xylene CFR China $835.00/t 2020-1-10

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia 825.00 USD / ton 2020-1-10

O-xylene FOB South Korea $804.00/t 2020-1-10

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp $860.00/t 2020-1-10

O-xylene FOB US Gulf 843.41 USD / ton 2020-1-3

O-xylene CFR China 789.00 USD / ton 2020-1-3

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia 785.00 USD / ton 2020-1-3

O-xylene FOB South Korea 758.00 USD / ton 2020-1-3

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp $860.00/t 2020-1-3

As can be seen from the table, the price of o-benzene in the external market rose sharply this week. On January 10, this week’s price of benzene in China was US $835 / T, 46 / T higher than that of the previous week’s price of 789 / T on January 3; the price of benzene in South Korea and Southeast Asia increased by US $46 / T and US $40 / T in half. This week, the external price of ortho benzene rose sharply, the price of imported ortho benzene rose, the price of port ortho benzene rose, the port inventory is still at a low level, and the overall external price rise is more favorable for the future market ortho benzene.

 

Factor analysis of industrial chain

 

PVA FIBER

It can be seen from the rise and fall chart of the industrial chain of o-benzene that the price of mixed xylene rose this week, the price of raw materials of o-benzene rose, the profit of o-benzene production fell, and the pressure of o-benzene rise increased. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly, the downstream demand was general, the growth momentum of ortho benzene was small, and the downward pressure remained. In the future, the market of benzenes is both positive and negative.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene of business association, the price of o-xylene raw materials rose this week, the cost of o-xylene increased, the pressure of o-xylene rising was great, and the external quotation rose sharply, driving the domestic o-xylene market; in the downstream, the phthalic anhydride market fell, and the pressure of o-xylene falling still had little momentum to rise; as the Spring Festival approached, the enthusiasm of downstream customers to prepare goods rose, and the downstream demand rose, In the future, the growth momentum of orthobenzene increased. On the whole, the rising power and falling pressure of ortho benzene Market in the future are increased, while the strong shock and stability of ortho benzene Market in the future are mainly maintained, and there is a larger rising power at the same time.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on December 24 was 5316.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous day, up 23.17% compared with the same period last year. On January 8, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 116.21, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.89% from the highest point in the cycle of 128.96 (2019-07-25), and up 27.49% from the lowest point of 91.15 on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

2、 Market analysis

 

Product: the phosphoric acid market is in a weak and stable operation in the near future. The support of yellow phosphorus at the raw material end is weakened, the downstream rigid demand is limited, the actual trading is average, the enterprise’s goods are acceptable, and the market is weak as a whole. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of January 9, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5316.67 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 4700-5700 yuan / ton. The enterprise adjusted the price according to itself.

 

Industrial chain: in recent years, the phosphorus ore market has continued to maintain stable consolidation, weak operation, and the supply of goods is basically normal. It is estimated that the phosphorus ore market will not improve in a short period of time, and it is still weak and stable. Under the condition of low start-up rate, yellow phosphorus spot is tight, and the adjustment space of yellow phosphorus is still limited near the end of the year.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on January 8, 2020, among which the top three commodities are bisphenol A (4.94%), acetic acid (2.01%) and toluene (1.64%). There are 8 kinds of commodities with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products were sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%), ethyl acetate (- 3.39%) and butanone (- 2.59%). The average price of this day is 0.02%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of business and social chemical branch, at present, the price of phosphoric acid is mainly stable and consolidated, the support of raw material end is limited, and the terminal demand is general. Near the end of the year, it is expected that the price of phosphoric acid is still mainly stable and stable, so it is difficult to improve.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the commodity list of business association, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong Province rose slightly on January 8, 2020. The average price of formaldehyde on January 7, 2020 was 1046.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of formaldehyde on January 8, 2020 was 1053.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.64%. The current price is 8.80% lower than last year.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

2、 Market analysis

 

Products: the market price of formaldehyde in China has risen slightly. As of August 8, the main factory quotation of Hebei is about 980 yuan / ton, that of South China is about 1180 yuan / ton, that of Shandong is about 1000 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu is about 1180 yuan / ton. The annual output of 120000 tons formaldehyde plant in Linyi Yinhe, Shandong Province has been restarted, with the formaldehyde content of 36.7-37%. Hebei Kaiyue formaldehyde plant of 400000 tons / year was shut down for maintenance. Formaldehyde manufacturers are affected by environmental protection control device maintenance, formaldehyde market supply inventory decreased, the price slightly increased.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

Industrial chain: in recent days, the domestic methanol market has stopped falling and rebounded; in terms of main production areas, Guanzhong general has increased by 20-30 yuan / ton to 1780-1860 yuan / ton, with smooth shipment and most enterprises stopping selling; the Northern Line of Inner Mongolia has concentrated at 1730-1750 yuan / ton; Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Henan and other places have also kept pace with the increase. Support formaldehyde. The downstream market started to be sluggish, with general demand. The price of formaldehyde increased slightly while the rigid demand for procurement was maintained.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Recently, methanol in the upstream continues to rise, and the production cost of formaldehyde enterprises increases. However, due to the impact of environmental protection, the operating rate in the downstream is general, procurement is limited, and the delivery pressure of formaldehyde manufacturers is large. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business society expect that the domestic formaldehyde price or low level consolidation is the main trend in the near future.

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On January 6, the fluorite commodity index was 101.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.34% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 106.38% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite is temporarily stable. As of the 7th day, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2894.44 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic fluorite device has been started normally, the mine and flotation device in the field have been started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field has been normal, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has increased slightly in recent years. For the purchase on demand in fluorite market, the goods in the fluorite field are generally sold, and the price trend of fluorite market is temporarily stable. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is normal, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not getting better, which leads to the market price maintaining volatility. As of July 7, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton. The price trend of fluorite was stable temporarily.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the downstream of fluorite has been fluctuating. As of the 7th day, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in China was 10240 yuan / ton. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, in recent years, the operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, and the demand for fluorite is normal, and the price of fluorite has been fluctuating at a low level. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal is temporarily stable. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The price trend of R22 in the domestic refrigerant market is volatile. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production units is still not high, and the supply capacity of the market’s source of goods has declined. The downstream air-conditioning manufacturer has maintained, but the demand has not changed much, but the supply is tight. The price of large domestic enterprises is mainstream Up to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market is temporarily stable, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains at a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price remains volatile, and the downstream market changes little. In addition, the recent price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market, the fluorite market may be supported by favorable conditions.

 

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry has not changed much, and the supply of fluorite in the north is a little tight. In addition, the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable in the near future. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may be stable.

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