After the festival (10.1), the domestic ethanol market continued to rise. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic ethanol market price was 6325 yuan / ton on October 9, and 6375 yuan / ton on October 12, with an increase of 0.79% in the three days after the festival, 4.29% on a month on month basis, and 18.06% higher on a year-on-year basis. In terms of enterprises, Henan Jiaozuo Heyang Alcohol Industry Co., Ltd. has a stable annual output of 300000 tons, and the ex factory price of premium alcohol is 6350 yuan / ton, including tax. The cassava alcohol production capacity of Guangxi Jinyuan alcohol Co., Ltd. is 150000 tons / year, and the unit is in normal operation. At present, the external quotation of Guangxi General grade alcohol is up 130 yuan / ton to 6480 yuan / ton, and Dongguan general class is up 130 yuan / ton to 6580 yuan / ton, including tax. In terms of market, as of today (10.12), the domestic ethanol market in East China and Northeast China was up; the ethanol market in Northeast, East China and Shandong was up; the ethanol market in Henan was stable; and the molasses ethanol market in Guangxi was stable.

 

Quotation of 95% ethanol of some Shandong ethanol production enterprises:

 

Enterprise price (yuan / ton) device dynamics

Shandong Yusheng / 50000 T / a cassava alcohol plant shut down

Shandong Wudi Runsheng / 50000 T / a cassava alcohol plant shut down

Shandong fulichun 6400 cassava ethanol plant is normal

Shandong Chengguang general 6500/

Shandong Chengguang no water 7150/

Under the influence of high raw materials and few spot prices in the market, it is possible to rise. However, due to the current high price, the lower reaches have higher resistance to high prices, and the rising trend will not be too big. Business agency ethanol analysts predict that this week’s domestic ethanol market high volatility.

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Zinc price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the trend of zinc price in September showed an “n” shape adjustment, and the overall zinc market price fluctuated lower. As of September 30, the average price of zinc was 19723.33 yuan / ton, which was 4.21% lower than 20590.00 yuan / ton on September 1.

 

China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index

 

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According to the data of China’s National Bureau of statistics, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s index (PMI) was 51.5% in September, up 0.5% from the previous month. The manufacturing boom picked up, and the supply and demand sides rebounded simultaneously. The new export order index and import index in September were 50.8% and 50.4%, respectively higher than 1.7% and 1.4% of the previous month, and rose above the prosperity and drought line for the first time since this year. The import and export index rose above the critical point, the international market demand partially recovered, the import and export of manufacturing industry further improved, the domestic supply and demand rose synchronously, the domestic economic environment recovered, and the domestic zinc market supply and demand rose simultaneously, which was good for the zinc market.

 

Domestic zinc ingot production

 

Date output of the month (10000 tons) cumulative output (10000 tons) year on year increase (%) cumulative growth (%)

August 2020 53.9 410.9 5.1 4.3

July 2020: 52.4-356.9 – 0.2-4.6

June 2020 52.304.8 1.2 7.7

May 2020: 51.4 252.7 4.5 9.1

April 2020 51.7 201.3 7.3 10.7

March 2020 48.9 149.5 4.7 11

February 2020 — 104 — 12.9

December 2019 60.7 623.6 19.5 9.2

November 2019 59.4 569.2 13.1 9

October 2019 54.8 512.3 8.3 9.4

September 2019 54.8-458.3-18.9-9.5

August 2019 52.8 403.4 18.9 8.2

It can be seen from the statistical table of domestic zinc output that domestic zinc output rose sharply in August on a month on month basis, and the zinc concentrate processing fee remained high in September. The domestic zinc concentrate processing enterprises had sufficient production power, and the domestic zinc ingot supply was sufficient. The downward pressure of zinc Market was great.

 

Zinc import data

 

According to the latest customs data released by the General Administration of customs, in August 2020, the import of refined zinc was 46600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.08%, and a month on month increase of 5.89%. The total export of refined zinc was 1600 tons, that is, the net import of refined zinc in August 2020 was 45000 tons. From January to August 2020, the total import volume was 313400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29.13%. In August 2020, 410700 physical tons of zinc concentrate were imported, 138000 physical tons were increased by 50.7% compared with July, and 161000 physical tons were increased by 64.7% compared with August 2019. From January to August 2020, the total import volume was 2.713 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 749000 tons or 38.1%. The import volume increased significantly, the domestic zinc market supply increased, the zinc market oversupply increased, and the downward pressure of zinc market increased.

 

Analysis, review and Prospect

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, September is the peak season for traditional production, known as “gold, nine silver and ten”. In September this year, the domestic economy continued to warm up, the demand for zinc market rose slowly, and the demand for winter storage of smelter production was expected to rise in the near future. On the supply side, domestic zinc production rose, zinc concentrate imports increased significantly, refined zinc imports rebounded, and zinc market supply increased significantly. The overall supply and demand of zinc market have both recovered, and the rising power of zinc price is insufficient. At the time of the U.S. election, the risk aversion psychology of the market increased, the decline of stock market and futures market dragged down the spot market, the foreign epidemic continued to rise without obvious improvement, which affected the resumption of production and work, and the decline of global economic recovery expectation affected the zinc market. Generally speaking, both supply and demand of domestic zinc market are picking up, while the negative pressure of international zinc market is greater. The rising power of zinc market is insufficient and the downward pressure is greater. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate and fall in the future.

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According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose slightly in September. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2666.67 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.42% compared with the price of 2655.56 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.98%.

 

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In September, the price trend of fluorite was mainly fluctuating, and the overall price rose slightly. Recently, manufacturers reported that the fluorite orders were generally in general, and the on-site merchants were not willing to sell at a low price. The supply of fluorite on the floor was slightly tense, and the price of fluorite was slightly lower. Domestic fluorite manufacturers have been operating stably, the on-site mines and flotation devices have been operating normally, and the fluorite market price has risen slightly. In September, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price was lower, and the terminal downstream was mainly purchased on demand. As of the end of the month, the 97 fluorite wet powder price in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2600 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Fujian was 2600-2700 yuan / ton, the 97 fluorite wet powder price in Henan was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and the 97 fluorite wet powder price in Jiangxi Province was 2600-2800 yuan / ton. The domestic fluorite price has not changed much recently The trend is mainly stable.

 

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite decreased slightly. As of the end of the month, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 8440 yuan / ton, with a drop of 1.52% in September. The downward trend of hydrofluoric acid market price has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the increase of fluorite price is very limited. In recent years, the sales of the automobile industry are not as good as that. The market trend of the refrigerant downstream of the terminal has remained at a low level. The demand for refrigerants has not been significantly improved. The recovery of foreign economy is not obvious. The export situation of refrigerant terminal is general. However, the domestic air conditioning industry starts at a low level and the demand for maintenance and after-sales service is weak. On the whole, the foreign demand has not improved significantly. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price drops slightly. However, the market price is not available. The mainstream price of R22 in large domestic enterprises is 15000-15500 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of R134a is low, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream start-up is not high, and the demand for R134a is still cold. In recent years, the purchasing situation of downstream industry is general, and the price trend of fluorite is mainly stable.

 

Generally speaking, the market situation of the downstream refrigerant industry is general, but the price of hydrofluoric acid market is weak recently. However, the fluorite market reflects a slight shortage of supplies in the near future. Chen Ling, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the fluorite market price may have an upward trend in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the data from the bulk list of business associations, aniline prices rose this week. On September 20, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4650-4900 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4900-5000 yuan / ton; on September 27, the price of aniline in Shandong was 5000-5200 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 5200-5300 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.69% over last week.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

In terms of cost, the northern downstream stock has come to an end, and the Shandong market has been light this week. Pure benzene enterprise festival inventory, cut prices, this week the market in Shandong weakened again. On Sunday (September 27), the listed price of pure benzene was 3000-3450 yuan / ton (average price 3400 yuan / ton), up 0.29% over last week.

 

This week, the production price of nitric acid in East China was 1516.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week.

 

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Before the festival, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is good, enterprise shipment is smooth, inventory is low, and the price goes up.

 

3、 Future expectations

 

In terms of cost, at present, the demand for pure benzene in the downstream is not strong. In addition, the domestic hydrobenzene shutdown and maintenance devices are gradually restored, which is expected to have an impact on the pure benzene market. It is expected that benzene will maintain weak operation before the festival.

 

Downstream purchasing enthusiasm to support aniline prices, is expected to trend strong next week, may rise.

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According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose in September. As of the 27th day, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 5400 yuan / ton, which was 6.93% higher than 5050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of 24.48%.

 

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In September, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose, and the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride market improved. In the near future, downstream procurement was still mainly on demand, and the downstream DOP price rose. In addition, the price of o-benzene did not change much, so the market price of phthalic anhydride rose. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started normal operation, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride was less than 60%. Domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride was tight. The downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchased on demand. The traders in the market were bullish, and the exchange trading market was improved. The market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China rose, and high-end transactions were limited. In East China, the main source negotiation of neighboring France was 5400-5500 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene process was 5100-5300 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China was 5300-5500 yuan / T, and the observation state of phthalic anhydride field was still in existence. Due to the shortage of supply, domestic phthalic anhydride price increased.

 

In September, the domestic price of o-benzene was stable. By the end of the month, the price of o-benzene was 4400 yuan / T, which was the same as the price of 4400 yuan / T at the beginning of the month. The stable price of domestic o-benzene played a certain role in supporting the cost of phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the price of imported o-benzene in the port area was lower, and the external quotation of o-benzene was mainly stable. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation, the actual list was discussed in detail, and the on-the-spot situation of o-benzene merchants The price trend of phthalic anhydride rose under the influence of tight supply.

 

The DOP market price in the downstream of phthalic anhydride rose in September. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of DOP at the end of September was 7266.67 yuan / ton, which was 4.31% higher than that of 6966.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of isooctanol in the field rose, DOP device operated stably, the spot supply was normal, and the DOP market price rose. The market of plasticizer industry was higher. The DOP market quotation was 7350-7650 yuan / ton. Downstream customers were active in purchasing. The transaction of plasticizer was temporarily stable. The price trend of DOP rose in September, which had a positive support for the price of phthalic anhydride. The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose.

 

In the future, the domestic phthalic anhydride price trend is mainly volatile, but the transaction price of plasticizer is general, and the pressure of continuous rising of plasticizer price is great. In addition, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant is running stably. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride in October will fluctuate mainly, and there is no lack of possibility of falling.

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