Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, DOP price of plasticizer soared this week, DOP price broke through the 10000 yuan mark. As of November 19, many DOP manufacturers have quoted more than 10000 yuan / ton, some of which have increased by about 1000 yuan / ton every day. The average price of DOP is more than 9500 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 13.52%. The sharp rise of DOP price caused market panic, factory prices changed three times a day, and some manufacturers sealed their plates to stabilize the market mentality.

Upstream market of industrial chain

 
It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride that the market of phthalic anhydride rose in November, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply this week. On the 17th, the price of phthalic anhydride rose by 500 yuan / ton in a single day. The cost of DOP rose sharply, and DOP price rose greatly. However, on the 18th and 19th, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized, and on the 19th, some manufacturers of phthalic anhydride made a slight correction. The support of phthalic anhydride to the rise of DOP was weakened, and the upward momentum of DOP in the future market was weakened.

The price of octanol increased sharply in this month, and the price of octanol rose sharply in November. On the 19th, the price of octanol stabilized, while the rising power of DOP weakened.

Downstream market of industrial chain

PVC prices rose sharply in November, the price of PVC increased sharply. From the trend chart trend, PVC prices tend to be stable, PVC support for DOP in the future market is weakened, and the upward momentum of DOP in the future market is weakened.

Macroeconomic environment

The fourth leaders’ meeting of regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) will be held by video on November 15, 2020. Witnessed by the leaders of the 15 countries, the trade ministers of all countries signed the RCEP agreement. Currently, RCEP is jointly signed by ten ASEAN countries and 15 countries including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. Now, the total population of the 15 member countries in 2019 will reach 2.27 billion, GDP will reach 26 trillion US dollars, and the total export volume will reach 5.2 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 30% of the global total. RCEP will usher in a strong driving force for regional and global economic growth in East Asia. The favorable macroeconomic environment is good for the whole chemical industry chain and DOP industry chain.

Market review and future expectation

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with DOP data of the business agency, the RCEP agreement has brought new strong impetus to macroeconomic growth, stimulated the rise of the industrial chain, and triggered a sharp rise in prices this week. In terms of raw materials, the prices of phthalic anhydride and octanol rose sharply this week, which stimulated DOP prices to follow. This week, DOP prices soared, and some manufacturers quoted more than 10000 yuan. On the downstream side, PVC prices rose sharply this week, which was good for DOP market and supported the rise of DOP price. In the near future, the demand of the industrial chain has not fundamentally changed. From the price trend of phthalic anhydride and octanol, the price of phthalic anhydride and octanol tends to be stable, and the upward momentum of DOP is weakened. PVC price growth slowed down, support for DOP rise weakened. Generally speaking, the good news stimulated the rise of DOP price this week, but the actual supply and demand did not change much. The price rise was a castle in the air, and the support was insufficient. The motive force of the future DOP rise was insufficient, and the DOP price was expected to stabilize.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, since the middle of August this year, the domestic market of spandex has been rising. As of November 16, the average ex factory price of 40d was 40800 yuan / ton, with an increase of 32.04% in the past three months and a year-on-year increase of 28.87%.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D                   30D                40D

Zhejiang 41000-45000 40000-41000 35000-37000

Shandong 42000-45000 40000-42000 35000-38000

Fujian 42000-45000 40000-42000 35000-38000

Jiangsu 41000-45000 40000-41000 35000-37000

Spandex manufacturers have also issued price increase notices for many times. On the one hand, it is mainly from the upstream cost push up. On the other hand, the downstream terminal customers’ orders are well followed up. The manufacturers’ overstocked inventory in the early stage is gradually cleared, and the inventory level has dropped to the historical low level, and even some batch numbers are tense. The prices of various specifications have increased by 1000-2000 yuan / ton from the beginning to 2000-3000 yuan / ton in the later stage 。 At present, the 40d price of the factory ranges from 35000 to 43000 yuan / ton. The market is still strong and high, and the industry is operating at a high level near 90%, and the supply of goods is still slightly tight.

Pure MDI of upstream raw materials began to rise. From the beginning of August, the spot market price of pure MDI in China was 13500 yuan / ton, and 35000 yuan / ton in early November. It took three months, and the price more than doubled. In particular, since the National Day holiday, the market heard that there is a maintenance plan, the operating load maintained a low level of around 45%, and the price rose strongly. However, due to the resistance of downstream customers and the lack of transaction atmosphere, the focus of trading in November continued to be weak, and the price began to fall. As of November 13, the spot market price of pure MDI referred to 29000-29500 yuan / ton of telegraphic transfer in barrels.

However, the price of PTMEG, the main raw material of spandex, was relatively moderate. The market price was weak in August and rose slowly since September. At the beginning of September, the mainstream price of 1800 molecular weight goods in the spot market was 13800-14500 yuan / ton, and the actual price was negotiated at 13700-14300 yuan / ton. In November, the cost is stronger, the supply of PTMEG market is still tight, and the intention of the factory to support the price continues. At present, the mainstream quotation of 1800 molecular weight goods source is 16500-17000 yuan / ton, and the actual price negotiation is 15500-16800 yuan / ton. In terms of plant, in Shanghai BASF 110000 tons of plant load reduction operation, Yizheng Dalian 40000 tons of plant shutdown, PTMEG industry started 71%, start carefully.

In the “silver 10″ market, the downstream market has been active in purchasing and selling, and the backlog of replenishment demand in the early stage has burst, ushering in the peak sales season since this year. However, in November, the purchase and sales weakened, and the increase of follow-up orders was less than expected. It will also enter the traditional off-season of the industry. After the domestic “double 11″ orders, the follow-up connection of orders is weak, and the product inventory is expected to gradually accumulate. However, with the approaching of Christmas and Spring Festival, the market cooling rate is expected to be limited in the short term under the stimulation of holiday orders. At present, Xiaoshao area is generally started, and the level of round knitting machine and wrapping yarn market is maintained at 70-80%; enterprises in Changshu maintain stable start-up, and the starting level of round knitting machine market is maintained at around 60%; the market in Fujian is fair, with lace around 60% and warp knitting around 80%; Guangdong is cautious in starting, and the market of yarn wrapping, warp knitting and circular knitting is maintained at 60-70%.

Business agency analysts believe that the cost side of pure MDI spot market price shock and fall, but PTMEG is still running, supporting role still exists. Downstream customers temporarily maintain on-demand pick-up, new orders follow-up slightly gentle, the atmosphere of market observation is gradually strong. In the short term, the price of spandex will remain high.

1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of octanol in Shandong Province rose sharply. This week, the average price of octanol mainstream ex factory price in Shandong increased from 7483.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8016.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 7.13%, 15.63% compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol market rose this week, with the octanol commodity index of 58.95 on November 13.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the main octanol manufacturer’s factory quotation in Shandong Province rose this week: the octanol quotation of Jianlan chemical was 8200 yuan / ton at the end of this week, 750 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the octanol quotation of lihuayi was 8000 yuan / ton at the end of this week, 500 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the quotation of Hualu Hengsheng octanol was 7850 yuan / ton at the end of this week It increased by 350 yuan / ton.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol rose this week, with the quotation rising from 6868.27 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6891.91 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.34%, and a decrease of 6.86% compared with the same period last year. Upstream raw material market price rise, affected by the supply and demand side, has a positive impact on the price of octanol.

The downstream market of octanol, DOP factory price rose sharply this week. The DOP quotation rose from 7683.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8383.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 9.11% and a year-on-year increase of 14.32% over the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices rose, downstream customers were more enthusiastic about octanol procurement, octanol demand was general, and later market operators were more likely to wait for DOP trend.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle and late November, the market trend of octanol in Shandong Province may fluctuate and rise slightly. The upstream propylene market rose, the raw material support was strong, the downstream DOP market also rose slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was high, the octanol supply was normal. Octanol analysts believe that: in the late November of Shandong octanol market in supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of octanol market or a small surge rise.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the current domestic market price of aggregated MDI is 22325 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5.00% during the week, a rise of 17.35% on a month on month basis and a rise of 78.60% on a year-on-year basis. The main manufacturers announced the latest guidance price, traders mainly wait-and-see attitude, the quotation has no obvious change. At present, the negotiated price of Wanhua goods in various regions is about 22000-23000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is about 20500-21500 yuan / ton (including tax barrel self raised price). Traders hold a wait-and-see attitude, business community aggregate MDI, analysts expect short-term MDI market consolidation.

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders Market:

Enterprise model price

Linyi Santong Chemical Co., Ltd. Wanhua material: 22500 yuan / T

Linyi Santong Chemical Co., Ltd. Shanghai Material: 20500 yuan / T

Nanjing Tanqing Trading Co., Ltd. various models: 21500 yuan / ton

Guangzhou Boshun Chemical Co., Ltd. Wanhua material: 23000 yuan / ton

Guangzhou Boshun Chemical Co., Ltd. Shanghai Material: 21500 yuan / ton

Shandong Bosu New Material Co., Ltd. $22500 / T

Shandong Bosu New Material Co., Ltd. Shanghai Material: 20500 yuan / ton

From November 2 to November 6, 2020, the market price of antimony ingot in East China will remain stable at 42500 yuan / ton.

On November 8, the antimony commodity index was 59.16, unchanged with yesterday, down 42.18% from the cycle’s highest point 102.32 (2012-10-16), and 25.93% higher than the lowest point of 46.98 on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

The domestic antimony ingot market price remained stable this week. With the rising prices in the overseas market, most domestic insiders are bullish on the future market. In addition, there are still few imported ore ends in the early stage, domestic raw materials are tight, and the price of ore end is high. The cost pressure of antimony products is relatively high. Domestic manufacturers mainly support the price. In addition, the environmental protection and production restriction in the surrounding areas of the main production areas in the near future, the domestic output is affected to a certain extent, and the supply of antimony ingots is slightly strained. As of the 6th day, the domestic market price of 2% low bismuth antimony ingot was 41750 yuan / ton, 1:00 yuan / ton was 42250 yuan / ton, 0 piece was 43000 yuan / ton, and the average price of 2 pieces of high bismuth antimony ingot was 40750 yuan / ton, which was 500-1000 yuan / ton higher than last week. The market price of antimony trioxide increased with the trend of antimony ingot. By the end of the week, 99.5% of the average price of antimony trioxide was 38500 yuan / ton, 99.8% was at 39500 yuan / ton, which was 500-1000 yuan / ton higher than last week’s price.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 44 th week (11.2-11.6) of 2020, there are 16 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal plate with a month on month rise and fall list, with neodymium metal (4.25%), neodymium oxide (3.91%) and dysprosium metal (3.41%). There were three kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis. The top three products were magnesium (- 0.39%), lead (- 0.26%) and cobalt (- 0.25%). This week, all rose or fell by 1.43%. This week, the metal market is dominated.

The Business Association believes that under the current tight supply and demand and cost pressure, foreign price rise, antimony product manufacturers are reluctant to sell, worry about future market supply, and the improvement of downstream demand and other favorable factors, the future market price is expected to be stable and strong.