Price trend of pure benzene in 2019

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the overall trend of pure benzene in 2019 is fluctuating. As of December 19, the average price of mainstream pure benzene production enterprises was 5760 yuan / ton, up 1360 yuan / ton or 30.91% compared with 4400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 4).

 

The lowest average price of the listing price of pure benzene enterprises in the whole year is from April 3 to April 8, with a price of 4200 yuan / ton; the highest average price is from September 18 to September 22, with a price of 5870 yuan / ton, with a price difference of 1670 yuan / ton.

 

From the above figure, there are four obvious rising stages of pure benzene.

 

First stage up and down:

 

The average listing price of pure benzene enterprises rose from 4400 yuan / ton at the beginning of January (January 4) to 4930 yuan / ton at the highest price on February 26, an increase of 12.05%. From March 4 to April 4, it reached the lowest price of 4200 yuan / ton, down 14.81%

 

In January and February, the port inventory of pure benzene was higher than 200000 tons, and the downstream product profit was high, the unit operation rate was good, and the demand for pure benzene was good.

 

Affected by the water incident on March 21, the safety committee of the State Council issued an emergency notice to comprehensively carry out the centralized investigation and treatment of potential safety hazards of hazardous chemicals. Some chemical enterprises are temporarily shut down due to the impact. The downstream aniline production involves nitrification reaction, there are many enterprises with limited production and stop, and the demand for pure benzene is limited.

 

Second stage up and down:

 

On June 10, the listing price of pure benzene enterprises rose rapidly. On June 10, the average price of 4436 yuan / ton rose to the highest price of 5240.2 yuan / ton on July 19, an increase of 18.13%. From July 26 to August 12, it reached the lowest price of 5025 yuan / ton, down 4.11%

 

In the middle of June, the domestic pure benzene port inventory began to drop sharply, and the downstream styrene was good to stimulate, so the price of pure benzene began to rise. By July, there was a supply gap of pure benzene in the United States, which resulted in a huge price gap between the United States and South Korea. A large number of South Korean sources turned to the United States for arbitrage, resulting in a sharp drop in the export of pure benzene to China, stimulating domestic prices to continue to rise.

 

In the later period, the external market weakened and the downstream market was weak, which brought negative impact.

 

Third stage up and down:

 

The third phase of the increase followed the end of the second phase. On August 14 (average price: 5025 yuan / ton), it rose to the highest price of 5870 yuan / ton on September 18, an increase of 16.82%. From September 22 to October 31, it reached the lowest price of 5260 yuan / ton, down 10.39%

 

The port inventory of pure benzene continued to decline, and the spot supply of pure benzene market was tight. In addition, the Saudi incident in September triggered a sharp rise in crude oil, which led to a sharp rise in pure benzene.

 

At the end of September, the impact of Saudi Arabia incident subsided, crude oil and external market fell; and the downstream environmental protection inspection, some factories stopped production and limited production, just in short supply, the market fell back. After the festival, the supply of hydrogenated benzene increased, and the coking industry continued to break through the new low, which had a great impact on pure benzene.

 

The fourth stage of growth:

 

December 8 (average price 5300 yuan / ton) began to rise, as of December 20, the price was 5760 yuan / ton, up 8.68%.

 

The port inventory of pure benzene broke through a new low and kept below 100000 tons. The market negotiation atmosphere improved, the spot supply of pure benzene was tight, and the price picked up.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

Crude oil soars in 2019:

 

As of December 20, 2019, the annual increase of international oil price is more than 30%.

 

 

Brent oil price rose 35.41% in the first quarter, fell 2.71% in the second quarter, rose 2.01% in the third quarter and rose 10.78% in the fourth quarter. The year-round increase was 34.39%.

 

WTI oil prices rose 32.19% in the first quarter, 2.92% in the second quarter, 3.28% in the third quarter and 11.97% in the fourth quarter. The year-round increase was 32.54%.

 

In 2019, the international oil market is under the background of Sino US trade war and oil economic slowdown. OPEC’s production reduction has been twists and turns, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have deepened. From the perspective of the future market, there are two major factors affecting the international oil price in 2020: 1. The implementation of OPEC + production reduction; 2. The actual decline of crude oil demand brought about by the global economic cooling. We should also continue to pay attention to the possible variables in the global trade environment.

 

In 2019, pure benzene port inventory continued to decrease:

 

At the beginning of 2019, the port inventory of pure benzene was about 200000 tons, and by December 20, 2019, the port inventory of pure benzene was about 82000 tons, a decrease of 118000 tons, or 59%.

 

In the first quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene increased. At the beginning of the quarter, the port inventory was about 200000 tons, and at the end of the quarter, it was about 247000 tons. In the first quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene increased by 47000 tons, or 23.5%.

 

In the second quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene decreased, about 211000 tons at the end of the quarter. In the second quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 36000 tons or 14.57%.

 

In the third quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene decreased significantly, with 147000 tons at the end of the quarter. In the third quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 64000 tons or 30.33%.

 

In the fourth quarter, the port inventory of pure benzene continued to decline, and the port inventory at the end of the quarter was about 82000 tons. In the fourth quarter, pure benzene port inventory decreased by 65000 tons, a decrease of 44.22%.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

Downstream consumption of pure benzene:

 

In the past five years, the downstream products of pure benzene have developed rapidly, such as styrene and caprolactam, aniline and adipic acid, and phenol ketone. As the largest downstream of pure benzene, styrene is widely used in the production of plastics and other products, and its end products are mostly used in the field of people’s livelihood. With the continuous development of domestic economic situation, the demand for styrene is increasing day by day, which promotes the domestic styrene production capacity to expand year by year, and the demand for pure benzene will continue to increase. In 2019, the downstream aniline plant will be shut down permanently, and the demand for pure benzene will decrease to some extent, but the overall demand is relatively stable.

 

Future forecast:

In 2020, the price of pure benzene mainly focuses on crude oil, external pure benzene and downstream demand. At present, crude oil is supported by OPEC’s deepening production reduction and the improvement of Sino-U.S. trade relations. The demand for downstream styrene and other products is strong, the production capacity is likely to continue to increase, and the demand for pure benzene will continue to increase. So at present, it is very difficult for the price of pure benzene in 2020 to appear the situation in the first quarter of 2019. In the later stage, the price will continue to maintain a high level of shock or rise.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on December 24, the domestic phosphorus ore market was mainly operated in a cold way, and some areas were explored in a small fluctuation. Based on several sample areas, the average ex factory price of primary and high-end phosphorus ore was around 403 yuan / ton, which was about 15 yuan / ton lower than a week ago, down 3.02%.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Products: in recent years, the phosphorus ore market has continued to maintain stable consolidation and weak operation, and the supply of goods is basically normal. At present, as of December 24, the price of phosphorus ore in Guizhou Province has remained stable as a whole, and the price of low-grade phosphorus ore in some manufacturers has slightly decreased by 30-50 yuan / ton, the price of 30% grade mainstream phosphate ore factory / vehicle board with tax included reference is 330-410 yuan / ton, 28% grade mainstream phosphate ore factory / vehicle The reference price of plate tax is 300-350 yuan / ton; the reference price of 28% grade phosphate rock in Huifa, Fuquan, Guizhou is 310 yuan / ton, which is 40 yuan / ton lower than a week ago; the reference price of 30% grade phosphate rock is 350 yuan / ton, which is 40 yuan / ton lower than a week ago, which is 40 yuan / ton lower than a week ago; the main factory tax price of 30% grade phosphate rock in Hebei is 530 yuan / ton stable The price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore vehicle plate in Yunnan is about 275 yuan / ton, the price of 29% grade phosphate ore in Yunnan is about 320 yuan / ton, and the price of 30% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei is about 430-440 yuan / ton.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

Industry chain: the current yellow phosphorus market demand is weak, the on-site enterprises collect funds at the end of the year, collect funds at a low price, the market transaction price continues to decline, and the current acceptance transaction reference in Yunnan is 17400-17700 yuan / ton. The weakness of phosphoric acid market fell, mainly due to the low price of raw materials.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, in terms of the current market, most of the mining enterprises are in the state of limited production and guaranteed price. Some of the mining enterprises in Hubei Province have recently stopped operation, and the annual close is near. It is expected that the phosphorus ore market will not improve in a short period of time, and it is still weak and stable.

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Introduction: 2019 is about to pass, and the natural gas industry has experienced ups and downs this year. Looking back to 2019, a lot of major events happened in the natural gas industry, such as the establishment of the state pipe network company and the ventilation of the natural gas pipeline (North Section) of the East China Russia line, which had a significant impact on the industry. Let’s review the major events in 2019.

 

1、 China’s first deepwater self operated gas field started construction

 

According to the news on January 10, the semi submersible production platform of Lingshui 17-2 gas field development project, China’s first deep-water self operated gas field, has recently started construction at the Qingdao manufacturing site of offshore oil engineering. The gas field is expected to be put into production as soon as the end of the 13th five year plan, with an annual production of about 3 billion to 3.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas. This will effectively promote the development of deep-water oil and gas resources in the South China Sea, and is of great significance to the construction of the South China Sea atmospheric area and the protection of China’s energy security.

 

2、 Notice of the development and Reform Commission on adjusting the price of natural gas benchmark stations

 

According to the information of the national development and Reform Commission on March 29, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on adjusting the price of natural gas base gate station, which decided to adjust the price of natural gas base gate station of each province (District, city) from April 1, 2019, with a minimum of 1030 yuan / thousand cubic meters (including 9% value-added tax). The combination of residential and non residential natural gas prices does not only mean the price increase, which is also the only way to reform the natural gas price in China, to ensure the healthy and orderly development of the natural gas market in China.

 

3、 ExxonMobil signs a 20-year supply agreement with China

 

ExxonMobil, the world’s largest non-governmental oil and gas producer, announced recently that it had signed a 20-year LNG supply agreement with China’s Zhejiang energy group, with a contract volume of 1 million tons / year, CNN reported on April 23. It is reported that about 1.4 billion cubic meters of 1 million tons of liquefied natural gas will be vaporized, which is equivalent to the current one-year consumption of Zhejiang civil gas, and can meet the existing natural gas users in Zhejiang. As the world’s largest non-governmental oil and gas producer, ExxonMobil is the industry leader in many aspects of energy and petrochemical industry. The re entry of us natural gas into the Chinese market will undoubtedly squeeze Australia’s share in the Chinese natural gas market. Combined with Australia’s attitude towards Huawei issues or international decision-making, China’s purchase of us natural gas has more advantages than disadvantages in general.

 

4、 Major changes in natural gas pricing

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

According to the news on June 14, in order to improve the utilization efficiency of oil and gas pipeline network facilities, promote the safe and stable supply of oil and gas, standardize the opening behavior of oil and gas pipeline network facilities, and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the operation enterprises and users of oil and gas pipeline network facilities, the national development and Reform Commission, the national energy administration and other four departments formulated the supervision measures for the fair opening of oil and gas pipeline network facilities, which was implemented on May 24. It is pointed out in the measures that after the opening of oil and gas pipeline network facilities, the calorific value quality of mixed transmission natural gas is different. Adopting energy measurement method is conducive to accurate measurement, fairness, reduction of settlement disputes, healthy development of natural gas industry and internationalization of China’s natural gas market. The implementation of energy measurement can ensure the accuracy of natural gas trade measurement to the greatest extent, reduce measurement trade disputes, and ensure the economic and social benefits of enterprises.

 

5、 Increasing the exploration and development of oil and gas in China to ensure the national energy security

 

On July 8, PetroChina and Sinopec signed a joint research framework agreement on Tarim Basin, Junggar Basin and Sichuan Basin, involving 81 exploration rights and a total area of about 305800 square kilometers. On July 10, Sinopec and CNOOC (China) Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of CNOOC, signed a cooperation framework agreement on Bohai Bay, Beibu Bay, South Yellow Sea and Subei basin, involving 19 exploration rights of both sides and a total area of 26900 square kilometers. “Three barrels of oil” sign an agreement with each other, join hands with China’s oil and gas exploration, and allow foreign investment to enter China’s oil and gas exploration, which is conducive to promoting China’s oil and gas opening cooperation, increasing the intensity of oil and gas exploration and development, improving oil and gas exploration and development technology, and ensuring national energy security.

 

6、 The attack on Saudi oil fields has reduced the supply of natural gas by about 2 billion cubic meters

 

According to foreign media reports, Saudi Aramco was attacked by drones at around 8 a.m. Beijing time on September 14, resulting in a sharp reduction of 5.7 million barrels of special oil per day, close to 6% of the global oil production. Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz said on the 15th that the explosion of facilities on the 14th also reduced Saudi Arabia’s natural gas supply by about 2 billion cubic meters, resulting in Saudi Arabia’s ethane and liquefied natural gas Supply will shrink by 50%. But he said domestic supplies of fuel and water and electricity had not been affected.

 

7、 100 billion square gas field discovered in Tarim Oilfield

 

On October 3, the well test of Bozi 9 of Tarim Oilfield Company of PetroChina was successful, with high-yield industrial oil and gas flow, 418200 cubic meters of natural gas and 115.15 cubic meters of condensate per day. It has become another one hundred billion cubic meters gas field found in the south of Tianshan in one year, marking the substantial progress of the construction of the second trillion cubic meters atmospheric area in Tarim Oilfield. This indicates that substantial progress has been made in the construction of the second trillion square meter atmospheric area in Tarim Oilfield. The breakthrough of well Bozi 9 will not only add “bottom gas” for the construction of 30 million tons of large oil and gas fields in Tarim Oilfield, but also add new gas sources for the gas transmission from west to East and the gas consumption in South Xinjiang, so as to further guarantee the domestic natural gas supply.

 

PVA FIBER

8、 Crazy! LNG prices soared 23.7% in a single day

On October 30, the starting base price of Northwest feed gas auction was raised to 1.57 yuan / m3, and the final transaction price was 26-2.75 yuan / m3. The volume of registered orders in the auction was 100 million cubic meters, 80 million cubic meters less than that in the last time. Driven by the rising cost, the domestic LNG price rose sharply, nearly 1000 yuan rose overnight, and multiple terminals linked with the rise. The scope of this surge is almost national and large-scale, and it is also a large one-day increase in recent years. According to the data monitoring of the business association, the average price of LNG on October 30 was 3840 yuan / ton, and the average price on October 31 was 4750 yuan / ton, up nearly 1000 yuan per day, up 23.7%,

 

9、 China Russia east gas pipeline (North Section) officially put into operation for ventilation

 

On December 2, the natural gas pipeline (North Section) of the China Russia east line was officially put into operation for ventilation. The natural gas pipeline of the China Russia east line will be interconnected with the existing regional gas transmission network, which can stably supply 38 billion cubic meters of clean and high-quality natural gas resources to the northeast, Bohai rim and Yangtze River Delta every year, effectively improving and alleviating the air pollution along the line. After the official acceptance of Russian gas, Northeast China and Beijing Tianjin Hebei region will benefit directly.

 

10、 Establishment of national pipe network company

 

On December 9, the state oil and gas pipeline network Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “the state pipeline network company”) was established, which is a major measure to deepen the reform of the oil and gas industry and ensure the safe and stable supply of oil and gas. The national pipeline network company will build a “one network for the whole country” to realize the interconnection of long-distance oil and gas pipelines, better guarantee the national energy security, and promote the high-quality development of the oil and gas industry. It is a key step to deepen the reform of the oil and gas system in China, promote the formation of the “x + 1 + X” oil and gas market system, an important part of deepening the reform of the oil and gas system, and a very basic and key measure It is an important part of deepening the reform of oil and gas system, as well as a very basic and key measure, which can better guarantee the national energy security, promote the high-quality development of oil and gas industry and meet the people’s needs for a better life.

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1、21.18%

 

According to the monitoring of the business agency, PX price dropped by 21.18% in 2019, 8500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, 6700 yuan / ton at the end of the year, and 21.18% in the whole year. In 2019, the lowest price of PX is 6600 yuan / ton on September 3, and the highest price is 9000 yuan / ton on March 12, with a maximum amplitude of 36.36%.

 

2. US $10 / ton

 

The profit of PX products in 2019 dropped sharply, with the annual profit of 10, the highest profit in April was 240 USD / T, the lowest profit in November was – 70 USD / T, but the annual average profit was about 10 USD / T, significantly lower than that in 2018, and the high profit was mainly concentrated in the period from January to April.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

3. 20.365 million tons

 

In 2019, the domestic PX capacity will be up to 20.365 million tons. In 2019, the domestic refining and chemical plant in Hainan will increase by 1 million tons, the new capacity of Hongrun chemical will be 600000 tons, and the new capacity of Hengli petrochemical plant will be 4.5 million tons. The capacity of other units will not change, but the domestic production will only be about 15 million tons.

 

4. 70%

 

In 2019, the overall operation rate of PX in China will be about 7.30%, Fuhai will start an 800000 ton production line for 1.6 million ton plant, Urumqi petrochemical plant will start at 50%, Hainan refining and chemical plant phase II will be put into operation in October, Hengli Petrochemical will start a 2.25 million ton plant, and the overall operation rate of PX in China will be at a low level of 7.30%.

 

5、48%

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

In 2019, the domestic PX dependence on foreign countries dropped to 48%. According to the statistics, the total PX import in 2019 was about 14 million tons, the domestic output was about 15 million tons, and the dependence on foreign countries was still as high as 48%. However, 2019 was a year when the PX dependence on foreign countries declined.

 

6. 55.805 million tons

 

According to statistics, the total capacity of PX in Asia is 55.805 million tons, including 2011.5 million tons in China, 9.95 million tons in South Korea, 3.89 million tons in Japan, 5.68 million tons in India, and 70% of PX products from Japan and South Korea are exported to China.

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I. price trend

 

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the market price trend of cryolite in this week is down. The average market price at the beginning of the week is about 6100.00 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the week is about 5900.00 yuan / ton. The price is down 200 yuan / ton, down 3.28%, 8.29% year-on-year.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

II. Market analysis

 

Product: this week, the price trend of cryolite fell. Cryolite enterprises had sufficient inventory and fair transactions. The quotation of manufacturers in Henan Province was mainly stable, and the quotation of individual enterprises was reduced. The main reason is that the market competition pressure of enterprises is great, and the price of purchasers is low, and they tend to purchase at low prices. As of the 13th, the price of cryolite in Shandong Province has been temporarily stable, with the ex factory quotation of 6500-6950 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan Province has been lowered, with the market price of 4800-6500 yuan / ton. At present, the price of cryolite of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4800 yuan / ton; that of Jiaozuo Minli industry is 6500 yuan / ton; that of Zhengzhou Tianrui crystal technology is 6400 yuan / ton.

 

Industry chain: the price trend of fluorite in the upstream of cryolite is stable this week. The average price of domestic market at the weekend is about 2883.33 yuan / ton, which is flat compared with the beginning of the week. In recent years, the price trend of fluorite in China has been fluctuating, with little change in price. The market for goods in the market is general, and the downstream is purchased on demand. The spot supply of fluorite is normal. In the downstream aluminum industry, the aluminum price this week shows the trend of “roller coaster”. The average market price at the beginning of the week is 14080.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week is 14023.33 yuan / ton, down 156.67 yuan / ton. The price in the week is down 0.40%, and the overall price has little change. Since the start of heating in winter, due to the production policy of environmental protection industry, the aluminum output may be reduced, and the upstream cryolite industry will also be affected.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

III. future forecast

 

According to the cryolite product analyst of the business association, at present, the quotation of cryolite market is multi-dimensional and stable, the manufacturer’s devices are in normal operation, the inventory is sufficient, and the shipment is acceptable. When the supply exceeds the demand, the enterprise’s competitive pressure is obvious, and the downstream purchase tends to be low, on the other hand, the upstream raw material impact also exists. It is expected that the cryolite market will be stable and sorted in the later stage, with specific attention to market demand.

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