1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business community (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on February 19, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 7575 yuan / ton, up 3.74% from 7350 yuan / ton before the festival (9th), and 14.23% from the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

After the holiday, the PVC market rose, and the price continued to rise in the first two days of construction, with a total increase of 3.74%. The daily increase of enterprises was about 100-300 yuan / ton. Now some quotations have risen to more than 8000 yuan / ton, and the market price is not much. Some of them stopped to wait and see. The first wave of price increase after the Spring Festival has started. Two days after the start of construction, the futures price rose sharply, driving the spot price. Meanwhile, during the Spring Festival, due to the extremely cold weather in the United States, the production capacity decreased, the international supply was tight, and the PVC export volume increased, which helped the PVC price rise. At present, there are too many enterprises that stop reporting PVC. They mainly issue orders and are cautious about the market. They are bullish. This year, the downstream demand started ahead of schedule, and the market is expected to be good. Boosted by the positive factors of rising futures price, good export and stronger demand, the PVC market is relatively strong, and the price is expected to continue to rise.

 

In terms of spot, the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 7750-8050 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in East China is around 7900-8000 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hebei is 7750-7900 yuan / ton, the range of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou is 7900-8050 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou is 8000-8050 yuan / ton, and the main stream price of PVC common calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 8000-8150 yuan / ton.

 

Futures, futures prices rose, boosting the spot market. On the 19th, the main PVC futures contract 2105 opened at 7960 yuan / ton and closed at 8220 yuan / ton. The settlement price of the previous day was 7955 yuan / ton, up 3.33%. The trading range was 7885-8250 yuan / ton, with 395602 transactions and 358610 positions.

 

Regional varieties 19 Feb 2005

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide process: 8000-8050 yuan / ton

Guangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8000-8150 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide process: 7750-7900 yuan / ton

Hangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 7900-8050 yuan / ton

 

Upstream crude oil: on February 18, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $60.53/barrel, down US $0.61. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell, settlement price rose, settlement price of the main contract at 63.93 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.59 U.S. dollars. On Thursday, oil prices rose. Brent once rose above US $65, and then the market high fell, mainly due to the impact of investment profit taking. Previously, due to the extremely cold weather in the United States, the decline of production capacity and the increase of demand have driven oil prices to rise for several days. Despite the sharp reduction of US crude oil inventory, the market is still uneasy about the current virtual high oil price, and the high selling has led to the decline of oil prices.

 

Ethylene, the recent external ethylene market overall upward trend. Asia’s ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 18th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $852-860 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $827-835 / T. The price of ethylene market in Europe increased greatly. By the 18th, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1164-1177 / T, CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1150-1161 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States soared. By the 18th, the price was 914-926 US dollars / ton. Recently, the ethylene market in Europe, America and Asia showed a rising trend. Generally speaking, during the Spring Festival holiday, the whole ethylene market kept rising, the market trading atmosphere was warm and the transaction was positive.

 

On February 19, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable, and the reference price was 3050.00, which was 1.08% lower than that on February 1 (3083.33). The price of raw material orchid charcoal was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently. The downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing calcium carbide. The output of calcium carbide has risen, and the market supply exceeds the demand. Calcium carbide in the future fluctuated slightly.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

PVC analysts of business news agency believe that the current market is strong, PVC futures prices are rising, spot market prices are rising along with it, and the export volume is increasing, as well as downstream enterprises start earlier than in previous years, and the demand side support is gradually stronger. Under the multiple positive support, the market expectation is good, and it is expected that the PVC market will continue to rise in the short term.

PVA

On February 19, 2021, in the price rise and fall list of fluorine chemical industry, there were 1 commodity that rose, 0 commodity that fell, and 6 commodities that rose or fell to 0. Rising products include chloroform; stable products include fluorite, hydrofluoric acid, R22, R134a, aluminum fluoride and cryolite.

 

On February 19, the price trend of fluorine chemical raw material market was temporarily stable, with the price of raw material fluorite at 2741.11 yuan / ton. Recently, some fluorite plants in China started to work normally, and some mines and flotation plants in the plant were shut down. The fluorite supply in the plant was tight, but the downstream market rose recently, and the fluorite price was affected and went up. As of the 19th, the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and volatile in the future.

 

In the near future, the market trend of the downstream refrigerant industry is general, the operating rate remains low, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. However, due to the reduction of the supply in the market, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. As of the 19th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10577.78 yuan / ton. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has gone up, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. The enterprises reflect that the current hydrofluoric acid spot goods in the market The market of hydrofluoric acid is still bullish. Chen Ling, an analyst of business community, believes that the market of hydrofluoric acid may be slightly higher.

 

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the trading market is general. The ex factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

 

In recent years, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong has been rising. The overall demand of the downstream market has not changed much. The demand for trichloromethane is general. As the downstream market begins to stock up, the market price of trichloromethane has risen slightly. At present, the start-up of chloroform production enterprises in Shandong is high, the market spot supply is stable, and the shipping situation of enterprises is flat. In order to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future, enterprises bid for shipping. At present, Shandong offers 2350-2450 yuan / ton.

 

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

 

In the near future, the price trend of downstream refrigerants R22 and R134a is temporarily stable, the raw material chloroform continues to be weak, the support of cost side is weakened, the downstream goods preparation is finished, the traders continue to withdraw from the market, the demand side continues to decline, and the market center moves down. Due to the higher price of hydrofluoric acid, the affected price of refrigerants rises slightly. Refrigerant R134a prices rose slightly, the market is strong operation. Near the end of the year, the downstream construction continued to decline, but the raw material support was strong, and the refrigerant market rose slightly.

PVA

According to the block data monitoring of the business community, affected by the end market holiday, the domestic ethyl acetate Market was weak. As of February 8, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 7812 yuan / ton, down 2.5% compared with the same period last week and up 14.47% compared with the same period last month.

 

At present, the domestic ethyl acetate market continues to be weak, the terminal market is affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the demand side support is insufficient, the inventory of ethyl acetate manufacturers is accumulated, the enterprises are forced to give up profits to ship, which drives the surrounding market to reduce the price. As the market is gradually closed, the industry holds a wait-and-see attitude. At present, it is about 7800-7900 yuan / ton in East China, 7600-7700 yuan / ton in North China and 8500-8600 yuan / ton in South China.

 

In terms of raw materials, the domestic acetic acid market is rising at a high level. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream market demand is still stable. In addition, the parking of large North American factories in the near future and the increase of enterprises’ exports in East China have led to the shortage of spot supply in the market, and the overall inventory of acetic acid market is low, so it is difficult to make up the supply side gap in a short time. In terms of ethanol, corn prices continue to be high, ethanol production costs are high, the pre Festival units of enterprises basically maintain low load, and the early downstream stock is obvious. It is expected that the domestic ethanol market will be mainly sorted out in the short term. At present, the ethanol market in East China is about 7175 yuan / ton.

 

Ethyl acetate analysts of business news agency believe that the current domestic ethyl acetate Market trading is poor, and enterprises are bidding for sales. Due to the strong price of raw materials, some enterprises have been in a state of loss. In order to prevent excessive pressure on the future market, it is expected that ethyl acetate enterprises will still make profits in a short period of time.

PVA

1. Price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on February 9 was 3000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous day, down 28.29% compared with the beginning of the month, and down 2.91% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

In February, the domestic LNG market plummeted. As of the 8th, it had been in a continuous decline, with a decline of about 28%. The price of some liquid plants was less than 3000 yuan / ton. On the 9th, the market decline slowed down, and Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan and other places continued to decline. This week is about to usher in the traditional new year. Most of the downstream units are shut down. The demand for vehicles is sharply reduced. However, the market supply is sufficient. The liquid plant units are operating at reduced load and continue to sell at reduced prices to reduce the pressure on inventory. However, the situation of light trading is difficult to reverse. During the spring, the temperature is warmer, the logistics is not smooth, and the demand is reduced. At the same time, most liquid plants start up and sell normally, and the contradiction between supply and demand is increasing. The liquid price may be under pressure, but due to the cost, the range is not large.

 

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on February 9 was 3000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous day, down 28.29% compared with the beginning of the month, and down 2.91% compared with the same period last year. Inner Mongolia 2800-3200 yuan / ton, Shaanxi 2700-3150 yuan / ton, Shanxi 2950-3200 yuan / ton, Ningxia 3100-3300 yuan / ton, Henan 3200-3600 yuan / ton, the price of liquid around a large area down.

 

Regional specifications rose and fell from February 9 to February 1

Inner Mongolia ﹣ LNG ﹣ 2800-3200 ﹣ 4100-4450 – 900-1250

Shaanxi LNG Company: 2700-3150 3900-4370 – 750-1220

Shanxi LNG 2950-3200 4200-4500 – 1000-1300

Ningxia ﹣ LNG ﹣ 3100-3300 ﹣ 4100-4400 – 800-1100-

Henan LNG Company: 3200-3600 4250-4500 – 650-900

Sichuan ﹣ LNG ﹣ 3400-3500 ﹣ 3850-4000 – 350-500

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of February 7, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2245 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 1.10% and a year-on-year increase of 1.81%. As the Spring Festival approaches, there is a shortage of transport vehicles, which is not conducive to the circulation of methanol goods. The domestic methanol market is difficult to change in the near future.

 

On February 8, the reference price of urea was 2143.33, up 4.05% compared with February 1 (2060.00). In the middle of February, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is limited, the urea supply is increasing, the international urea price is rising, and the domestic urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term.

 

For dichloromethane, the market of methane chloride in Shandong Province was temporarily stable on February 9. The mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market was 2880 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of chloroform market was 2330 yuan / ton. At present, the market is dominated by shock adjustment. The trading situation in the industry is general. The enterprises start to reduce the burden, the inventory is low, and the upstream liquid chlorine market is high, which has a good support for the price of methane chloride The purchasing demand is flat and the support to the market is insufficient. Shock adjustment is expected in the short term.

 

Recently, the price of ethylene has risen. On February 5, the price was 969.00 US dollars per ton. On February 8, the average price of ethylene was 970.75 US dollars per ton, up 0.18%. The current price has dropped 10.18% month on month, and the current price has increased 15.02% year on year. With tight supply in the oil market, rising international oil prices and strong cost support, business community data analysts predict that the external price of ethylene will rise next.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Liquefied natural gas analysts of business news agency believe that: at present, the support of demand side continues to decline, while the market supply is sufficient, and the liquid plants continue to reduce prices and discharge stocks before the festival to seek benefits. As the traditional new year is coming, the situation of light trading is difficult to reverse, and the expectation will continue to be lowered. However, due to the cost, the downward space is limited. It is expected that the market will be stable and weak during the Spring Festival, and wait for the guidance of the demand side after the festival.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

On February 5, 2021, there were 3 kinds of commodities that rose, 0 kinds of commodities that fell, and 4 kinds of commodities that rose or fell to 0. The main products that rose included hydrofluoric acid, R22 and R134a; the stable products included fluorite, aluminum fluoride, cryolite and chloroform.

 

On February 5, the price of fluorite in the market of fluorine chemical raw materials rose, with the price of raw fluorite being 2741.11 yuan / ton. Recently, some fluorite plants in China started to work normally, and some mines and flotation plants in the plant were shut down. The fluorite supply in the plant was tight. However, the downstream market rose recently, and the fluorite price was affected and rose. As of April 4, the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and volatile in the future.

 

In the near future, the market trend of the downstream refrigerant industry is general, the operating rate remains at a low level, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. However, due to the reduction of the supply in the market, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is rising. As of the 5th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10577.78 yuan / ton. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is rising, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60% The market of hydrofluoric acid is still bullish. Chen Ling, an analyst of business community, believes that the market of hydrofluoric acid may be slightly higher.

 

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the trading market is general. The ex factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

 

In recent years, the price trend of trichloromethane in Shandong is weak. The downstream market is in the off-season as a whole, and the demand for trichloromethane is poor. With the completion of goods preparation in the downstream market, the trichloromethane market continues to decline. At present, the starting of chloroform production enterprises in Shandong is high, the market spot supply is stable, and the shipment situation of enterprises is flat. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the logistics transportation is limited to a certain extent, and the enterprises bid for shipment in order to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2250-2350 yuan / ton.

 

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

 

In the near future, the downstream refrigerants R22 and R134a have increased, the raw material trichloromethane continues to decline, the support of cost surface is weakened, the downstream goods preparation is finished, the traders continue to withdraw from the market, the demand side continues to decline, and the market center moves down. Due to the high price of hydrofluoric acid, the price of refrigerants rises slightly. Refrigerant R134a prices rose slightly, the market is strong operation. Near the end of the year, the downstream construction continued to decline, but the raw material support was strong, and the refrigerant market rose slightly.

PVA