According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of January 6, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 8400 yuan / ton, which was 866 yuan / ton lower than that on January 1 (9266 yuan / ton), with a decrease of 9.35%; and 700 yuan / ton lower than that on December 1 (9100 yuan / ton), with a decrease of 7.69%.

Demand weakened, downstream wait-and-see, n-butanol prices down

After new year’s day, the domestic n-butanol market continued to decline for several days. Affected by the weakening demand, strong wait-and-see sentiment of downstream procurement, slow replenishment and other factors, n-butanol market went down for three consecutive days after new year’s day, with a single day decline of 200-300 yuan / ton. On the 6th, Shandong Luxi n-butanol factory quotation reference 8000 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day, Shandong lihuayi n-butanol factory quotation reference 8300 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day The reference price of domestic n-butanol factory is 8000-8900 yuan / ton, which is 600-900 yuan / ton lower than that before the festival. As of January 6, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol reference 8400 yuan / ton, compared with January 1 (reference price 9266 yuan / ton), the average price decreased 866 yuan / ton, down 9.35%; compared with December 1 (reference price 9100 yuan / ton), the average price decreased 700 yuan / ton, down 7.69%.

Upstream, after the new year’s day, on January 4, the propylene market price in Shandong continued to rise slightly. According to the price chart of the business club, the price of propylene declined all the way at the end of December, and began to rise on New Year’s day. By the 4th, the price had been raised by about 100 yuan / ton. The overall market was stable on the 5th and 6th. At present, the transaction volume of propylene market was between 7200 yuan / ton and 7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 7250 yuan / ton. Factory inventory is general, stable delivery.

In terms of crude oil, on January 5, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose sharply, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $49.93/barrel, up US $2.31 or 4.85%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the settlement price of the main contract was 53.60 US dollars / barrel, or 2.51 US dollars or 4.91%. International oil prices soared on Tuesday, with WTI and Brent crude oil up nearly 5%, mainly due to Saudi Arabia’s unexpected announcement that it will voluntarily reduce production in February and March, and other OPEC + member countries maintaining stable production.

It is expected that n-butanol will be able to maintain stability and go down in the future market

At present, the overall purchasing atmosphere of n-butanol market is general, and the confidence of the industry is slightly reduced. However, as the Spring Festival is approaching, and the logistics has been shut down in succession, it is expected that the downstream will start a new round of pre festival goods preparation in a short period of time, but there is always resistance to high prices in the downstream. Therefore, the n-butanol data division of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will maintain stable operation, with callback space and downward short space Time will be limited.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic PP market fell in December, and the spot prices of various brands had a certain downward trend. As of January 1, 2021, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8150 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.11% compared with the average price level in early December.

Cause analysis

In terms of PP upstream propylene, according to the data of the business community’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose slightly in December and then fell rapidly. At the beginning of the month, the price was 7712 yuan / ton, at the end of the month, the price was 7209 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 6.52%, and the amplitude reached 11.99%. At present, there are many problems in the manufacturers, such as the accumulation of warehouse, the deviation of operation, and the increase of low price supply. The downstream market is more empty than more, and the overall situation is slightly depressed, mainly for the purchase of rigid demand. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price may continue to decline in the near future.

The current propylene market fell, PP cost side support weakened. According to the data monitored by the business association, the PP (wire drawing) market gradually fell in December, and some brands were not reduced by a small margin. Early November PP inventory low, futures rose sharply, into December PP has been high. Taking plastic weaving enterprises as the representative, the downstream cost pressure increases, the profit space is compressed, and the resistance is generally intensified. In addition, the PP peak season has come to an end, the demand continues to be weak, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is low. At the end of the month, the production dealers increased the profit margin and actively completed the task. Petrochemical inventory reduction will be obvious.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of January 1, the mainstream offer of Z30S (fiber) by domestic producers and traders had fallen slightly compared with the beginning of this month, with the price of about 8316.67 yuan / ton, 8.27% lower than the average price level in early December. In November, domestic restorative consumption growth supported the price of fiber materials, and in early December, the price of fiber PP was also at a high level. At present, the decline rate of domestic total inventory has slowed down and rebounded. In addition, the operation rate of PP plant was increased, the number of overhauled plants was reduced, and new plants were put into operation, which increased the supply pressure. The recent PP futures shock down operation, bad spot market. In addition, as the holiday approaches, the demand for fiber PP will further shrink in the short term, and the price of PP (fiber) may still have room for decline.

In December, PP meltblown material market is relatively flat, and the price tends to be stable. As of new year’s Day 1, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by business community was 10850 yuan / ton. Recently, a small-scale rebound occurred in some areas of the epidemic situation in China, but the overall situation was stable, and there was no large-scale rise in the demand for anti epidemic materials such as masks. There is a surplus of suppliers in the melt blown cloth manufacturing market, and the price of some melt blown cloth manufacturers is close to 15000 yuan / ton, resulting in serious profit dilution. Overseas epidemic outbreak trend is obvious, many countries once again announced the implementation of strict closure of the city. There is still a certain demand for international medical protection products, and the price of imported materials is also stable. The business association thinks that the domestic melt blown PP price has entered the platform period, and it is expected that the overall trend of melt blown PP market will be stable.

Future forecast

Business community PP analysts believe: December domestic PP spot market to fall mainly. Upstream propylene market fell in mid month, weakening support for PP cost side. At present, PP drawing material and fiber material market is in a downward trend, PP (melt blown) price tends to be stable. Due to the lifting of the new year’s environmental production restriction policy, the downstream replenishment is expected to rise, but the strength may be limited. However, in the long run, PP production capacity and supply have increased, the overall incremental trend remains unchanged, and supply side pressure increases. As the current time approaches the Spring Festival, business associations believe that the demand side may continue to tighten, and PP prices may still have room for downward trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the trichloromethane market in Shandong has been running weakly and stably recently. As of December 31, the average price of trichloromethane in Shandong was about 3650 yuan / ton, down 1.35% compared with the same period last week and up 5.8% compared with the beginning of this month.

Unit capacity and start up

Jinling City, Shandong Province: 440000 tons / year – 30%

Dongying Jinmao: 120000 tons / year

Luxi Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. < 400000 tons / year < 50%

160000 tons / year

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

Recently, the trichloromethane market in Shandong is weak and stable. Affected by the falling price of raw material liquid chlorine, the cost side support of trichloromethane is insufficient, and the market supply is relatively stable. However, the demand in the downstream market is flat in the off-season, and the shipment of enterprises is not smooth. The industry is obviously bearish. At present, the price of Shandong is about 3600 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen is about 3700 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu is about 3700 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw material methanol, some enterprises in Southwest China have stopped production or reduced production load due to gas restriction, while some enterprises have stopped or restricted sales, and the supply side has been tightened; coal and natural gas tend to be stronger, and the cost side of methanol has a better support; on the other hand, under the influence of low temperature, some formaldehyde enterprises start to reduce production, and the overall demand is general, about 2355 yuan / ton at present; the liquid chlorine market continues to decline, and the industry is still in decline Affected by the recent rain and snow weather, transportation is limited, and the shipping situation of enterprises is general. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 1200-1400 yuan / ton.

The trend of the downstream refrigerant market is strong, some enterprises are out of stock, and the quotation is suspended. The demand for chloroform in the industry is insufficient, and it can be restored only after the new quota comes out. At present, the heat of market inquiry is reduced, there are few new orders, and most of the operators are on the sidelines. The solvent, pharmaceutical and pesticide industries start flat, and the support for chloroform is general.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that the current trichloromethane market negative superposition, light trade in the industry, coupled with the recent rain and snow weather led to limited enterprise shipping, downstream demand is poor, but dichloromethane production enterprise inventory pressure is not big, it is expected that the price of trichloromethane will be weak and stable in a short time.

The average price of TDI in East China was 12666.67 yuan / ton on the 31st, down 0.26% from 17833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and up 10.47% from last year, according to the data from the business club’s block list. On December 30, the TDI commodity index was 67.02, which was the same as yesterday, down 72.98% from 248.02 (2016-10-19), the highest point in the cycle, and up 27.51% from 52.56, the lowest point on May 5, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The domestic TDI market is in a stalemate, and the atmosphere in the market is cold as a whole. The attitude of the industry tends to stabilize the market and support the price. The offer is mainly stable, and the downstream market just needs to enter the market. The low price in the market is relatively convergent. At present, after the supplier announced the price policy, the willingness to support the market and stabilize the price is obvious, the downstream part of the inquiry has increased, the overall purchase follow-up is still weak, and the short-term market maintains the consolidation operation.

On the upstream side, the trend of toluene was weak. Crude oil fell due to bad news during the week, which led to the weakness of toluene’s external market. The domestic toluene Market followed the decline, and the toluene market was weak in the later stage.

According to the analysis of the Data Engineer of the business society, at present, the domestic TDI market is mainly reorganized and operated, the atmosphere in the market is quiet, the dealers’ offer is stable, the downstream market just needs to purchase, and the domestic TDI market continues to reorganize and operate in the short term.

According to the statistics of business news agency, as of December 30, the price of nylon filament DTY in Jiangsu was 17000 yuan / ton, 734 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month, or 4.51%, 1.39% higher than that at the beginning of the month; the price of nylon POY was 14500 yuan / ton, 740 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month, or 5.38%, 1.54% higher than that at the beginning of the month; the price of nylon FDY was 18266 yuan / ton, 900 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month, or 5.18%, 1.48% higher than that at the beginning of the month 。

In December, the former was boosted by the good news of the new coronavirus vaccine, and later was dragged down by the mutation of the new coronavirus. The crude oil price rose as a whole in December. As of December 29, the settlement price of WTI crude oil was US $48.00/barrel, up 7.74% from the beginning of December. Cyclohexanone rose by 7.85% in December; Sinopec raised the listing price of caprolactam in December due to the decrease of operation rate, and the price of caprolactam rose by 4.7% in December; upstream raw material supply of PA6 was tight, and the price center of gravity moved up, but downstream factories were resistant to high price sources, and the replenishment operation was cautious, which dragged down the rising market, and the price had a callback at the end of the month.

In December, nylon filament continued to rise. Strong support from the raw material side and rising costs. In addition, orders have picked up. It is understood that there are obvious differences in demand for different products. Among them, the fabric made of Matt nylon FDY has a considerable sales volume, which is mostly used for windbreaker, outdoor clothing in autumn and winter, and the factory price is increased by 500-1000 yuan / ton. In addition, there is no lack of enterprises to replenish the warehouse and prepare goods before the festival. Manufacturers are willing to support the price. Most of them hold the price after raising the quotation, so the price before the festival is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

Business analysts believe that the cost side support is acceptable, downstream demand is also good, at the end of the year, the ex factory price of nylon filament has exceeded the same period last year. In addition, it is expected that the nylon filament will continue to be strong before the Spring Festival.