1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, the weak market of domestic methanol has a narrow upward trend. As of February 19, the average price of domestic methanol market is 1987 yuan / ton. Prices fell 12.15% month on month and 12.91% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the methanol production enterprises in the main production areas of Shaanxi and Mongolia are able to deliver goods temporarily, the traders are mainly responsible for receiving goods, some of them are connected with the bidding of the downstream enterprises, the transportation vehicles are in recovery, the downstream enterprises have no obvious changes in the construction, and some of them are mainly for replenishment. China US relations have been upgraded, and crude oil has been shaken at a low level. In the short term, the domestic methanol market price is mainly volatile.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: weak operation of domestic formaldehyde market. A small number of start-up enterprises offer stable temporarily, most enterprises have not yet started, the cost side is at a relatively low level, the downstream market starts in a low level, the demand is limited, and it is difficult to clinch a deal with a real order.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market is stable and weak. Part of the low-cost goods in the northwest hit the North China market. At present, it is free at high speed, and the delivery price is more advantageous than that of the local manufacturers in North China, thus opening the price range in North China market. Part of the lower reaches of the East China market were restarted, and the market demand stimulated low-cost competition among manufacturers, pushing the market transaction price down slightly. In South China market, the terminal demand is small and scattered, the market has not recovered, and the supplier is mainly providing stable offer temporarily. In the short term, the domestic acetic acid market demand gradually recovers, the automobile transportation aspect selectivity increases, each factory stock pressure is obvious, the passive competition shipment.

DME: the market of DME is weak and stable, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The mainstream price in Henan Province is 3020-3200 yuan / ton ex factory spot exchange, and the lower reaches are mostly purchased in small quantities according to demand, with general demand. In the aspect of civil gas, the price difference between gas and ether is narrowed, which supports DME.

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of business community: the delivery of methanol production enterprises in the northwest main production area is temporarily available; the number of vehicles is gradually increasing; the downstream construction changes are not significant temporarily. The methanol analysts of the business association predict that China’s methanol market may fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

On February 17, the PX commodity index was 50.40, the same as yesterday, down 50.78% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 10.65% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China is temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical is put into operation, other units are temporarily stable, and the operation rate of domestic p-xylene plant is stable About 70%, the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, but the recent crude oil price trend is volatile, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On February 17, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 6 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 727-729 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 747-749 US dollars / ton CFR China. More than 40% of PX in China needs to be imported. The rising price of external market has a certain positive impact on the market price of domestic Px, and the market price trend of PX is temporarily stable.

Brent crude oil futures rose to $57.67 a barrel, or $0.35 a barrel, after the New York Stock Exchange was closed for “President’s Day”. In its latest oil market report, the International Energy Agency revised its oil demand forecast substantially and predicted that consumption would actually shrink by 435000 barrels per day, the first significant year-on-year decline since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. Previously, the agency expected consumption to increase by 800000b / D over the same period last year. In the whole year of 2020, the International Energy Agency cut the growth rate of demand by 365 thousand barrels per day to 825 thousand barrels per day. This will be the lowest annual growth rate since 2011, slightly lower than the growth figure in 2019, and 2019 itself is a year of decline. The rise of crude oil price is good for domestic chemicals price, while the domestic p-xylene price trend is temporarily stable.

In terms of downstream PTA, the recent price has dropped slightly to the level of 4400-4500 yuan / ton. Affected by the sharp increase of production capacity, PTA’s price will be in a weak situation, and short processing fee is still the main operation idea. In the short term, PTA processing fee is at a very low level, while the upstream price is relatively resistant to decline due to the rise of crude oil, and the cost support appears. However, affected by the epidemic situation, the terminal weaving is basically in a state of stagnation. In the state of weak demand, PTA is difficult to form an effective rise. We think PTA is in a dilemma at present, or maintain the trend of low-level oscillation. Even with the support of cost, the price will rise by increasing the repair and processing fee, and the increase range is very limited. PTA market price will fall, and the trend of p-xylene price will be stable temporarily.

In recent years, crude oil price fluctuates, which has a certain negative impact on xylene market. In addition, there is no obvious improvement in downstream demand of the terminal. Business analysts believe that PX market price may remain low.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China continues to decline. As of February 17, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic method was 5750 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China continues to decline, the demand of plasticizer industry does not improve, and the market of phthalic anhydride is in a low state.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has continued to decline. Affected by the epidemic situation, the transportation of chemicals is limited. The inventory of some phthalic anhydride manufacturers has increased and the delivery situation is poor. In East China, the market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride has fallen, downstream factories have shut down a lot, factory inventory pressure has increased, and high-end transactions have been blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 5500-6000 yuan / ton and 5300-5600 yuan / ton respectively. In North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 5400-5800 yuan / ton. Most of the manufacturers in the site have price callback, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. The domestic phthalic anhydride plant starts normally, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient. In addition, under phthalic anhydride, the main flow of negotiation is 5400-5800 yuan / ton The demand for phthalic anhydride is not good, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride keeps falling.

In the near future, the execution price of phthalic anhydride upstream products in China on February 17 is 5800 yuan / ton. The import price of phthalic acid in the port area is slightly lower and the quotation is declining. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in the port is weak, the port inventory is increased, and the price of phthalic acid in the external market is lower. The actual transaction price is subject to the negotiation, and the detailed negotiation is made. The price of phthalic anhydride market is lower due to the decrease of upstream raw material phthalic acid price.

In the downstream, the price of DOP raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the cost of DOP raw material fell, DOP enterprises started work normally, the operating rate dropped, during the anti epidemic period, logistics was limited, transportation was difficult, DOP supply was normal, DOP manufacturers’ inventory was high. The price of DOP fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was poor, the price of downstream PVC fluctuated and remained stable, and the equipment of PVC enterprises started at a low level. The main quotation in DOP market is about 7100-7500 yuan / ton, and the price trend in the downstream is slightly down. In addition, the price of ox in the upstream is down. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a slightly down trend in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market continued to decline this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2155 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 1985 yuan / ton, down 7.89% in the week. The price fell 11.88% on a month on month basis, down 10.67% on a year-on-year basis.

2、 Market analysis

Products: due to the lack of logistics and the slow resumption of downstream methanol enterprises after the festival, although the domestic methanol enterprises have started to work, the methanol market is still in a pattern of oversupply, especially in the northwest region where methanol needs to be exported in large quantities. The factory inventory is gradually increasing and the sales pressure is prominent. This week, the price in Inner Mongolia fell to 1400-1530 yuan / ton, and some fell by 250 yuan / ton. The port’s methanol meijinpan has not heard the actual single negotiation yet. The paper goods offer in early Zhou and far in the month discussed the fixed price offer of non Iraqi goods of 248-251.5 US dollars / ton. At present, in addition to the stable demand of MTO factory, other demands are relatively bleak. The dollar price holders say that the current supply of us gold plate is limited, so they wait and see.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market is light, and the overall situation is still in a large-scale shutdown. The downstream market is in a state of shutdown, the upstream methanol market continues to fluctuate and fall, and the cost and demand are difficult to be favorable. In addition, the transportation is limited everywhere, so there is no transaction in the market. Under the influence of the overall negative, the short-term formaldehyde market is difficult to improve and will remain weak.

Acetic acid: this week, the domestic acetic acid market is light and stalemate. Due to the limited automobile transportation in the market, limited trading and investment among regions, the inventory of acetic acid manufacturers keeps growing, while the start-up of the downstream acetic acid ester industry continues to be low, all the parking manufacturers are delayed to restart, and the start-up of PTA industry is also slowly declining, which leads to the substantial positive and weak market demand.

Dimethyl ether: the domestic market price of dimethyl ether is stable as a whole this week, and the prices of individual enterprises are adjusted flexibly. According to statistics, the overall operation of dimethyl ether in China this week was about 4.85%, down 5.49% and 53.09% from last week. The overall low-level operation of domestic construction, even though the market traffic is not convenient and the actual transaction is less, the enterprise quotation is still weak and stable. The main reference price in Henan Province is 3100-3150 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, it is difficult to purchase raw materials and sell costs for methanol plants, and the production load of some methanol production enterprises is reduced; in Iran, the methanol plant shut down due to gas restriction at the early stage is still not recovered, and it is expected that the import volume will continue to decline in February. On the negative side, since the Spring Festival, domestic methanol downstream products have shown different performances, and the overall demand has shown a downward trend. Except for the smooth commencement of acetic acid, DMF and other downstream products, the rest have decreased to varying degrees; the commencement of methanol to olefin enterprises has slightly decreased, and the unit load of Jiutai, Zhongtian hechuang and ningxiabaofeng in Inner Mongolia has decreased by 20-30%; the other two sets of MTO units in the port have maintenance plans in late February. During the Spring Festival, most of the methanol enterprises are in normal production, while the traditional demand falls to the freezing point of the year. Due to public safety emergencies, most of the downstream methanol enterprises that have stopped are not back to work, and the logistics recovery is very slow. The pressure on the raw material procurement and finished product sales of the downstream methanol enterprises is prominent. After the festival, the main downstream start-ups are generally reduced by 7-40%, such as acetic acid, MTO, MTBE, etc., which makes the domestic methanol demand snow Add frost on the market; although the start-up of methanol enterprises has been reduced by about 10%, they are still in the pattern of oversupply. The methanol analysts of the business association predict that the short-term methanol trend is still declining, but the transaction price of many places falls below the cost line, and the decline is expected to slow down.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the price of chloroform in Shandong increased slightly. The average price at the beginning of the month was about 2000 yuan / ton. As of February 12, the price was 2050 yuan / ton, up 2.5% per day.

2、 Cause analysis

Product reasons: novel coronavirus pneumonia is affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic after the Spring Festival. Besides the parking of Jinmao plant in Dongying, the production of chloroform in Shandong area has generally started about 5. Due to limited transportation, the shipment of enterprises is not smooth, the pressure of the warehouse is increasing. On the 12 day, Shandong Jinling has completely stopped, and the spot supply of the market has further declined, and the enterprise immediately increases the offer. Before that, the quotation in Shandong was about 2050 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen was about 2150 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu was about 2900 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the methanol market is not well started, mainly consuming inventory, and the overall demand is poor. At present, it is about 2147 yuan / ton; in the liquid chlorine market, the start-up is low, and the spot supply is tight, at present, it is about 300-500 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market is basically closed, with stable price operation; the pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry are not well started, with poor rigid demand and insufficient support for the price of chloroform.

3、 Future forecast

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, affected by the epidemic situation of new crown virus, domestic chloroform enterprises have difficulty in shipping and obvious storage pressure. Affected by the overall shutdown of Jinling, the spot supply has declined to a certain extent, and it is expected that the market price will fluctuate in a short time.