Since the beginning of August, the price of polycrystalline silicon has continued to rise due to tight supply. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of August 7, the price of polysilicon has increased by 13.67%. At present, the domestic market quotation of polysilicon solar grade primary material has reached 55000 yuan / ton, and the imported material has reached 58000-62000 yuan / ton.

Since August, many domestic polysilicon units are still in the maintenance period. Since July, the market supply pressure has been effectively alleviated. At present, with the impact of poor transportation and more maintenance devices, the market supply is more tense. According to statistics, as of August 6, there are 4 polysilicon manufacturers still in the maintenance period, and the manufacturers mainly carry out line by line maintenance or equipment maintenance, especially centralized maintenance and repair in Xinjiang. Domestic supply is down 15-20% from the normal level. It is worth noting that due to the local supply imbalance caused by the epidemic situation in Xinjiang, the strict road control in Xinjiang, the transportation cost of polysilicon has risen sharply, and the labor cost has increased sharply, which largely supports the high price of polysilicon. In addition, in terms of import sources, the price of imported silicon materials also continued to rise, further impacting the domestic market. Due to the lack of overseas supply and the depreciation of the US dollar, the price of imported materials has increased significantly, which has increased by more than 5000 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month. On the whole, tight supply is the direct reason for the soaring price of polysilicon.

From the demand side, the concentrated release of downstream silicon wafer capacity also contributed to the upsurge of polysilicon market. Since July, the downstream has continued to warm up compared with may and June. With the gradual reduction of silicon material inventory of upstream and downstream manufacturers, the market supply is tight. After entering August, the momentum does not change, and the demand for silicon wafers rises. Most silicon wafer manufacturers continue to release new production capacity in the second half of the year, and the demand for polycrystalline silicon has increased. The supply of upstream polysilicon manufacturers has only decreased but not increased, and the supply is in short supply As a result, the price of silicon materials continued to rise. However, the rapid rise of PV upstream and midstream costs also has a serious impact on the terminal cells. According to the industry reaction, the price of polycrystalline cells has not increased significantly, and the cost pressure is high. Now the price has approached the cash cost of manufacturers. Because the current market is mainly driven by domestic rigid investment demand, the data of China Photovoltaic Industry Association shows that from January to June, China’s newly installed photovoltaic power generation capacity was 11.5 GW, an increase of 0.88% year-on-year. Affected by the overseas epidemic situation and the increasingly complex international trade situation, the export volume of photovoltaic modules continued to decline. From January to may in 2020, the export of main products of photovoltaic modules dropped. Among them, the export value of silicon chip was $879 million, the export value of battery chip was $504 million, and the export value of module was US $6.249 billion, a total of US $7.633 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12%.

In the later stage, the business club believes that the polysilicon uplink is mainly due to the decrease of supply. In August, there are still enterprises in the maintenance period. Under the influence of Xinjiang epidemic situation and enterprise review, the market supply will continue to be tense in the whole August. It is expected that polysilicon will still have upward space in the short term.

The domestic market of cyclohexanone rose slightly. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers was 5633 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 5733 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 1.78% during the week. The price fell 4.44% month on month compared with the same period last month and 30.36% lower than the same period last year.

The cyclohexanone market rose slightly this week. Recently, the pure benzene market is relatively strong. Sinopec’s pure benzene was listed on August 5 and increased by 100 yuan / ton, which strongly supported the cost side. At the beginning of the week, Luxi oxidation plant was shut down for maintenance, and other factories reduced production and increased load. Generally speaking, the daily output was reduced, but the social inventory was abundant, and caprolactam market was also in full swing On August 4, Sinopec offered 9600 yuan / ton of caprolactam this week, reduced 200 yuan / ton, accepted and picked up high-quality liquid products in June, and the price difference between cyclohexanone and caprolactam continued to decrease. Most of the downstream chemical fiber procurement was just needed, and the solvent followed the market.

Raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene rose this week. During the week, pure benzene in East China fell first and then rose, and the trading atmosphere turned lighter than last week. From July 31 to August 4, due to the continuous rise of port inventory and the influence of weak crude oil, the pure benzene in East China fluctuated and softened, and the spot negotiation went down to 3400-3500 yuan / T, with low-end and high-end cash withdrawn. On the 5th, Sinopec made up 100 yuan / ton due to the high external price, which had no obvious impact on the market price. However, due to the rise in crude oil, the market center of gravity followed up slightly.

Caprolactam: the spot price of caprolactam fell this week. At present, the cost side is still relatively strong, Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene continued to rise by 100 to 3450 yuan / ton this week, and the spot price in East China market was 3500-3600 yuan / ton. The price difference of benzhexyl continues to narrow, and the market mentality of caprolactam is different. Enterprises adjust according to their own cost and inventory.

Adipic acid: the domestic adipic acid market rose narrowly this week, and the actual single transaction was light. This week is at the end of the month and the beginning of the month, the focus of the industry is mainly on the factory linked settlement. The actual invoice price of each factory is rational, basically in line with the psychological expectations of the middle and lower reaches. Crude oil overall upward, external plate narrow upward, raw material pure benzene main business listing increased to 3450 yuan / ton, cost side pressure increased; at the same time, Hualu Hengsheng released the good news of overhaul since August 7, and the factory has strong intention to support the market.

In terms of cost, the maintenance of Luxi and Hualu cyclohexanone and the increase of other factories’ burden, the supply of cyclohexanone is expected to decrease slightly. However, due to the sluggish demand of chemical fiber market, the shipment of cyclohexanone is hindered and the social inventory is on the high side. From the perspective of demand, the terminal market demand is still weak, and the downstream caprolactam supply is abundant. At present, the price difference of cyclohexanone caprolactam is near the cost line of 3000 yuan / T, and it is expected that chemical fiber procurement will still be mainly on demand. Business community cyclohexanone analysts predict that short-term cyclohexanone narrow range fluctuations.

In July, the overall center of gravity of propane Market shifted upward, and the atmosphere of market transaction was positive, which made propane in the off-season break the situation of following the rules. The average price of propane (Shandong) market on July 1 was 2927.50 yuan / ton, and that on July 31 was 3350.00 yuan / ton, with an increase of 14.43% in the month and a decrease of 7.01% over the same period of last year.

Regional standard enterprises rose and fell from July 1 to July 31

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 HSBC Petrochemical 2980 yuan / ton 3350 yuan / ton + 370

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 Hualian Petrochemical 2880 yuan / ton 3250 yuan / ton + 370

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 Hengyuan Petrochemical 3000 yuan / ton 3500 yuan / ton + 500 yuan

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 Haiyou Petrochemical Company: 2850 yuan / ton, 3355 yuan / ton + 505

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 Binzhou Dayou 2880 yuan / ton 3250 yuan / ton + 370

At the beginning of July, the growth of propane market was not prominent. Due to the weak downward trend of LPG civil market, which affected the market mentality, propane continued the off-season market, and the price mainly fell in a narrow range, but the market downturn was only a few days. As the port has been in the state of profit inversion for a long time, and the domestic propane price is low, pushed up by the port, the market ushered in a rebound on July 6.

In mid July, propane market rose strongly and continued to push up. The rebound of international oil price and the strong rise of LPG civil price have significantly boosted the market, and the strong rise of air intake cost has supported the upward trend of port price. The port inventory is low, and the price has continued to rise under multiple favorable conditions. During this period, the domestic propane refinery output decreased. Under the support of low supply, the downstream market entry was positive, the market turnover atmosphere improved significantly, and the manufacturers’ mentality was strong, and the increase was more obvious.

In late July, the propane market was mainly in a narrow range. Due to the rapid growth rate of propane in the middle of the month, due to the wide decline of import cost in the later stage, the increase of supply caused by partial concentration to ships, and the terminal demand to be improved, the price dropped slightly at first. However, after the introduction of CP in August, the propylene butane increased by 5 US dollars / ton, which obviously supported the market. Under the support of high import cost, it stopped falling and rebounded. During this period, propane production decreased and market supply decreased. In terms of demand, the downstream purchase is more on demand, but the upstream inventory is in the middle level, the market production and sales are stable, and the price is stable and upward.

In terms of international market, Saudi Aramco announced CP in August 2020, with propane 365 USD / T, up 5 USD / T compared with last month; butane 345 USD / T, up 5 USD / T compared with last month.

Under the hot weather in July, it was the traditional off-season demand for propane Market, but it did not have the same downturn as in previous years. The overall temperature of this year is lower than that of previous years, which is beneficial to the rise of propane. The slight rise in international oil prices this month has boosted the market to some extent. In terms of demand, downstream buyers are more active in entering the market, and the overall market shipment is better. The import of propane was significantly reduced, the port inventory was at a low level, and the overall shipment of domestic refineries was smooth. In the future, CP rose slightly in August, but its support to the market is limited. The traditional off-season has not passed, the weather is hot, and the terminal demand still needs to be improved. It is expected that the price rise will continue in August, but the range may be narrowed.

In July, domestic polycrystalline silicon ended the weak consolidation market of the previous few months, and the price rose by a breakthrough. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of polycrystalline silicon rose by 5.70% this month. As of the end of the month, the domestic price of primary polysilicon materials was in the range of 40000-45000 yuan / T. the main reason is that the market supply is tight, especially in some areas, such as Xinjiang, affected by the epidemic, traffic restrictions lead to poor transportation, the cost of polysilicon in large factories rises, and the downstream demand gradually stabilizes, with a certain recovery.

In July, some domestic polysilicon manufacturers were still in the maintenance period, so the supply pressure was significantly relieved compared with the previous month, and the supply in some markets was tight. According to statistics, as of July 30, there were 4 polysilicon manufacturers still in the maintenance period. The manufacturers mainly carried out line by line maintenance or equipment maintenance, and the domestic and domestic supply pressure was not great. In addition, due to the recent epidemic situation in Xinjiang, the external transportation of large polysilicon factories in Xinjiang was blocked, and the cost increased. Overall, the supply of fundamentals is tight. So there has been a sustained rebound in prices. Moreover, the price of imported silicon materials has also increased, further impacting the domestic market. On the whole, the price of polysilicon has generally increased by 2000-4000 yuan / ton this month.

From the perspective of terminal demand, the general rigid demand still exists, and it is warmer than that in June. With the gradual reduction of silicon material inventory of upstream and downstream manufacturers and the tightening of market supply, on the contrary, the demand for silicon wafers is rising. The operating rate of monocrystalline silicon enterprises maintains full production, and the newly expanded capacity is released on schedule. The demand for monocrystalline silicon continues to rise. At the same time, the demand for polycrystalline silicon is also associated with the boost of market demand It goes up, pushing up prices. However, from the point of view of terminal cells, it is also questionable whether the upstream silicon material price can continue to rise. According to the industry reaction, the price of polycrystalline battery chips has not been significantly increased, and the cost pressure is high. Now the price is approaching the cash cost of manufacturers. Some manufacturers of polycrystalline cells have begun to plan to overhaul and stop production. This is from home on the one hand, and more importantly, it is brought by the epidemic Under the influence of the new global epidemic situation, the export of main products in January to may in 2020 will decline, of which the export value of silicon chip, battery chip and module will be 879 million US dollars, 504 million US dollars and 6.249 billion US dollars respectively, totaling 7.633 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 12%.

In the later stage, the business club believes that the current price of polysilicon continues to rebound, mainly due to the reduction of supply, and the cycle of polysilicon de stocking has basically come to an end. It is expected that there will still be enterprises in the maintenance period in August, with the impact of the epidemic situation in Xinjiang superimposed, and the supply pressure is expected to be tight in August. However, the market can continue to rebound is also more difficult. At present, the demand for polysilicon mainly comes from domestic rigid demand. Foreign demand is still weak, and the overseas epidemic situation is still relatively severe. The export data of photovoltaic modules in June has not been released, which may still fall compared with the previous level. It still needs time to improve the external demand. It is estimated that polysilicon is currently bottoming out and stabilizing, and whether it can continue to rise in the future remains to be further observed.

Domestic cyclohexanone fell first and then consolidated, and the overall market price fell in July. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers was 6125 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 5633 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.03% within the month. The price fell by 32.40% compared with the same period last year.

In July, cyclohexanone market first fell slightly and then fluctuated in a narrow range. In the first half of the year, the spot market of pure benzene fluctuated in a narrow range, and the cost support was stable. However, the price of caprolactam in the downstream market was weak, and the orders for chemical fiber were mostly purchased on a just need basis. The pressure on the shipment of cyclohexanone was increasing. Although some factories stopped for maintenance, the spot supply was still relatively abundant and the cyclohexanone market was weak. At the end of the month, the pure benzene market was relatively strong, but the terminal demand was not significantly improved. Downstream purchasing on demand, cyclohexanone was passively and slightly explored under the cost pressure, and the market low price was reduced. However, the market confidence in the future market was insufficient, and the market transaction atmosphere was general.

Raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene rose this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene in Shandong Province dropped rapidly to 2800-2900 yuan / ton due to the impact of low price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province, and the price of downstream factories was seriously depressed. However, at this time, the downstream and traders’ bottom reading intention increased, and the price of refined low-priced goods was better, and the price began to rebound. However, due to the unprecedented pressure on the port to pick up goods, downstream buyers tend to lower prices, and high prices are generally traded. Therefore, in the first ten days of the month, the trading atmosphere in Shandong market turned to be cautious and wait-and-see, and the rebound was limited. By the middle of June, a new refinery in Dongying purchased pure benzene as starting material, driving up the price of pure benzene in surrounding refineries.

Caprolactam: the caprolactam market fell sharply in July 2020. Since the last ten days of June, the negative factors of caprolactam market have gradually appeared. The downstream textile demand is weakening, the intermediate link demand transmission is blocked, the weaving and spinning link inventory is accumulated, and the demand side weakness continues to conduct upward in July. The downstream spinning and polymerization factories begin to reduce the burden and production, and the caprolactam demand decreases, while the manufacturers maintain a high start, and the caprolactam supplier pressure increases Big. In addition, pure benzene rose to a high point of 3700 yuan / ton in June, and then began to fall. On July 1, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene fell to 3100 yuan / ton. The pressure transmission at the demand side added cost disadvantage, which accelerated the decline of caprolactam price. The spot price of caprolactam fell from 10100-10200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 9200-9300 yuan / ton in the middle and late ten days.

Adipic acid: due to fluctuation of raw materials and downstream demand, domestic adipic acid market fell first and then rose in July. In the first and middle of the month, the market demand was low, and the market bidding was lower; in the second ten days of the month, driven by the cost, the spot market offer was high with rhythm.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in July 2020, there were 32 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose on a month on month basis, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 16.7% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate. The top three commodities that increased were sulfuric acid (42.50%), butadiene (29.83%) and propane (14.43%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 18.9% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were acetone (- 38.02%), phenol (- 19.93%) and isopropanol (- 18.75%). This month, the average rise and fall was – 0.47%..

From the supply side, Hualu Hengsheng has a maintenance plan in August, but in the near future, the spot supply is relatively abundant, the shipment of cyclohexanone is blocked, and the social inventory pressure is relatively high. From the demand side, the terminal demand has not obviously improved for the time being, and the downstream caprolactam supply is also becoming abundant. The expected enthusiasm for outsourcing is still weak, and most of them are just needed goods. Business community cyclohexanone analysts predict that short-term cyclohexanone market consolidation