1、 Overall trend

On February 28, the LLDPE commodity index was 65.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 44.47% from 117.56, the highest point in the cycle (December 11, 2013), and up 0.99% from 64.64, the lowest point on February 19, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The LDPE commodity index on February 28 was 58.85, unchanged from yesterday, 48.07% lower than 113.33 (2013-12-08), the highest point in the cycle, and 1.00% higher than 58.27, the lowest point on February 19, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

On February 28, the HDPE commodity index was 59.84, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.52% from 102.33 (2014-07-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 3.26% from 57.95, the lowest point on February 24, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

On February 28, the polyethylene market continued to be weak, showing a trend of horizontal consolidation, in which the average price of LDPE 2426h in East China monitored by the business association was about 7526.5 yuan / ton; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 7383.33 yuan / ton; the average price of LLDPE 7042 was about 6816.67 yuan / ton. As of February 28, the prices of LLDPE, LDPE and HDPE in East China were stable. International crude oil continued to decline, with a large range. On the 28th, the market reported a decline, and the overall trading atmosphere was still weak. The futures market fell, and the international crude oil continued to decline, petrochemical inventory rose slightly, and the strength of the on-site supply cost was average. Business delivery is not smooth, small margin shipping based.

Upstream: international oil prices fell for the fifth day in a row on February 27 (Thursday), hitting the lowest level in more than a year. Oil distribution fell to a new low since late December 2018, and US crude oil continued to brush its 13-month low to US $47.84, continuing to dominate the oil market due to concerns about the slowing economy and demand. Light crude oil for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.64, or 3.37%, to $47.09 a barrel as of February 27. London Brent crude oil futures for April delivery fell $1.25, or 2.77%, to $52.18 a barrel.

Futures trend: according to the monitoring of business club, on February 28, the opening price of main contracts of l1905 polyethylene futures was 8635, the highest price was 8635, the lowest price was 8555, the closing price was 8580, the former settlement price was 8655, the settlement price was 8590, down 75, down 0.87%, the volume was 222262, the position was 413566, and the daily increase was – 2846. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

3、 Future forecast

International oil price continues to be weak, cost support is limited, downstream factories return to work slowly, more on-demand procurement, market entry atmosphere is relatively light, it is expected to continue to be weak in the near future.

Commodity index: on February 26, the polyaluminium chloride commodity index was 105.41, unchanged from yesterday, 3.30% lower than the highest point of 109.01 (2019-08-28) in the cycle, and 4.47% higher than the lowest point of 100.90 on December 19, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), the mainstream market quotation of polyaluminium chloride (fixed, content ≥ 28%) in early February 2020 is about 1833.33 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market quotation on the 26th is 1833.33 yuan / ton, which is stable. In February, the main quotation scope of domestic market of polyaluminium chloride was mainly concentrated in: the quotation of solid polyaluminium chloride (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) with tax was about 1800-2200 yuan / ton, the quotation of liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%) with tax was about 400-450 yuan / ton, some manufacturers just returned to work and delivered goods, because of the increase of raw material cost, the quotation of polyaluminium ex factory was increased by 50 yuan / ton.

Upstream: from the middle of January 2020 to now, after the Spring Festival holiday and delayed resumption of work, the domestic market hydrochloric acid price is stable. According to the data of the business agency, the mixed price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province for 31min from February 17 to 24 was 236.67 yuan / ton, down 1.39%, 186.87% higher than the same period last year, and the downstream purchase volume and hydrochloric acid supply are normal.

Downstream: during the Spring Festival, the construction of water treatment project is stopped, and there is basically no purchase order; at present, the construction units start to resume work one after another, and the demand will gradually improve.

Manufacturer: Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, received the notice on December 19, 2019 to stop production continuously. It is reported that the factory has just returned to work since the end of last week, and some manufacturers only returned to work but did not resume production. The demand accumulated in the early stage has been delivered successively. As the transportation system is gradually recovering, the manufacturer’s delivery will be normal.

Industry:

1. In late July 2019, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution status and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production before acceptance, and can resume production after scheduling or acceptance according to the office.

2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance.

3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal.

4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.

5. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in the main production area stopped production and delayed resumption of work. After 20 days, manufacturers in the main production area returned to work one after another, and some of them have returned to work.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, under the current situation, the review and approval of the construction unit’s resumption of work is strict. With the gradual progress of the review and approval of the resumption of work in various regions, the demand for polyaluminium chloride in various regions will increase, the current transportation system is also gradually recovering, and the delivery will increase. The current supply of goods for the manufacturers is sufficient. Most of the water treatment enterprises in the main production area of Henan Province have resumed production and some have resumed production without shortage of goods. The upstream hydrochloric acid market is slightly reduced, and the enterprises’ resumption of work is gradually increased, and the downstream demand will turn from weak to warm.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business association, as of February 25, the average quotation of organosilicon DMC market in several mainstream areas monitored by the data is 19000 yuan / ton. At present, the market operation is stable and the quotation fluctuation is not big.

2、 Market analysis

Products: since last week, enterprises all over the country have started to resume production. The trading atmosphere in the domestic silicone market has changed. Factories in the middle and lower reaches and dealers of traders have been put into production and resumed production. The traditional lower reaches have been gradually restored, among which the lower reaches in Guangdong Province have recovered rapidly. With the improvement of logistics and the rising of inquiry atmosphere, the market trading atmosphere is gradually active. The phenomenon of DMC closing and non reporting has been improved. The number of companies that offer has increased, and the volume of transactions has increased, but the volume of transactions has not yet made a breakthrough growth. The companies take orders at the early stage of issuance as the main task, and the prices of various manufacturers are stable, and most of them continue the prices before the Spring Festival, and some of them have large inventory, In order to relieve the pressure of inventory, the shutdown and load reduction of the device are still continuing, and part of the actual transactions have a small margin. At present, the main quotation of organosilicon DMC is about 19000 yuan / ton, and the transaction price is between 18500-19000 yuan / ton.

Start up of the unit: the single unit was started and upgraded, and Jiangxi spark recovered to full load production. Ekin silicon (Jiangxi base) has an annual production capacity of 400000 tons and normal operation of the device; Shandong Province: Luxi device operates stably; Jinling device is under shutdown and maintenance; Dongyue has an annual production capacity of 250000 tons and starts about 70%; Zhejiang Province: Zhongtian Dongfang fluorine silicon is under shutdown; 70% of new installation and start-up; Hesheng silicon device operates normally, but Sichuan and Xinjiang plants are not satisfied with the start-up; Hubei Xingfa 32 With an annual production capacity of 10000 tons, 60% of the capacity has been started, and the newly increased capacity has not been released yet; Tangshan Sanyou has one opening, one stop and one stop; due to the limited logistics, some monomer stocks are on the high side, and the device continues to stop.

Industry chain: the operating rate of silicone rubber enterprises in various parts of the country has begun to rise. Influenced by the factors such as the construction of the terminal market has not started, the overall operating rate of silicone rubber is still at a low level. However, silicone rubber manufacturers that have resumed work have started to increase the replenishment of 107 rubber, and the enthusiasm of inquiry has increased. Last week, most of the transactions were just in need of replenishment, and the shipment of 107 rubber began to recover gradually from the earlier stage. At present, 107 rubber companies do not offer many sealed offers, the raw material DMC offers maintain stability, cost support is still strong.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business club think: considering the factors of high inventory and high increase before the festival, it is expected that the market will have limited space to rise in the near future. Due to the slow resumption of work in the downstream, as the stock pressure of single enterprise increases, the price has downward exploration expectation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency: on February 19, the weekly average price of domestic industrial purified water formic acid was 1950 yuan / ton. As of February 21, the weekly average price of domestic industrial barreled formic acid was 2100 yuan / ton, without any increase. This week, the formic acid market was relatively stable.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic industrial purified water grade 85% formic acid market overall showed a relatively stable trend. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation, many manufacturers are not in operation, and the current price has no change compared with the same period last year. In terms of equipment: the start-up manufacturer is basically working at home and will not deliver the goods after receiving the order. In terms of price: this week, the factory’s quotation is basically maintained around 1950 yuan / ton. At present, there is no quotation from mainstream dealers. Although some enterprises have started construction, transportation is still a big problem. As of Friday (February 21), industrial water purification: Jinzhou jinhongda Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 2100 / T; Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1800 yuan / T; industrial barrel: Jintan local supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. offers 2300 / T; Jinan senhong new Co., Ltd. 1900 / T.

Industrial chain: due to the impact of the epidemic situation, the liquid ammonia market has no increase. The downstream is mainly based on the construction conditions. The upstream products generally support the formic acid market, while the leather and pesticide industries of the downstream products have no obvious demand for the moment, and there is not much trading.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid data division of the business association, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole maintains a relatively stable trend, and enterprises generally remain stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the current offer of the mainstream manufacturers is around 6300-6400 yuan / ton, and that of the spot mainstream negotiation is around 6150-6300 yuan / ton. Market reference: the price of water bottle in East China market is 6150-6250 yuan; the price of water bottle in South China market is 6150-6300 yuan; the price of water bottle in North China market is 6200-6250 yuan.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: polyester bottle chip manufacturer’s quotation was slightly increased, downstream carefully watched, the overall market turnover was not fast, most of them maintained rigid demand, production and sales were flat, and a few large manufacturers asked for orders. There is no obvious improvement in the market, mainly light finishing. At present, there are only a limited number of manufacturers returning to work, basically returning to work in batches, with a relatively slow speed and a strong wait-and-see state

Industry chain: crude oil rose, PTA pressure rose slightly, to some extent, supporting the market trend, short-term or stalemate operation, but the demand side of the downturn.

On the supply side: the supply of raw materials in the site is tight, the market atmosphere is light under various factors, and the supply and demand are in a dilemma.

Industry: on February 21, pet commodity index was 46.99, up 0.19 points from yesterday, down 54.71% from 103.76 (2011-09-22), and up 0.79% from 46.62, the lowest point on February 17, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

Pet analysts believe that the market price is stable in the short term.