According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 14, the average price of domestic rubber grade white carbon black was 4566.67 yuan / ton, and the domestic silica kept stable operation, general demand and low inventory.

 

Domestic rubber grade silica market as a whole maintains stable operation, with low inventory, tight spot supply, general transaction atmosphere, normal shipment, no obvious improvement in downstream demand. Just in need procurement is given priority to, and goods are taken carefully. Silica is mainly divided into precipitation method and gas phase method. At present, the price of fumed silica is about 22000 yuan / T, which belongs to the high-end product of silica, and will be affected by the same situation in 2020 Due to the influence of public events, orders are greatly reduced, domestic demand for fumed silica is low, and the pressure of shipment increases.

 

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The upstream hydrochloric acid keeps stable operation, the trading atmosphere is flat, and the supply and demand balance is maintained at present. In the short term, the hydrochloric acid market still maintains a stable trend. On July 14, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 94.74, up 1.32 points compared with yesterday, 5.26% lower than the cycle’s highest point 100.00 (2011-09-12), and 426.92% higher than the lowest point of 17.98 on September 05, 2012. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

 

On July 13, the chemical index was 664, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 34.65% from the highest point of 1016 (2012-03-13), and increased by 11.04% from the lowest point of 598 on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

 

White carbon black analysts believe that: in the short term, silica market stable operation, prices will not have a particularly big change. (the above prices are provided by major silica manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business silica analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

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Domestic methanol market rose slightly. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market price was 1635 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 1657 yuan / ton at the weekend, with an increase of 1.38% during the week. The price was 0.45% higher than that of the same period last month, and the price was 22.91% lower than that of the same period last year.

 

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This week, the performance of the mainland and port markets is different. Due to the strong performance of some equipment maintenance markets in Northwest China, manufacturers’ inventory pressure is not great, and the futures prices are rising, so the enterprise offers are actively following up. On the port side, after the spot price rises, the downstream is short of receiving high price goods The demand side is affected by factors such as rainy season and stricter environmental protection, and the traditional downstream start-up is not as expected. Although the profit of MTO is fair, the start-up is still at a low level compared with the same period last year. Some manufacturers still plan to repair in July.

 

In terms of industrial chain, formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market showed an upward trend. Mainly based on the strong pull up of upstream raw materials, the cost of purchasing raw materials of formaldehyde enterprises increased, supported by this, the offer of formaldehyde enterprises passively followed up. The terminal demand side continued to be affected by high temperature and rain, and the starting load continued to be low. Therefore, the demand for formaldehyde did not increase significantly, and was not affected by the rising market of formaldehyde on the supply side.

 

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Acetic acid: domestic acetic acid market rose sharply this week. At the beginning of the month, all manufacturers concentrated on delivery of contract sources, and the spot supply in the market was relatively tight. When Jiangsu Sopu and Shanghai Huayi units stopped at the end of last week, the acetic acid market lost 4800 tons per day. However, when the downstream demand was stable, the acetic acid market passively formed a situation of short supply. The inventory quantity of each manufacturer was low, which pushed up the price gradually.

 

Dimethyl ether: the domestic dimethyl ether market continued to rise this week, and the transaction atmosphere improved. Among them, the main production areas in Henan Province showed a particularly obvious rise, with the prices of mainstream enterprises such as BMW and xinlianxin rising continuously, with an increase of 70 yuan / ton during the week. At present, the inventory pressure of enterprises is generally not strong. Under the psychological influence of buying up and not buying down, the intention of terminal goods preparation is improved, and the overall transaction situation is active.

 

On the whole, methanol is constrained by high inventory, and supported by cost and crude oil. Methanol analysts of business agency expect that the domestic methanol market will maintain a narrow adjustment in the short term.

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The third quarter is the peak season of traditional demand for asphalt. The willingness to store up downstream goods is enhanced, and the refinery sales situation is good. In addition, the international oil price shocks and strengthens, and the asphalt price continues to rise. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, the asphalt price on July 9 was 2475 yuan / ton, which was 5.32% higher than that on July 1.

 

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In the first ten days of July, the southern region is still in the plum rain season, and the rainfall in East China, South China and other southern regions is still relatively large, and there are floods in many places, and the demand for asphalt terminal is low. However, the Meiyu season officially ended in southern China on July 9. The peak demand season of terminal market is still expected, and the mid and lower reaches have a strong desire to store goods. In Shandong and East China, there was a cumulative stock of asphalt, with the social inventory rate of 65-70%, which was 2-3% higher than last week, while the social inventory rate in South China was 61%, down 2% compared with last week. Asphalt stock demand is the main reason to boost the market price of asphalt.

 

The domestic production in June was 2.7859 million tons, and the domestic asphalt production plan in July was 2.98 million tons, both the highest levels in the same period of history. This week, the domestic asphalt operating rate is 64%, and the higher level is also at a higher level. However, the total inventory rate of refinery asphalt is 24%, and the inventory rate of refinery in Shandong area of North China is about 15%. Refinery asphalt inventory pressure is small, shipment is smooth, refinery asphalt prices continue to increase sales.

 

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OPEC + countries are determined to reduce production. Saudi Arabia and others have raised crude oil prices, boosting the international crude oil prices. WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose by 4.15% and 4.89% respectively in the first ten days of July. Domestic asphalt market price to cost support.

 

Business agency analysts believe that the southern region continued to rain weather, terminal asphalt demand to be restored. After this round of small increase in asphalt market price, it is expected that the asphalt price will fall slightly.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price in the first ten days of July rebounded to its original position after going down, with the price at the beginning of ten days at 6866 yuan / ton; at the end of ten days, the price was 6892 yuan / ton; on July 4 and 5, the ten day low price was 6636 yuan / ton, with a ten day increase of 0.38% and a ten day amplitude of 3.86%.

 

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2、 Analysis and comment

 

According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, with a relatively stable price range. At the end of June, the price has been at a relatively high level at the beginning of the month, and then continuously decreased. After going down 200-250 yuan / ton, the price began to fall back on the 6th, and it has risen by about 250 yuan / ton on the 9th. Today’s price is roughly flat. The market transaction is between 6810 yuan / ton and 7100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton, which is still in the high range, and the inventory backlog is not obvious.

 

On July 9, crude oil prices fell slightly, with little impact on propylene.

 

Recently, PP futures market is weak, but the late ten day PP spot pull up significantly, ten day increase of 3.20%, may have a positive impact on propylene.

 

In the early ten days, the market of acrylic acid has been stable in the early stage, and dropped sharply at the end of ten days, with a drop of 5.63%, which has a negative impact on propylene.

 

In the first ten days, the propylene oxide market rebounded after a shock and decline, with a ten day drop of 0.67% and a ten day amplitude of 2.01%.

 

The price of epichlorohydrin in the first ten days dropped significantly after the shock, with a drop of 6.39% in ten days and an amplitude of 8.72% in ten days.

 

In the first ten days, the domestic price of n-butanol was generally stable, with a slight upward trend, with a ten day increase of 0.28% and a ten day amplitude of 0.84%.

 

Octyl alcohol market in the first ten days was also stable and then went down, with a sharp decline at the end of ten days, with a drop of 3.10%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

 

In the first ten days, isopropanol market also showed a significant decline, with a drop of 8.62%, which had a significant negative impact on propylene.

 

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In the first ten days of East China, phenol continued to decline, with a drop of 14.43%, which had a more obvious suppression effect on propylene.

 

In the first ten days of East China acetone, similar to phenol, also showed a continuous downward trend, with a drop of 14.57% in ten days, which also had a greater suppression effect on propylene.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: Generally speaking, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is not big, the crude oil price is slightly downward, the polypropylene futures market is general, and the overall downstream market operating rate is still good, but most of the downstream prices have been reduced, the profit margin is weakened, and the propylene growth has reached the early range high, and the upward pressure is under pressure, so the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and it is expected to be close The daily propylene price may continue to be stable, which does not rule out the possibility of another downward trend on weekends.

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1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

 

Polyoxymethylene price curve

 

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According to the monitoring of the business agency, at the beginning of this week, the average quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) in Shandong Province was 4433 yuan / ton, while that at the weekend was 4400 yuan / ton, down 0.75%.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, is quoted at 4000 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Paraformaldehyde is still stable.

 

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According to the price monitoring of the upstream methanol, methanol is mainly operated in a narrow range in the near future, which is unfavorable to the price of paraformaldehyde; the downstream demand of paraformaldehyde is a traditional off-season in summer, which drags down the market of paraformaldehyde.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

To sum up, business community polyoxymethylene analysts believe: the price will probably go down.

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