On February 11, 2020, the factory cash price of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main domestic production areas was stable, and there were not many domestic quotation enterprises. Because the protection and disinfection materials of the front-line workers were difficult to guarantee, there were not many enterprises in various regions that met the comprehensive return to work standard. At present, the cross regional transportation capacity is weak, the domestic delivery and investment is not much, and the home-based inquiry is mainly.

 

According to the follow-up information of the business agency, Shaanxi dongxinyuan chemical metal magnesium is currently in a state of shutdown; Shaanxi Tianyu magnesium Group Co., Ltd. is preparing for resumption of work approval; Yulin Tianlong magnesium industry is reducing production and operation due to transportation problems; traders are unable to enter the market due to transportation problems, and it is difficult for them to enter the market. At present, domestic magnesium market is in a state of price or not, and the situation of the epidemic situation changes in the later period.

 

Magnesium market trend

 

 

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic magnesium ingot on February 11, 2020 is 14083.33 yuan / ton, and the recent price is relatively stable. Due to the lack of trading volume, some manufacturers have quoted 14500 yuan / ton.

 

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After the Spring Festival, there are few quoted enterprises in the market. Due to the problems of raw material reserve, transportation and labor safety after the Spring Festival, it is difficult to guarantee the overall normal production in the near future, and the output of the production end is not much; the sales end is difficult to enter the market due to the transportation problems, and the actual receiving transactions are almost stagnant. Manufacturers have a low willingness to offer and wait for the market trend.

 

Expected market outlook

 

With the change of commencement policy, it is expected that it will take some time to fully commence. At present, the downstream alloy manufacturers and magnesium powder manufacturers have prepared goods years ago, and the downstream raw material inventory has accumulated to a certain extent. With the effect of return to work convergence, it is expected that the upstream and downstream magnesium ingots will enter the stage of supply and demand stalemate. In the later stage, pay attention to the change of upstream and downstream commencement rhythm.

 

Data review in 2019

 

Production end:

 

According to the preliminary statistical data of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, 763900 tons of original magnesium were produced by the Communist Party of China from January to November 2019, an increase of 11.16% year on year. Among them, the cumulative production in Shaanxi is 465900 tons, up 19.01% year on year; the cumulative production in Shanxi is 108500 tons, up 13.41% year on year; the cumulative production in Ningxia is 51500 tons, down 18.51% year on year.

 

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According to relevant statistical data, it is estimated that the domestic original magnesium output in 2019 will be about 927700 tons.

 

Consumer end:

 

According to relevant statistics, the domestic consumption is 472300 tons. In terms of import and export, it is estimated that 446500 tons of various magnesium products will be exported. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, from January to November 2019, China exported 409300 tons of various magnesium products, a year-on-year increase of 9.29% and a cumulative amount of US $1.048 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.08%. Among them, the total export of magnesium ingot is 217900 tons, up 14.54% year on year; the total export of magnesium alloy is 100900 tons, down 0.61% year on year; the total export of magnesium powder is 77900 tons, up 6.88% year on year.

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According to statistics, the market price of phthalic anhydride in this week declined. As of the end of the week, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride by ortho phthalic method was 5962.5 yuan / ton, down 3.25% from 6162.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 15.63% year on year.

 

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This week, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride fell, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China fell, the downstream factories maintained rigid purchase, the factory inventory pressure increased, the high-end transaction was blocked, the transportation during the epidemic was more difficult, the domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers’ delivery situation was not ideal, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride declined. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring method and naphthalene method is 5700-6000 yuan / ton and 5600-5800 yuan / ton respectively; in North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 5900-6200 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers’ prices in the site are mainly reduced, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is mainly on demand, the wait-and-see state is relatively strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is normal, and some enterprises are under the situation The market price of phthalic anhydride keeps falling.

 

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In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec has dropped by 500 yuan / ton to 5800 yuan / ton. The import price of phthalic acid in port area has declined and the quotation has declined. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in port area has decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the quotation of phthalic acid external market has declined. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. Affected by the sharp decline of upstream raw material price of phthalic acid, the market price of phthalic anhydride has fallen.

 

This week, the downstream DOP price fell slightly, the price of isooctanol fell in shock, the cost of DOP raw materials fell in shock, the start-up of DOP enterprises was basically normal, the start-up rate fell, during the anti epidemic period, logistics was limited, transportation was difficult, DOP supply was normal, DOP manufacturers’ inventory was high. The price of DOP fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was poor, the price of downstream PVC fluctuated and remained stable, and the equipment of PVC enterprises started at a low level. The main quotation in DOP market is about 7100-7500 yuan / ton, and the downstream price trend is declining. In addition, the upstream ox price has fallen. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will remain depressed in the later stage, with the price around 5900 yuan / ton.

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According to the price trend chart of fluorite, the price trend of fluorite is clearly rising. According to statistics, the average price of domestic fluorite as of February 3 is 2900 yuan / ton, and the price trend of domestic fluorite is slightly rising. According to statistics, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2800-3000 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2800-3100 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2800-3100 yuan / ton The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2900-3100 yuan / ton.

 

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In recent years, the price trend of fluorite in China has increased slightly. First, affected by the epidemic situation, fluorite production in some areas has been limited, the operating rate of fluorite has declined, and some domestic mines and flotation units have been shut down, which makes the spot supply of fluorite in the site tight, and the price of fluorite in China has increased slightly. Second, the northern fluorite manufacturers started less, the domestic supply of fluorite decreased, the price of fluorite in the site was supported to a certain extent, and the price of fluorite went up. Third, the price of hydrofluoric acid and the market of refrigerants in the lower reaches have improved recently, which has a certain positive impact on the domestic fluorite market, and the domestic fluorite price has increased. However, as the temperature warms up and some enterprises shut down continue to resume production, it is expected that the price of fluorite will continue to rise under great pressure.

 

The upstream and downstream market is general, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to rise.

 

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By the end of 3 days, the average price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market was 10330 yuan / ton. After the Spring Festival, the domestic market of hydrofluoric acid increased slightly. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian was 9500-10500 yuan / ton, that in Shandong was 10000-10500 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi was 10000-11000 yuan / ton, that in Inner Mongolia was 9500-10500 yuan / ton, and that in hydrofluoric acid market was about 9500-10500 yuan / ton Should be nervous, market prices rose slightly.

 

In recent years, the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China has declined to less than 50%. The enterprises report that the supply of spot hydrofluoric acid goods is tight. However, due to the impact of the epidemic situation, the transportation of hydrofluoric acid products is difficult, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is limited. In addition, the price of upstream raw material fluorite has a certain cost support, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly increased. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal is slightly light. At present, the automobile industry is in holiday, the domestic R22 supply is tight, the domestic refrigerant R22 market price trend is stable, the starting load of the manufacturer’s production device is still not high, the supply situation of the market supply is general, the downstream air conditioning manufacturer stops more, the demand changes little, and the price mainstream of the domestic large enterprises rises to 15500-18500 Yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is temporarily stable, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is general. However, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price remains stable, the downstream market changes little, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rises slightly. In addition, the production of fluorite enterprises is limited, and it is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the later period will be small in the short term Go up.

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1、 Price data:

 

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic bromine market in January was weak and stable, with weak market supply and demand. At the beginning of the month, the average price of bromine was about 30666 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of bromine was about 30444yuan / ton, down 0.72% in the month, down 13.14% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Cause analysis

 

Product: due to the Early Spring Festival holiday in 2020 and the fact that most bromine enterprises have entered the parking for maintenance after winter, the domestic bromine spot supply is relatively tight, but the downstream market demand is slightly weak, and the industry shows a weak trend of supply and demand. At present, the mainstream quotation of enterprises is between 29500-31000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is relatively soft.

 

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Industry chain: in January, the upstream market of bromine in China fluctuated, with the caustic soda market down 8.13% in the month and 581 yuan / ton at present; the soda ash market down 1.04% and 1550 yuan / ton at present; the sulfur market kept stable operation in the month and the price remained around 503 yuan / ton; the sulfuric acid market rose 6.68% in the month and 312 yuan / ton at present. In the downstream, the market performance of flame retardants is relatively low, the demand side support is insufficient, the pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates and other industries are on the low side, and the overall impact on bromine price is negative.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the bromine industry analysts of the business association, due to the operation of the new crown virus epidemic, the Spring Festival holiday has been extended, and the construction situation in various regions has declined. In addition, with the approaching of the two sessions, the bromine spot supply will be further reduced, as will the downstream situation. It is expected that the bromine market will maintain stable operation in the short term.

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Market Overview:

 

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According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province has been running steadily after a short rise. At present, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province is about 2570 yuan / ton.

 

Market analysis:

 

Product: at present, the dichloromethane market is in stable operation as a whole, and the inventory pressure is not large. Affected by the price rise of methanol and liquid chlorine before, the dichloromethane continues to rise slightly. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream market has entered the holiday one after another, with poor terminal demand and cold market trading. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2570 yuan / ton; in East China is about 2700-2800 yuan / ton; in Jiangxi, Liwen is about 3150 yuan / ton.

 

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Industry chain: in the upstream, the natural gas market is rising tentatively, and the actual transaction situation is flat. At present, it is about 3090 yuan / ton; in the methanol market, the methanol price is high and firm, and each region adjusts the price according to its own supply and demand and the downstream stocking rhythm, at present, it is about 2262 yuan / ton; in the liquid chlorine market, the supply is tight, and the enterprise has a strong attitude of pricing, and the transaction is flat, at present, it is about 300-500 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market is in weak and stable operation, and the market is basically closed before the festival, so there is little room for price adjustment; the pharmaceutical and agricultural market and solvent industry just need to be flat, and the price of chloroform is generally supported.

 

Future forecast:

 

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, the trade and investment in the industry are soft near the Spring Festival holiday, and the market performance is relatively cold due to the Limited Logistics and transportation, which is expected to be stable and volatile in the short term.

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