On March 8, the fluorite commodity index was 110.33, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.46% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 124.20% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of fluorite in China has increased significantly. As of the 9th day, the average price of fluorite in China is 3366.67 yuan / ton. Recently, the operation rate of fluorite plant in China is relatively low, the part of mine and flotation plant in the site has not been started yet, and the supply of fluorite in the site is very tight. Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has increased slightly. For the purchase on demand in fluorite market, the goods in the fluorite field are in good condition, and the market price of fluorite is good The trend has risen sharply. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is tight, and the downstream of the terminal is purchased on demand, resulting in higher market price. As of September 9, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 3200-3400 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 3300-3500 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 3300-3500 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3300-3500 yuan / ton. The price trend of fluorite rose sharply.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the downstream of fluorite slightly increased. As of 9 days, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in China was 11500 yuan / ton. The price rise of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, in the near future, the operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite is normal, and the enterprise has not yet started construction, the supply of goods in the site is relatively tight, and the price of fluorite is significantly higher. In the near future, the transaction market of downstream refrigerants of the terminal has increased. At present, the automobile industry is gradually back to work. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The price trend of domestic refrigerants R22 market is rising slightly. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production units is still not high. The supply of goods in the market is general. The downstream air-conditioning manufacturers are gradually starting to work. The demand changes little. The price mainstream of domestic large enterprises rises to 16500-1850 0 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market is temporarily stable, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is average. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, and the price remains stable. The downstream purchase is still on demand. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is slightly higher, and the downstream market is slightly higher. In addition, the recent price of hydrofluoric acid market is higher, so the fluorite market is favorable Support prices to rise substantially.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry rose slightly, the supply of fluorite was tight, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly in the near future. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may continue to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on March 1, the average ex factory price of the mainstream manufacturers was 22166.67 yuan / ton, and on the weekend (6 days) the average price was 22500 yuan / ton. This week’s market slightly increased by 1.5%. On March 5, the R134a commodity index was 82.32, up 1.22 points from yesterday, down 17.68% from the highest point of 100.00 points (2019-09-02), and up 1.50% from the lowest point of 81.10 points on March 4, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: Refrigerant Market R134a rose this week. At present, the market of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the raw material end is good, which supports refrigerant R134a. In addition, with the increase of refrigerant stock in the automobile industry and the demand for temperature return, it is conducive to the rising of refrigerant R134a price. At present, the refrigerant R134a starts at a high level in the market, and the new capacity is not released. At the same time, due to the impact of the East Sunshine fluorine accident, the factory is cautious in receiving orders. The supply of R134a market is tight, and the price has the potential to rise. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of March 6, Zhejiang Juhua R134a offered 22000 yuan / ton, Quzhou Jiuzhou chemical R134a 22500 yuan / ton and Zhejiang lengwang technology R134a 23000 yuan / ton, The quotation of Yuemei chemical R134a is 21600 yuan / ton, that of Longxun trade R134a is 22000 yuan / ton, that of Yumei chemical R134a is 22000 yuan / ton, that of blue planet R134a is 25000 yuan / ton, and the price is concentrated in 22000 yuan / ton – 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid slightly increased. On March 6, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 10500-11500 yuan / ton. The factory price of some manufacturers in the field was temporarily stable. The operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was average, the supply of goods in the field was slightly strained, and the market price in the field remained high. The terminal and air-conditioning market are weak in purchase and sale, the inventory in the field is acceptable, the construction is insufficient, the automobile industry is preparing goods for temperature return, and the refrigerant R134a price is favorable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 10 commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on March 5, 2020, among which the top three commodities are monoammonium phosphate (3.59%), R134a (1.50%) and 1,4-butanediol (0.83%). There are 10 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and the top three products were crude benzene (- 3.70%), butanone (- 3.63%) and aniline (- 1.93%). The average price of this day was – 0.06%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, the supply of refrigerant R134a in the market is tight, and the raw material end and demand end have good performance. It is expected that refrigerant R134a will be slightly increased in the short term.

On the one hand, the overseas epidemic situation is complex, and there is no stable situation yet, which is expected to have an impact on aluminum consumption; on the other hand, despite the gradual pick-up of demand in March, inventory is in a continuous accumulation situation, and aluminum prices will maintain low volatility.

With the sudden outbreak of the recent overseas epidemic, the global financial market fell into panic and the price of aluminum fell sharply. At present, the domestic epidemic situation has been basically controlled, and all regions are actively and orderly resuming work and production. It is optimistic that the normal production level can be returned in the middle of March. However, due to the complexity of the overseas epidemic and the lack of a stable situation, it is expected that the aluminum consumption will be affected, and the aluminum price in the future will be easy to fall and hard to rise.

Capacity rising trend unchanged

As the profit level of electrolytic aluminum smelting continues to be at a high level in 2019, the smelting capacity has been rising since the fourth quarter, and new investment and re production capacity have contributed. In 2020, the rising trend of supply has not changed. In the first quarter, the new investment capacity is mainly concentrated in Southwest China, including the second phase of Heqing of Yunnan Aluminum and the first phase of Shenhuo of Yunnan Province, which started to be put into operation after the new year’s day, and the new production capacity of Zhongfu of Guangyuan continued to be put into operation. In addition to the new production, the production capacity is also more active before the saving. In the early stage, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other places were forced to reduce production capacity due to accidents or losses. However, affected by the epidemic, some new projects and resumption plans had to slow down. In addition, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Hubei and other places have also slowed down or shelved the resumption plan due to the epidemic.

According to statistics, at the end of February, the operation capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 37.22 million tons, an increase of 580000 tons compared with that at the end of 2019. Despite the impact of the epidemic on some production capacity delivery plans, it is expected that the capacity increment brought by the new investment and resumption of production in March will still be 100000-200000 tons. Therefore, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum keeps rising.

The impact of overseas epidemic should not be underestimated

Different from the small impact of the supply side, the demand side is significantly affected by the epidemic. As of February 27, the national aluminum social inventory (aluminum ingot + aluminum bar) was 1623000 tons, an increase of 829000 tons compared with that before the Spring Festival. However, due to the inconvenience of transportation, the inventory in the factory was nearly 440000 tons, which shows that the accumulated inventory range is much higher than expected.

With the gradual control of the epidemic, production has been resumed all over the country in the near future. However, due to the isolation of returning employees and the incomplete recovery of transportation between regions, the resumption of work is relatively slow. As of this week, the operating rate of aluminum processing industry is expected to be about 50%, and it is estimated that the overall resumption of work nationwide (except for Hubei Province) is expected to be in the middle and late March. Therefore, inventory continues to accumulate, and social inventory is expected to return to the magnitude of 2 million tons.

In addition to the delay in the recovery of domestic consumption, the situation overseas is not optimistic. In recent two weeks, the epidemic has spread rapidly overseas, with South Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran as the most serious ones. Iran, as the producer of electrolytic aluminum, has not heard the news of production reduction. However, South Korea, Japan and Italy are all consumer countries. Although the above-mentioned countries have not yet taken measures to shut down production and have little direct impact on aluminum consumption, the three countries are developed countries with important economic status. Japan and South Korea are the core countries of the global automobile manufacturing industry and semiconductor industry supply chain, and Italy is also one of the largest economies in Europe. Therefore, the spread of the epidemic will have a negative impact on the economy, aluminum consumption and the number of export orders.

Shortage of raw material supply

In addition to the demand side, the epidemic also has a significant impact on alumina production. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, due to the impact of traffic control and the postponement of mine construction, many alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan are in short supply of raw materials, forcing them to reduce or reduce production. At present, the output level of pressure reduction is as high as 5.8 million tons. Even though the import volume continues to increase, the domestic alumina supply and demand still turns to the shortage situation. With the continuous improvement of traffic in the near future, the problem of raw material supply has been alleviated, and the production capacity of some aluminum plants has been restored, but the overall situation is still not significantly improved, so it needs to wait for the comprehensive lifting of traffic ban.

On the whole, domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and the cost side is supported. Although the demand gradually picks up in March, the inventory is in a situation of continuous accumulation, the domestic aluminum price rebound power is insufficient, and the future market will be in a low level oscillation. If the epidemic continues to spread and there are more and more affected areas, the inventory accumulation will further expand, and the domestic aluminum price will fall to 12500 yuan / ton, corresponding to the price of lunlu aluminum at 1600 US dollars / ton.

1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of refined oil fell in February. At the end of the month, the price of gasoline was 6154 yuan / ton, 8.02% lower than 6691 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the price of diesel was 6056 yuan / ton, 1.75% lower than 6164 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: affected by the Chinese epidemic situation in February, the demand of refined oil market dropped precipitously. In the late ten days, with the increase of enterprises returning to work, the refined oil market rebounded slightly, but the overall refined oil market was in a downward trend.

Industry chain: affected by the epidemic situation in China at the beginning of this month, domestic refineries reduced their operating rates, and domestic crude oil market demand fell sharply. Three major institutions, OPEC, EIA and IEA, simultaneously reduced the growth rate of global crude oil demand this year. In the late ten days, the new crown epidemic in other regions of the world, such as the Middle East and Europe, had a trend of spreading. The spread of globalization worried the market about future economic development. The price of international crude oil market is declining.

Market: affected by the epidemic situation in China, the demand of domestic refined oil market dropped precipitously, and the market price kept decreasing in the first ten days of February. In terms of gasoline, due to the high inventory of refineries, the lack of large orders and other favorable factors in the market, as well as the delay in the resumption of work of various enterprises, the gasoline price continued to decline. In terms of diesel, although the increase in the operating rate of coal mines, warehouses and other enterprises has provided good results to some extent, the performance of the demand side has not met expectations, and the market trading has weakened again at the end of February. In February, the refined oil product was depressed by the demand side, and the market price kept falling.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with business association, believes that the new crown epidemic has a trend of continuous spread abroad, which will depress the price of the international crude oil market. At the same time, domestic enterprises will return to work step by step. The market demand for oil products cannot reach the previous position in one step. It is expected that the market price of oil products will continue to run at a low level, or have a small rebound.

1、 Price trend

The domestic toluene market fell slightly this week, down 0.6% on last week as of Friday, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: due to the continuous spread of the epidemic and fear of the impact of the shrinking demand for crude oil, the international crude oil price fell sharply this week, and the price of toluene in the Korean market fell sharply. Although domestic enterprises gradually entered the resumption period, and the market demand gradually improved, the domestic toluene price still followed the decline. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 4950 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, international oil prices fell sharply this week. As of Friday, spot Brent fell 10.76%, Brent futures fell 10.92%, WTI futures fell 11.41%, and Dubai futures fell 10.27%.

On the downstream side, TDI, at present, toluene TDI’s external offer is about USD 615 / T FOB ARA, and domestic goods with bills are quoted with reference to RMB 10500-11000 / T. due to the slow recovery of downstream demand, it is expected that the TDI market will stop falling and stabilize next week. In the PX market, Sinopec’s companies were listed at about 6300 yuan / ton this week, with the latest price of about 670 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 688 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market price will stop falling and stabilize next week.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch said: next week, we will continue to focus on the trend of crude oil and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption. On the whole, it is expected that the price of isomeric xylene in the international crude oil market and South Korean market will stop falling and recover next week. In addition, domestic enterprises will gradually enter the resumption period, and the market demand will gradually improve. Under the expectation, the price of toluene in the domestic market next week will be in shock and rebound trend.