1、 Price trend

Yellow phosphorus prices fell in March, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 17700 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 16500 yuan / ton. The price fell within the month by 6.78%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: yellow phosphorus prices fell this month. The start-up of yellow phosphorus enterprises has increased slightly, and there are many enterprises planned to resume production in the near future. The local market of yellow phosphorus is average, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is not high, the wait-and-see mood is obvious, and the mentality of traders is unstable. By the end of the month, the mainstream price in Yunnan is about 16200-16300 yuan / ton. The main price in Sichuan is about 16800-17000 yuan / ton. The main price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 16200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: at the beginning of this month, the overall operation of domestic phosphorus ore market was basically restored. The recovery of phosphorus ore market in Guizhou is relatively fast, and the operation rate in Yunnan is still low. Up to now, the domestic phosphorus ore market is still in stable operation as a whole after a small fluctuation in March. At present, in Guizhou Province, 28% of the grade phosphate ore plants quote 320-340 yuan / ton; 30% of the grade phosphate ore plants quote 340-370 yuan / ton. Hubei area: the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore shipboard is about 380-410 yuan / ton. Yunnan area: 28% of the price of ammonium phosphate ore car plate is about 270-290 yuan / ton. Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) market price, the mainstream price in 1830 yuan / ton, is expected to maintain stability in the short term. This month, the phosphoric acid market was not trading well, and the overall waiting atmosphere of the market was strong. Phosphate Market operation rate is not high, enterprises temporarily wait and see the market, the current order contract based.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the overall atmosphere of yellow phosphorus in China this month is poor, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the wait-and-see mood is strong, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. It is expected that the weak operation of yellow phosphorus price is the main factor.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the potassium sulfate market continued to rise in March, with the highest price increase of more than 100 yuan. In the spring farming season, the potassium sulfate sales peak season, plus the low operating rate after the previous year, no inventory pressure, the price went up all the way.

2、 Market analysis

At the beginning of March, the agricultural demand for potash fertilizer increased continuously, the start-up of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises increased significantly, the upstream potassium chloride market also increased gradually, and the potassium sulfate Market improved accordingly. After the year, the shutdown and maintenance of the plants in Mannheim’s potassium sulphate enterprises were more frequent, with the operating rate of about 50%. The water and salt system only started to operate with luok. The enterprises had no inventory pressure, and the price of hydrochloric acid was stuck upside down, and the market began to rise steadily. By the end of March, the operating rate of potassium sulphate industry in Mannheim, the Northeast market, was still as high as 80%. Although there was no upward momentum in the price of potassium sulphate, the overall price was mainly stable. The main factory price of 52% water-soluble powder and 50% Extruded round grain was 2850 yuan / ton, basically no preferential policy. The registration station of potassium sulphate manufacturer in water salt system: Xinjiang 51-52% powder 3100-3150; Qinghai 50% powder 2300-2380. Many Mannheim manufacturers have too many orders, some of which have been scheduled for the middle and late April.

3、 Industrial chain

Upstream: the fluctuation trend of potassium chloride price will continue for a period of time, because there is a lot of port inventory and the border trade continues to arrive, the price should not fall sharply, and once the negotiation of large contracts continues to delay, it is not ruled out that the price may also fluctuate slightly again.

Downstream: at the end of March, the demand for compound fertilizer in spring has basically entered a period of completion, and the demand space has been more than half, so there is no big wave in the short term.

4、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that at present, Mannheim manufacturers’ orders are mainly shipped in the early stage, and the quotation tends to be high-end gradually. The volume of new orders is fair, and the shipping pressure is not big. It is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term and pay attention to the change of upstream potassium chloride market at any time.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of the business association, the average factory price of domestic refined naphtha as of March 31 was 5260.00 yuan / ton, down 16.20% from 6276.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of refined naphtha continued to fall sharply this month.

On March 30, the naphtha commodity index was 66.15, down 1.65 points from yesterday, down 35.54% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 56.61% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of ground refined naphtha continued to fall sharply this month. At present, the mainstream price of hydrogenated naphtha is about 4700 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 47.09 USD / barrel at the beginning of the month, 20.09 USD / barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 57.34%; Brent crude oil is 51.73 USD / barrel at the beginning of the month, 26.42 USD / barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 48.93%. At the OPEC + meeting, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that their production has increased substantially. Meanwhile, affected by the overseas epidemic, more and more countries have taken measures to restrict travel, forcing more refineries to gradually reduce production. Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream price of toluene in East China is about 3050 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of isomerized xylene in East China is about 3180 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of p-xylene is about 4300 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analyst of business club, affected by the overseas epidemic situation, the naphtha market in Asia is operating at a low level. Recently, the refining supply has increased, but the demand is limited. At present, a small number of refineries sell large quantities of naphtha in advance. In April, the market supply and demand are not significantly good. It is expected that the price of naphtha in April will continue to decline, with the average price range of 4500-5200 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of asphalt fell sharply in March. At the end of the month, the price of asphalt was reported as 3250 yuan / ton, down 4.97% compared with that at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: in March, the price of international crude oil market fell sharply, the cost of asphalt kept dropping, and the demand of asphalt market fell to a low point, and the price of domestic asphalt market kept falling.

Industry chain: the OPEC + conference collapsed, Saudi Arabia and Russia successively announced the news of continuous release of a substantial increase in production. At the same time, due to the impact of the overseas epidemic, more and more countries have taken measures to restrict travel, forcing more refineries to gradually reduce production. Goldman Sachs predicted that the global demand for crude oil in March will fall by 10.5 million barrels / day, and may fall by 18.7 million barrels / day in April. It is still possible that the relevant agencies will continue to reduce their crude oil demand expectations. The international crude oil market fell sharply to $20 / barrel, WTI crude oil fell by 54% and Brent crude oil by 45%.

In the aspect of asphalt Market: in March, the crude oil market price continued to fall, the asphalt production cost continued to decrease, Sinopec’s Asphalt prices in East China and South China decreased by 200 yuan / ton, and the asphalt transaction prices in Northeast China, Shandong and Hebei continued to decrease, which made it difficult to stop the market price decline. And the domestic asphalt just needs to recover is limited, and the trend of crude oil price is pessimistic. Major institutions continue to reduce the price expectation in the later period, the market mentality is pessimistic, there are fewer transactions, and the space for asphalt reduction continues to expand. In March, the domestic asphalt market price continued to be lowered.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst at business news agency, believes that the overseas epidemic situation is on the rise, and there is no sign of production reduction in Saudi Arabia and Russia, and the international crude oil market is under pressure. In addition, April has not yet reached the peak season of asphalt demand, and it is expected that the asphalt price will be adjusted mainly below.

1、 Price trend

The domestic methanol market continued to decline. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market at the beginning of the week was 1702 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic methanol market at the end of the week was 1612 yuan / ton, down 5.29% in the week, 20.27% month on month, 31.96% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: methanol market continued to decline this week, and the delivery atmosphere was better. At the beginning of the week, Guanzhong area fell by 200 yuan / ton to 1400-1460 yuan / ton, the profit of production enterprises shrank seriously, the bottom reading operation of downstream and traders increased, and the on-site negotiation was active; Inner Mongolia and Northern Shaanxi area fell to 1350-1400 yuan / ton of ex factory spot exchange, the production enterprises strengthened their prices, and the seller’s advantages gradually showed; the traditional downstream of Xinjiang continued to be depressed, the demand side was insufficient, and the supply in Xinjiang continued to be weak 800 yuan / ton ex factory spot exchange to Ningxia, 1350 yuan / ton tax inclusive from the sources outside Xinjiang. At present, the production and sales of regional production enterprises are basically balanced this week, and the inventory is kept within the controllable range. In terms of supply, Xianyang’s main factory will store the maintenance plan next week, which will boost the market.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market fell in a narrow range. The overall operation of the market started smoothly, the upstream formaldehyde market continued to explore, the production cost of formaldehyde enterprises followed the reduction, and the theoretical profit was acceptable, but the demand of the downstream market was limited, which led to the difficulty of formaldehyde enterprises’ shipment. Under this pressure, some enterprises reduced their profits and shipped at low prices.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market is light this week. After the price quoted by mainstream manufacturers rose, it fell back, and the overall market atmosphere was bearish. Then the price quoted by Henan manufacturers followed the correction. Although the market did not form an overall decline, the transaction was very light under the market bearish sentiment. Although the northwest supplier increased slightly last week, the customer said that the real price was still stable, and the low-end goods source successively hit North China. The northwest supplier’s recent transaction was smooth, and the inventory dropped significantly. However, the inventory of manufacturers in Shandong and Henan is still high, and the overall negative situation of acetic acid market is difficult to ease.

Dimethyl ether: this week, the domestic price of dimethyl ether continued to be low as a whole, and some regional prices rebounded slightly. International negative factors continue to spread, leading to the decline of crude oil. The price fluctuation has a close relationship with the upstream raw material methanol and terminal liquefied gas of DME, whether from the linkage of commodities or the relevance of downstream products. Under its influence, the momentum of the rise of methyl ether on Tuesday was insufficient and the price was mainly low. However, after a period of wait-and-see, the inventory of terminal gas stations is generally low, and there is a certain demand for replenishment. At the beginning of April, xinlianxin, a leading enterprise of dimethyl ether in Henan Province, planned two sets of units to be overhauled in turn, and the impact is expected to last about 60 days. The decline of its output has an impact on the market, and the market supporting behavior of enterprises has led to a slight rebound in the price of DME.

3、 Future forecast

Business club’s view: on the positive side, the domestic methanol price continues to decline, some of which has fallen near the cost line, and some of the factories have lost money; most of the factories in the main production area have little inventory pressure, and the purchase of purchased olefins is relatively considerable. On the negative side, overseas public security incidents triggered market concerns. The trend of international crude oil, finance and stock market was weak, and market participants were worried about it. The port demand was limited, and the arrival of inventory was stable, but the unloading speed was slow due to the tight storage capacity. After Iran’s gas limit was eased, methanol production increased, and it is expected to arrive in China in late March. The world financial environment has affected the domestic economic environment, and the mentality of methanol participants has been affected. Although the price has fallen to a historical low, there is little intention to copy and speculate. At present, the financial environment and international oil price have become the main logic affecting the bulk commodities, and the product fundamentals have little impact. Methanol analysts of the business club predict that the methanol rate will continue to decline next week.